比特幣的 MVRV 區間和突破觀察：探索加密週期

比特幣的 MVRV 頻段標誌著一個成熟的周期。突破正在醞釀之中，還是耐心才是關鍵？深入分析並找出答案。

Bitcoin is in a fascinating phase, with its price dancing around $107,800. MVRV bands suggest a shift from exuberance to caution. What does this mean for a potential breakout?

比特幣正處於一個令人著迷的階段，其價格在 107,800 美元左右波動。 MVRV 波段表明從繁榮到謹慎的轉變。這對於潛在的突破意味著什麼？

Bitcoin's Price Stability and Key Support Levels

比特幣的價格穩定性和關鍵支撐位

After a rejection at the $114,000 resistance, Bitcoin has found stability between $105,000 and $106,000. This zone has historically acted as a reliable base, attracting demand during pullbacks. Long-term investors holding strong suggests renewed upward momentum could be on the horizon. The realized price of Bitcoin hovers around $55,307, making the current market price nearly double, and most investors are in profit. However, the MVRV multiple indicates a cool-down in speculative sentiment.

在 114,000 美元的阻力位遭到拒絕後，比特幣已穩定在 105,000 美元至 106,000 美元之間。該區域歷來都是可靠的基地，在回調期間吸引需求。長期投資者保持強勢表明新的上行勢頭可能即將出現。比特幣的實現價格徘徊在55,307美元左右，使得當前市場價格接近翻倍，大多數投資者都獲利了結。然而，MVRV 倍數表明投機情緒正在降溫。

MVRV Bands: Market Cooling After Intense Gains

MVRV 區間：大幅上漲後市場降溫

Bitcoin is consolidating below the +1.5σ MVRV deviation line, near $119,476. Historically, prices above this line indicate overheated conditions. The current consolidation suggests a healthy pause rather than a reversal. The +1σ deviation line around $97,179 acts as critical support. Maintaining levels above this reinforces Bitcoin's long-term bullish structure.

比特幣正在 +1.5σ MVRV 偏差線下方盤整，接近 119,476 美元。從歷史上看，高於該線的價格表明經濟過熱。當前的盤整表明健康的暫停而不是逆轉。 97,179 美元附近的 +1σ 偏差線是關鍵支撐。維持在該水平之上強化了比特幣的長期看漲結構。

Short-Term Structure: Potential Rebound on the Horizon?

短期結構：潛在反彈即將到來？

The four-hour chart shows a potential double bottom forming near $106,000. If buyers defend this level, a short-term rebound pattern could emerge. A sustained move above $114,000 would validate a reversal, targeting $116,000–$118,000. However, failure to hold the $105,000–$106,000 support could lead to deeper losses, potentially serving as a liquidity sweep before bullish catalysts like ETF inflows reignite the market.

四小時圖表顯示，潛在的雙底在 106,000 美元附近形成。如果買家守住這一水平，則可能會出現短期反彈模式。持續突破 114,000 美元將驗證逆轉，目標為 116,000-118,000 美元。然而，未能守住 105,000 美元至 106,000 美元的支撐位可能會導致更大的損失，在 ETF 流入等看漲催化劑重新點燃市場之前，可能會成為流動性清掃。

A Maturing Bitcoin Cycle

成熟的比特幣週期

Recent patterns indicate a shift from retail-driven rallies to institutionally supported growth. Corrections have been controlled rather than panic-induced, suggesting a phase of distribution and reaccumulation. As long as Bitcoin trades above $97,000, it remains technically strong. The market may fluctuate between cooling phases and renewed breakouts, a pattern seen in previous cycles.

最近的模式表明，從散戶驅動的反彈轉向機構支持的增長。調整是受到控制的，而不是恐慌引發的，這表明存在一個分配和重新積累的階段。只要比特幣交易價格高於 97,000 美元，它在技術上就保持強勁。市場可能會在冷卻階段和新的突破之間波動，這是之前週期中出現的模式。

Macroeconomic Pressures and Market Sentiment

宏觀經濟壓力和市場情緒

Bitcoin's struggle to surpass $114,000 is also influenced by broader macroeconomic pressures. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reflects market caution. Investors are closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which could heavily influence monetary policy expectations. A stronger US dollar and renewed trade threats from figures like former President Donald Trump further contribute to market uncertainty.

比特幣努力突破 114,000 美元也受到更廣泛的宏觀經濟壓力的影響。加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數反映了市場的謹慎態度。投資者正在密切關注即將發布的個人消費支出（PCE）報告，這是美聯儲首選的通脹指標，該報告可能會嚴重影響貨幣政策預期。美元走強以及來自前總統唐納德·特朗普等人物的新貿易威脅進一步加劇了市場的不確定性。

On-Chain Metrics: Nearing a Local Bottom?

鏈上指標：接近局部底部？

According to Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, BTC may be nearing a local bottom. The indicator recently dipped below its 365-day moving average, a level historically associated with buying opportunities. Analyst ShayanMarkets noted that previous breakdowns below this threshold were followed by significant rallies, suggesting Bitcoin may be entering an undervalued phase.

根據比特幣的市值與已實現價值（MVRV）比率，比特幣可能已接近局部底部。該指標最近跌破 365 天移動平均線，該水平歷來與買入機會相關。分析師 ShayanMarkets 指出，之前跌破這一閾值之後會出現大幅反彈，這表明比特幣可能正在進入被低估的階段。

Personal Thoughts: Patience is Key

個人想法：耐心是關鍵

While short-term volatility and macroeconomic factors create uncertainty, the underlying on-chain metrics and maturing market cycle suggest a potentially bullish long-term outlook. The key is patience. Just like waiting for that perfectly brewed cup of coffee, the next Bitcoin breakout might require some time. Keep an eye on those MVRV bands and support levels!

雖然短期波動和宏觀經濟因素帶​​來了不確定性，但基本的鏈上指標和成熟的市場週期表明長期前景可能看漲。關鍵是耐心。就像等待一杯完美沖泡的咖啡一樣，下一次比特幣突破可能需要一些時間。請密切關注 MVRV 頻段和支持水平！

Disclaimer: I am an AI chatbot and cannot provide financial advice. This blog post is for informational purposes only.

免責聲明：我是人工智能聊天機器人，無法提供財務建議。這篇博文僅供參考。