當比特幣的價格波動時，交易者和投資組合經理想要答案，而不是意見。經常被扔掉的核心數字？皮爾遜相關。

這些東西不僅僅用於數據書呆子或數學迷。對於需要決定的任何人來說，這是BTC真的是一個避風港，還是在傳統市場上鎖定？

When Bitcoin’s price swings, traders and portfolio managers want answers, not opinions. The core number that often gets thrown around? Pearson correlation. It’s a simple stat that shows how tightly Bitcoin’s moves are tied to stocks, other crypto, or, sometimes, absolutely nothing else.

當比特幣的價格波動時，交易者和投資組合經理想要答案，而不是意見。經常被扔掉的核心數字？皮爾遜相關。這是一個簡單的統計數據，它顯示了比特幣的動作與股票，其他加密貨幣的緊密聯繫，或者有時絕對沒有其他。

This stuff isn’t just for data nerds or math fans. It’s for anyone who needs to decide: Is BTC really a safe haven, or does it move in lockstep with traditional markets? Correlation measurements help you spot risk, build a smarter portfolio, and avoid surprises when markets get rowdy.

這些東西不僅用於數據書呆子或數學迷。這是針對需要決定的任何人：BTC真的是一個避風港，還是在傳統市場上鎖定了鎖定？相關測量可幫助您發現風險，建立更明智的投資組合，並在市場變得吵鬧時避免驚喜。

When stocks drop or rally, a high correlation warns you Bitcoin might follow suit (goodbye, hedge). When BTC does its own thing, that’s a different play entirely.

當庫存下降或集會時，高度相關警告您的比特幣可能會效仿（再見，樹籬）。當BTC做自己的事情時，這完全是不同的。

Bottom line: correlation isn’t some niche tool. It’s a way to measure risk and plan your next move with confidence. In this guide, I’ll explain how Pearson correlation works and how you can use it to become a better investor.

底線：相關不是某些利基工具。這是一種衡量風險並充滿信心地計劃您的下一步行動的方法。在本指南中，我將解釋Pearson相關性如何工作以及如何使用它來成為更好的投資者。

Key highlights:

關鍵亮點：

What is Pearson correlation?

什麼是皮爾遜相關性？

Let’s put the jargon aside for a minute. The Pearson correlation coefficient—commonly just called “correlation”—is basically a number that tells you how much two things move together.

讓我們把術語放在一分鐘的時間裡。 Pearson相關係數（通常稱為“相關”）基本上是一個數字，它告訴您兩件事一起移動了多少。

In finance, it’s used to see if the price of Bitcoin goes up when stocks go up, or if BTC falls while another asset skyrockets. It measures the “togetherness” of their ups and downs.

在金融中，它用於查看股票上漲時比特幣的價格上漲，還是BTC在另一個資產飛機上下降。它衡量了他們的跌宕起伏的“團結”。

No complex stats degree needed. If you can track a number on a scale from -1 to 1, you’re halfway there.

無需複雜的統計程度。如果您可以在-1到1的比例尺上跟踪一個數字，那麼您就是其中的一半。

A correlation of +1 means two assets are moving in perfect harmony. If asset A goes up by 1%, then asset B will also go up by 1%. A correlation of -1 means they are moving completely in opposite directions. If asset A goes down by 0.5%, then asset B will go up by 0.5%.

+1的相關性意味著兩個資產以完美的和諧發展。如果資產A增長1％，那麼資產B也將增長1％。 -1的相關性意味著它們在完全相反的方向上移動。如果資產A下跌0.5％，那麼資產B將上升0.5％。

Most real-world correlations fall somewhere between these extremes. The closer you get to +1 or -1, the more reliable the relationship. A +0.8 says there’s a strong positive link—maybe not identical moves, but they usually trend together. A -0.7 warns you that the assets often work against each other.

大多數現實世界中的相關性均介於這些極端之間。您越接近+1或-1，關係就越可靠。 A +0.8表示存在牢固的積極聯繫 - 可能並不完全相同，但它們通常會在一起趨勢。 A -0.7警告您，資產通常相互對抗。

Examples: Making correlation real

示例：使關聯真實

Let me try to use some real-world analogies.

讓我嘗試使用一些現實世界中的類比。

If you plot the daily price changes for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, you’ll notice that when the stock index goes up or down "sharply," Bitcoin usually follows suit. But if stocks move slowly or sideways for a period, then Bitcoin might do its own thing.

如果您繪製比特幣和標準普爾500指數的每日價格變化，您會注意到，當股票指數上升或下降時，比特幣通常會效仿。但是，如果股票緩慢移動或側面一段時間，那麼比特幣可能會做自己的事情。

If you're scanning a chart and see that Bitcoin is typically rising when a major altcoin like Ethereum is falling, then that might suggest a period of strong sector rotation. People are selling out of one asset to buy another. But if both top coins are moving in tandem, then it could be a broader risk-on or risk-off mood setting the tone.

如果您正在掃描圖表，並看到像以太坊這樣的主要山寨幣下降時比特幣通常會上升，那麼這可能表明一段時間的扇形旋轉時期。人們正在從一個資產中賣出來購買另一種資產。但是，如果兩個頂級硬幣都同時移動，那麼這可能是一種更廣泛的風險或風險情緒，設定了基調。

Measuring Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and cryptocurrencies

測量比特幣與股票和加密貨幣的相關性

Bitcoin compared with S&P 500 and gold

比特幣與標準普爾500指數和黃金相比

The most common correlation studies keep coming back to a few go-to pairings:

最常見的相關研究不斷回到一些首選配對：

This graph shows the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq, S&P500, and gold over the past year.

該圖顯示了過去一年比特幣與納斯達克股票，S＆P500的相關性。

As you can see, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is overall much lower than the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq or Bitcoin and S&P 500.

如您所見，比特幣和黃金之間的相關性總體上要比比特幣與納斯達克或比特幣與標准銷育500之間的相關性要低得多。

Bitcoin compared with other cryptocurrencies

比特幣與其他加密貨幣相比

Crypto doesn’t live in a vacuum. Comparing Bitcoin to top altcoins, especially Ethereum, checks if price moves across the sector are synchronized or scattered. Heavy alignment signals a risk-on/risk-off mood for all crypto. Divergence says traders are picking favorites or jumping in and out based on project news.

加密不生活在真空中。比較比特幣與頂級替代幣，尤其是以太坊，可以檢查整個領域的價格移動是否同步或分散。沉重的對準標誌著所有加密貨幣的風險/風險心情。 Divergence說，貿易商正在根據項目新聞選擇收藏夾或跳入和跳出。

Pearson correlation coefficients between cryptocurrency pairs for the entire period (daily return)

整個時期的加密貨幣對之間的Pearson相關係數（每日返回）

This image shows the correlation between some of the biggest cryptocurrencies. As you can see, the correlation is generally quite high, and almost always above 0.5.

此圖顯示了一些最大的加密貨幣之間的相關性。如您所見，相關性通常很高，幾乎總是高於0.5。

Limitations and considerations with correlation data

相關數據的局限性和考慮因素

Correlation has its place, but it’s far from perfect. It’s a guide, not gospel.

相關性有其位置，但遠非完美。這是指南，而不是福音。

Several things can turn correlation readings upside down:

幾件事可以使相關讀數顛倒：

But the biggest pitfall? Confusing correlation with causation. Even a high correlation doesn’t mean one asset is moving because of the other. Sometimes, both respond to the same outside factor (like a Fed announcement or inflation spook). Other times, the link is a statistical fluke—appearing strong for a few weeks, then evaporating overnight.

但是最大的陷阱？與因果關係混淆。即使是高相關性，也不意味著一個資產是由於另一個資產而移動的。有時，兩者都對相同的外部因素做出反應（例如美聯儲公告或通貨膨脹恐怖）。其他時候，該鏈接是一種統計氟，持續了幾週，然後蒸發過夜。

Professional analysts often adjust their perspective by watching Bitcoin price forecast trends for extra context. Tying together price predictions, volatility measurements, and correlation findings gives a clearer, more complete story.

專業分析師通常通過觀看比特幣價格預測趨勢的額外背景來調整其觀點。將價格預測，波動率測量和相關性發現結合在一起，可以更清晰，更完整。

I should also mention: just because Bitcoin was glued to stocks last month doesn’t mean it will stay that way. Correlation

我還應該提到：僅僅因為比特幣上個月粘在股票上並不意味著它將保持這種狀態。相關性