比特幣價格，貨幣政策和量化寬鬆：拋物線的未來？

探索比特幣價格，貨幣政策和量化寬鬆之間的相互作用，並洞悉潛在的未來激增。

Bitcoin's journey is intertwined with the world of monetary policy. Let's dive into how quantitative easing and other financial levers might influence its price, setting the stage for potential parabolic movements. We'll explore key insights and predictions based on recent trends.

比特幣的旅程與貨幣政策的世界交織在一起。讓我們深入了解定量寬鬆和其他財務槓桿可能會影響其價格，為潛在的拋物線運動奠定了基礎。我們將根據最近的趨勢探討關鍵見解和預測。

Bitcoin's Resilience Amidst Market Fluctuations

比特幣在市場波動中的彈性

As of September 24, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $112,838, showcasing its resilience after recovering from early session lows near $111,000. This intraday gain of 0.73% signals that bulls are stepping in at critical support levels. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, anticipates Bitcoin will “move up smartly again toward the end of the year,” reflecting a bullish sentiment despite recent volatility.

截至2025年9月24日，比特幣（BTC）的交易約為112,838美元，在從早期的低點恢復到1111,000美元的情況下，展示了其韌性。該盤中增益為0.73％的信號，表明公牛正在關鍵支撐水平上介入。 MicroStrategy執行董事長Michael Saylor預計，比特幣將“在年底之前再次向上移動”，這反映了儘管最近的波動，但比特幣反映了看漲的情緒。

Similar rebounds are seen in other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin, indicating a broader market recovery.

在以太坊，XRP和Dogecoin等其他主要加密貨幣中也可以看到類似的籃板，這表明市場恢復更廣泛。

Arthur Hayes' Bold Prediction: $3.4 Million Bitcoin by 2028?

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的大膽預測：到2028年，比特幣為340萬美元？

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a looser US monetary policy could propel Bitcoin to unprecedented heights. Drawing parallels with the monetary policy during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hayes suggests that if the Federal Reserve engages in quantitative easing and commercial banks increase lending, Bitcoin is “set to go parabolic” over the next three years.

Bitmex聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）認為，較寬鬆的美國貨幣政策可以推動比特幣升至前所未有的高度。海耶斯與貨幣政策相似，海耶斯（Hayes）建議，如果美聯儲從事量化寬鬆和商業銀行的貸款增加，則比特幣將在未來三年內“拋棄”。

Hayes estimates that the Federal Reserve could create $7.66 trillion in new credit by 2028, while the commercial banking system could generate $7.569 trillion. Referencing the COVID-era dynamics, he points out, “The slope of the percentage increase in Bitcoin to a dollar of credit growth [during COVID] was approximately 0.19. Ladies and gentlemen, that results in a 2028 Bitcoin price prediction of $3.4 million!”

海耶斯估計，到2028年，美聯儲可能會創造76.6萬億美元的新信貸，而商業銀行系統可能會產生7.569萬億美元。他指出，提到Covid時代的動態，“比特幣增加到一美元的信貸增長的百分比斜率約為0.19。

While Hayes himself doubts Bitcoin will reach $3.4 million, he confidently asserts it will be “markedly higher than the approximately $115,000 that it trades at today.”

儘管海斯本人懷疑比特幣將達到340萬美元，但他自信地斷言，它將“明顯高於今天交易的約115,000美元”。

Corporate Adoption and Supply Dynamics

公司採用和供應動態

Corporate adoption is significantly impacting Bitcoin's supply dynamics. Companies and ETFs are collectively purchasing more Bitcoin daily than what is mined, creating upward pressure on the price. Saylor notes that companies are capitalizing on Bitcoin by replacing traditional dividends and buybacks with Bitcoin treasury reserves, further solidifying capital structures.

公司採用嚴重影響了比特幣的供應動態。公司和ETF的每天都比開采的比特幣更多，從而給價格上漲。塞勒指出，公司正在用比特幣財政部儲備代替傳統的股息和回購來利用比特幣，從而進一步鞏固了資本結構。

Potential Pitfalls and Cautionary Notes

潛在的陷阱和警告筆記

Despite the bullish outlook, caution remains warranted. LMAX market strategist Joel Kruger suggests that while the market is entering a historically strong quarter, “the balance of risks leans toward consolidation or modest downside unless bitcoin can decisively clear overhead resistance.”

儘管看上去看待，但仍有謹慎的態度。 LMAX市場策略師喬爾·克魯格（Joel Kruger）建議，儘管市場進入歷史悠久的季度，但“風險平衡傾向於鞏固或謙虛，除非比特幣可以果斷地清除高空阻力。”

Technical analysis indicates that maintaining consolidation above $112,000 is crucial, while a decisive break below this level could lead to deeper corrections. Monitoring key support levels, like Matrixport's identified $109,899 level, is vital for gauging market direction.

技術分析表明，將合併以上的合併維持在$ 112,000至關重要，而低於此水平的決定性突破可能會導致更深層的校正。監視關鍵支持水平，例如Matrixport確定的$ 109,899水平，對於衡量市場方向至關重要。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, will Bitcoin actually hit $3.4 million? Maybe, maybe not. But the confluence of monetary policy, corporate adoption, and market dynamics certainly makes for an interesting ride. Keep your eyes peeled, folks, because in the world of Bitcoin, anything can happen!

那麼，比特幣實際上會達到340萬美元嗎？也許，也許不是。但是，貨幣政策，公司採用和市場動態的匯合無疑使旅程變得有趣。伙計們，請睜大眼睛，因為在比特幣的世界中，一切都會發生！