川普上任後比特幣市場預計將發生重大轉變

隨著自稱為「加密貨幣總統」的美國總統川普就職，市場內部人士和投資者都在熱切關注加密貨幣市場是否會維持其勢頭。

As U.S. President Donald Trump begins his term, market insiders and investors are keeping a close eye on whether the crypto market will maintain its momentum. Their anticipation is understandable, given that over the past year, Bitcoin's price has surged by about 125 percent, outpacing the annual returns of both the U.S. stock market and gold. Heightened expectations for pro-crypto policies have propelled Bitcoin to reach the so-called "dream level" of $100,000 for the first time.

隨著美國總統川普開始就任，市場內部人士和投資者正在密切關注加密貨幣市場是否會保持其勢頭。他們的預期是可以理解的，因為在過去的一年裡，比特幣的價格飆升了約 125%，超過了美國股市和黃金的年回報率。對支持加密貨幣政策的期望提高，推動比特幣首次達到所謂的 10 萬美元「夢想水平」。

According to market observers, the outlook for U.S. crypto policy has never been better. Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, enthusiastically touted Bitcoin, stating, "Never in financial history has anything reached $2 trillion [in size and] disappeared."

市場觀察家認為，美國加密貨幣政策的前景從未如此美好。 Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合夥人兼研究主管湯姆·李 (Tom Lee) 熱情地吹捧比特幣，他表示：“在金融史上，從未有任何東西達到 2 萬億美元規模卻消失了。”

Such dramatic growth was accompanied by Trump's bold promises during the presidential election campaign, including eliminating regulations in the crypto sector and designating Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset.

如此巨大的成長伴隨著川普在總統競選期間的大膽承諾，包括取消加密貨幣行業的監管以及將比特幣指定為國家戰略儲備資產。

Moreover, Trump has filled key administration positions with pro-crypto figures. Paul Atkins, known for his favorable stance on digital assets, was nominated as the next chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent drew attention for including Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in his personal portfolio. Notably, Elon Musk is also poised to head the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, while former PayPal executive David Sacks was named the new White House "cryptocurrency and AI czar."

此外，川普還任命了支持加密貨幣的人物來填補關鍵的政府職位。因對數位資產持支持態度而聞名的保羅·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 被提名為美國證券交易委員會下一任主席。財政部長提名人斯科特貝森特因將比特幣交易所交易基金納入其個人投資組合而引起關注。值得注意的是，馬斯克還準備領導新成立的政府效率部，而前 PayPal 高管大衛薩克斯被任命為新任白宮「加密貨幣和人工智慧沙皇」。

In a recent report, senior research fellows Kim Kab-lae and Hwang Sei-woon of the Korea Capital Market Institute highlighted that, "With the Republican Party now in control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the likelihood of passing various legislation to address regulatory uncertainties in the virtual asset market has significantly increased."

韓國資本市場研究所的高級研究員 Kim Kab-lae 和 Hwang Sei-woon 在最近的報告中強調，「隨著共和黨現在控制參議院和眾議院，通過各種立法的可能性為解決虛擬資產市場的監管不確定性顯著增加。

Global investment bank Bernstein has predicted that Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000 in 2025, driven by growing institutional and government demand. Standard Chartered expressed similar optimism.

全球投資銀行 Bernstein 預測，在機構和政府需求不斷增長的推動下，比特幣到 2025 年可能會達到 20 萬美元。渣打銀行也表達了類似的樂觀態度。

"The shift from regulatory uncertainty to a clear legal framework would likely encourage institutional adoption and further integrate digital assets into the traditional financial system," crypto market intelligence firm Messari also wrote in its recent report.

加密市場情報公司 Messari 在最近的報告中還寫道：“從監管不確定性到明確的法律框架的轉變可能會鼓勵機構採用並進一步將數位資產整合到傳統金融體系中。”

However, much still remains to be proven. Some caution that many of the anticipated policy benefits may already be priced in, urging investors to maintain a more conservative outlook.

然而，還有很多事情有待證明。有些人警告說，許多預期的政策好處可能已經被定價，敦促投資者保持更保守的前景。

As expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts diminished, Bitcoin, being a risky asset, fell below $90,000 on Jan. 14 — its lowest level in two months.

隨著聯準會降息預期減弱，比特幣作為一種風險資產，在 1 月 14 日跌破 9 萬美元，創兩個月來最低。

"We anticipate that Bitcoin will experience a period of consolidation until mid-March or early May, as financial markets, including Bitcoin, process the Fed's hawkish stance on inflation," said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. "Furthermore, this period of consolidation is being exacerbated by selling pressure from older Bitcoin wallets, which are taking profits at current levels."

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 表示：“我們預計，隨著包括比特幣在內的金融市場接受聯準會對通膨的強硬立場，比特幣將經歷一段整合期，直到 3 月中旬或 5 月初。” “此外，舊的比特幣錢包的拋售壓力正在加劇這一整合時期，這些錢包正在以目前的水平獲利了結。”

Internal disagreements over crypto's institutionalization could also pose risks. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed opposition to supporting the incoming administration's strategic Bitcoin holdings, briefly pushing Bitcoin's price below the $100,000 mark.

關於加密貨幣制度化的內部分歧也可能帶來風險。去年 12 月，聯準會主席鮑威爾表示反對支持即將上任的政府戰略性持有比特幣，一度將比特幣價格推低至 10 萬美元大關。

Nor can we overlook the unpredictable nature of Trump's leadership style. Some believe there is a chance that he could reverse his pro-crypto stance to prioritize the U.S. dollar hegemony, a move aligned with national interest.

我們也不能忽視川普領導風格的不可預測性。有些人認為，他有可能扭轉支持加密貨幣的立場，優先考慮美元霸權，此舉符合國家利益。

"A shift toward a hostile stance on crypto could occur if an economic crisis undermines the dollar’s position, particularly if capital flows into crypto or if the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) financial system gains significant traction," Messari noted. "The risk of a reversal in sentiment toward crypto is not zero."

Messari 表示：「如果經濟危機損害了美元的地位，特別是如果資本流入加密貨幣，或者金磚國家（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非）的金融體系獲得巨大牽引力，那麼對加密貨幣的敵對立場可能會發生轉變。 “加密貨幣情緒逆轉的風險並非為零。”

But why is the U.S. taking such bold actions in the first place?

但美國為什麼要採取如此大膽的行動呢？

Kim and Hwang noted that "maintaining a leading position in the digital asset market could be a crucial factor in sustaining America’s global influence in the future."

Kim 和 Hwang 指出，“保持在數位資產市場的領先地位可能是維持美國未來全球影響力的關鍵因素。”

If the Trump administration eventually resolves the regulatory uncertainties and fosters policies to encourage innovation, it could lead to a concentration of related industries and capital in the U.S., ultimately positioning the country as a global standard-setter for crypto regulations.

如果川普政府最終解決監管不確定性並制定鼓勵創新的政策，可能會導致相關產業和資本向美國集中，最終使該國成為加密貨幣監管的全球標準制定者。

Such a shift would have significant global ripple effects. Market watchers caution that Korea must closely monitor its legislative outcomes.

這種轉變將產生重大的全球連鎖反應。市場觀察家警告說，韓國必須密切關注其立法結果。

"While it is true that there are significant differences in perception of digital assets in Korea, it is essential to consider that failing to prepare for the potential growth of the digital asset market poses an even greater risk," Kim and Hwang added.

Kim 和 Hwang 補充道：“雖然韓國對數位資產的看法確實存在顯著差異，但必須考慮到，未能為數位資產市場的潛在成長做好準備會帶來更大的風險。”