自從1月20日達到創紀錄的高度超過109,000美元以來，比特幣的價格下跌了24％

對比凸顯了驅動這兩個資產價格的不同因素。更重要的是，這也表明，尋求價值存儲的投資者，甚至是與股票市場不相關的​​替代投資，可能會使黃金比比特幣更好。

Their fortunes, however, have diverged lately. Bitcoin's price has declined 24% since hitting a record high of more than $109,000 on Jan. 20—the day crypto-friendly President Donald Trump took office.

然而，他們的命運最近有所不同。自從1月20日達到創紀錄的109,000美元以來，比特幣的價格下跌了24％，這是當天對加密貨幣友好的總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上任。

Gold, on the other hand, has kept rallying, gaining nearly 8% in the same span. (Both still have seen handsome gains over the past year.)

另一方面，黃金在同一跨度中持續了近8％。 （在過去的一年中，兩者仍然看到了漂亮的收益。）

The contrast highlights the different factors driving the two assets' prices. More importantly, it also suggests that investors looking for a store of value—or even an alternative investment uncorrelated to the stock market—would probably do better with gold over Bitcoin.

對比凸顯了驅動這兩個資產價格的不同因素。更重要的是，這也表明，尋求價值存儲的投資者，甚至是與股票市場不相關的​​替代投資，可能會使黃金比比特幣更好。

"Gold is a safe haven," says Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research. Yardeni sees gold prices hitting $4,000 by the end of the decade, but doesn't maintain a Bitcoin target. "While there are probably some people who tell themselves they're buying Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against U.S. inflation or the financial system, what it really comes down to is that it's a super speculative asset."

Yardeni Research首席市場策略師Eric Wallerstein說：“黃金是一個避風港。” Yardeni看到黃金價格到本十年末達到4,000美元，但沒有保持比特幣目標。 “雖然可能有些人告訴自己，他們正在購買比特幣作為對美國通貨膨脹或金融體系的長期對沖，但真正歸結為這是一項超級投機資產。”

Bitcoin's annual price volatility has been about 50% in recent years, according to BlackRock, compared with about 15% for gold.

根據貝萊德（Blackrock）的數據，近年來比特幣的年度價格波動率約為50％，而黃金的價格約為15％。

Bitcoin's identity as a risk asset has come front and center lately, as big-name growth stocks have also stalled alongside the digital currency, which traded at $84,525 on Friday. Trump's decision to launch a $Trump meme coin—interpreted cynically by some crypto fans—may be one reason for fading investor enthusiasm. But a general uneasiness about the tech sector and broader economy could be another.

比特幣作為風險資產的身份最近出現了，因為大牌增長股票也與數字貨幣旁停滯不前，該數字貨幣週五的交易價格為84,525美元。特朗普決定發起$特朗普的模因硬幣（由一些加密貨幣粉絲憤世嫉俗地解釋）可能是逐漸消失投資者熱情的原因之一。但是，對技術部門和更廣泛的經濟的普遍不安可能是另一個。

Worries about the breakneck pace of artificial intelligence spending, tariffs, and government budget cuts—along with weak consumer sentiment numbers—have stoked stock market uncertainty. For instance, the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which drove stock market returns in 2024, have fallen roughly 7% since Election Day through Friday afternoon.

擔心人工智能支出，關稅和政府預算削減的速度（以及消費者情緒數字較弱）都遭受了股票市場的不確定性。例如，自2024年推動股票市場回報的巨大七種股票以來，自選舉日至週五下午以來，大約下降了7％。

"When Trump won the election, there was a rush of exuberance into everything," says Trade Nation Senior Market Analyst David Morrison. "Now the rally is tired...there is a bit of a de-risking going on."

貿易國高級市場分析師戴維·莫里森（David Morrison）說：“當特朗普贏得選舉時，一切都湧入了一切。” “現在集會累了……有點危險。”

Bitcoin's current struggles are especially notable because—in theory—right now should be good times. The cryptocurrency rocketed after Trump's election victory, amid promises of a friendly regulatory environment and perhaps even a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The digital asset appeared to be gaining more mainstream acceptance in the investment community, as more asset managers, including BlackRock, began sponsoring Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

比特幣目前的鬥爭特別值得注意，因為從理論上講，現在應該是美好時光。在特朗普大選勝利之後，加密貨幣在有友好的監管環境甚至比特幣戰略儲備的承諾之中迅速發起。隨著包括貝萊德（Blackrock）在內的更多資產管理人員開始贊助比特幣交易所交易的資金，數字資產似乎在投資界獲得了更多主流認可。

Meanwhile, the market jitters hurting Bitcoin do, in fact, mean good times for gold. The precious metal settled at $2,848.50 Friday, just 3.9% below its record high of $2,963 hit on Monday. Gold is in the middle of a multiyear bull market that began around the time of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

同時，實際上，市場損害比特幣的市場卻意味著黃金的美好時光。週五，貴金屬定價為2,848.50美元，比周一打擊2,963美元的創紀錄高點3.9％。黃金正處於俄羅斯2022年2月入侵烏克蘭時期的多年牛市中間。

Geopolitical worries have always been bullish for gold. The U.S. decision to freeze Russian assets days after the invasion spooked central banks around the world—they began buying gold to supplement dollar reserves, which they worried could be at risk if they crossed the U.S. Last year, central banks represented about 20% of gold demand, roughly double from 2021.

地緣政治的擔憂一直是黃金的看漲。在入侵幾天后，美國決定凍結俄羅斯資產的決定震驚了全球央行 - 他們開始購買黃金來補充美元儲備，如果去年越過美國越過美國，他們擔心這可能會面臨風險，中央銀行約佔黃金需求的20％，大約是2021年的兩倍。

Most of all there is Trump's attempt to reset the U.S.'s relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin. While the move may pay dividends if there is ultimately peace in Ukraine, so far Trump's angling has upset longstanding strategic relationships and raised questions about the strength of U.S. relationships elsewhere around the globe, like Taiwan.

最重要的是，特朗普試圖重置美國與俄羅斯弗拉基米爾·普京的關係。雖然此舉可能會帶來好處，如果烏克蘭最終有和平，那麼到目前為止，特朗普的垂釣者使長期以來的戰略關係感到困擾，並提出了有關我們在全球其他地方（例如台灣）之間關係的質疑。

Trump's governing style means geopolitical tensions and government uncertainty will likely continue—supporting gold prices in the process. Just consider the will-he or won't-he tariff drama with Canada and Mexico; or the firing and rehiring of government employees.

特朗普的管理風格意味著地緣政治緊張局勢和政府的不確定性可能會繼續 - 在此過程中支持黃金價格。只需考慮他的意誌或不會與加拿大和墨西哥的關稅戲劇；或解僱和重新僱用政府僱員。

"Its clear previous alliances are being redrawn" says Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree. "As a result of that I think we are seeing a lot more demand for gold as a hedge against the previous world order changing."

WisdomTree商品研究負責人Nitesh Shah說：“它顯然正在重新劃定。” “因此，我認為我們認為對黃金的需求更多，這是對以前的世界秩序改變的對沖。”

The upshot: Bitcoin may or may not be a wise long-term bet. But evidence from 2025 shows it is broadly fueled by investor risk appetites—more like a growth stock than an alternative asset like gold.

結果：比特幣可能是一個明智的長期下注。但是2025年的證據表明，這是由投資者風險食慾大致助長的 - 比諸如黃金之類的替代資產更像增長股票。