比特幣價格、逢低買入和分析師觀點：在加密貨幣海洋中航行

分析師預測比特幣價格下跌是買入機會。借助 VanEck 和渣打銀行的見解，我們探索潛在的價格走勢和投資策略。

Ah, Bitcoin. The digital gold that keeps us all on our toes. With analysts throwing around predictions like confetti, let's dive into what's happening with Bitcoin's price, the 'buy-the-dip' strategy, and what the experts are saying.

啊，比特幣。數字黃金讓我們所有人保持警惕。隨著分析師們像五彩紙屑一樣拋出各種預測，讓我們深入了解比特幣價格的變化、“逢低買入”策略以及專家的說法。

The Bitcoin Rollercoaster: What's the Deal?

比特幣過山車：怎麼回事？

Bitcoin's been dancing in the mid-$107,000 range, but don't get too comfy. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick sees a dip below $100,000 as "inevitable," citing U.S.-China trade tensions. But hold on—he also calls any pullback a prime buying opportunity. It's like waiting for the perfect wave, dude!

比特幣一直在 107,000 美元中間波動，但不要太放鬆。渣打銀行 (Standard Chartered) 的杰弗裡·肯德里克 (Geoffrey Kendrick) 認為，鑑於美中貿易緊張局勢，跌破 10 萬美元是“不可避免的”。但等等——他還稱任何回調都是絕佳的買入機會。這就像在等待完美的浪潮，伙計！

Buy the Dip? Analysts Weigh In

逢低買入？分析師介入

Kendrick isn't alone in his bullishness. He points to gold-to-Bitcoin flows as a key indicator. People ditching gold for Bitcoin? That's a sign of stabilization, possibly marking a bottom. He's sticking to his forecast of $200,000 by year-end and a whopping $500,000 by 2028. His advice? Be ready to pounce when it dips below $100,000—potentially "the last time Bitcoin is EVER below" that mark.

肯德里克並不是唯一一個持樂觀態度的人。他指出黃金對比特幣的流動是一個關鍵指標。人們放棄黃金轉而購買比特幣？這是穩定的跡象，可能標誌著底部。他堅持自己的預測，到年底將達到 20 萬美元，到 2028 年將達到 50 萬美元。他的建議是什麼？當比特幣跌破 10 萬美元時，準備好突襲——這可能是“比特幣最後一次跌破該水平”。

VanEck's View: A Mid-Cycle Reset

VanEck 的觀點：週期中期重置

VanEck's ChainCheck report paints a similar picture. They see Bitcoin's October correction as a liquidity-driven mid-cycle adjustment, not a bear market. Leverage has normalized, on-chain activity is maturing, and Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat debasement is strengthening. It's like Bitcoin's hitting puberty and getting its act together.

VanEck 的 ChainCheck 報告描繪了類似的情況。他們將比特幣 10 月份的回調視為流動性驅動的周期中期調整，而不是熊市。槓桿已經正常化，鏈上活動正在成熟，比特幣作為對沖法幣貶值的作用正在加強。這就像比特幣進入青春期並開始行動一樣。

Liquidity and Asian Influence

流動性和亞洲影響力

VanEck analysts highlight that global liquidity, measured by M2 money supply, explains over half of Bitcoin's price variance. They also note that Asian trading sessions increasingly drive Bitcoin's price movements, with recent declines tied to tightening liquidity in Asia. Keep an eye on those Asian markets, folks!

VanEck 分析師強調，以 M2 貨幣供應量衡量的全球流動性解釋了比特幣價格差異的一半以上。他們還指出，亞洲交易時段日益推動比特幣價格走勢，近期比特幣價格下跌與亞洲流動性收緊有關。伙計們，請密切關注亞洲市場！

Institutional Interest and Maturing Markets

機構興趣和成熟市場

Speculative leverage peaked in early October, triggering Bitcoin's drop. But VanEck sees this as a healthy "deleveraging event" that clears excess speculation and creates entry opportunities. Plus, institutional participation in regulated markets like CME is growing, signaling a maturing derivatives landscape. Bitcoin's growing up and joining the big leagues.

投機槓桿在10月初達到頂峰，引發比特幣下跌。但范埃克認為這是一次健康的“去槓桿化事件”，可以清除過度投機並創造進入機會。此外，機構對芝商所等受監管市場的參與正在增加，這表明衍生品格局日趨成熟。比特幣正在成長並加入大聯盟。

Other Voices in the Crypto Chorus

加密合唱團中的其他聲音

Galaxy's CEO, Mike Novogratz, believes Bitcoin will hold above $100,000. He thinks a move by President Trump on the Federal Reserve could ignite a rally amid anticipated rate cuts. Meanwhile, Glassnode's Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show a crucial support level above $120,000. It's a tug-of-war between bulls and bears!

Galaxy 首席執行官 Mike Novogratz 相信比特幣將保持在 10 萬美元以上。他認為特朗普總統對美聯儲的舉動可能會在預期降息的情況下引發反彈。與此同時，Glassnode 的比特幣 MVRV 極端偏差定價帶顯示出 120,000 美元以上的關鍵支撐位。這是多頭和空頭之間的拉鋸戰！

So, What's the Play?

那麼，有什麼玩法呢？

The consensus? Bitcoin's volatility is part of the game. Analysts see dips as buying opportunities, driven by factors like liquidity, institutional interest, and its role as a macro hedge. VanEck even includes Bitcoin in its model portfolios at allocations between 1.5% and 6%, recommending systematic exposure and opportunistic buying during pullbacks.

共識？比特幣的波動性是遊戲的一部分。分析師將下跌視為買入機會，受到流動性、機構興趣及其宏觀對沖作用等因素的推動。 VanEck 甚至將比特幣納入其模型投資組合中，配置比例在 1.5% 至 6% 之間，建議在回調期間進行系統性敞口和機會主義購買。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個中本聰

Alright, here's my take. Bitcoin's like that quirky friend who's always late but always brings the party. The dips can be scary, but they're also chances to load up before the next surge. Just remember, don't bet the farm. Crypto is still the Wild West, and nobody wants to end up broke in a digital ghost town. But with the right strategy, a little patience, and maybe a sprinkle of luck, you could be riding that Bitcoin wave all the way to the bank.

好吧，這是我的看法。比特幣就像那個古怪的朋友，他總是遲到，但總是帶來聚會。下跌可能會很可怕，但它們也是在下一次上漲之前上漲的機會。請記住，不要拿農場做賭注。加密貨幣仍然是狂野的西部，沒有人願意在數字鬼城中破產。但只要採取正確的策略、一點耐心，再加上一點點運氣，你就可以乘著比特幣浪潮一直到銀行。

So, keep your eyes peeled, your wits sharp, and your crypto wallets ready. This Bitcoin ride is far from over, and who knows? Maybe we'll all be sipping Mai Tais on a crypto-funded beach someday. Cheers, New Yorkers!

因此，請保持警惕，保持敏銳的智慧，並準備好您的加密錢包。比特幣之旅還遠未結束，誰知道呢？也許有一天我們都會在加密貨幣資助的海灘上喝麥泰酒。乾杯，紐約人！