比特幣什麼時候可以突破100萬美元？傑夫·帕克有答案

根據 Park 的最新預測，比特幣的價格有可能在 2025 年達到 100 萬美元，但可能性只有 10% 左右。

According to Bitwise Asset Management’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeff Park, Bitcoin could hit $1 million in 2025, but only if the U.S. government establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve. He assigns a 10% probability to this scenario.

Bitwise 資產管理公司 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 表示，比特幣價格可能在 2025 年達到 100 萬美元，但前提是美國政府建立比特幣戰略儲備。他為這種情況分配了 10% 的機率。

Fresh Analysis: Breaking Down Bitcoin’s Path to Hitting $1 Million in 2025

最新分析：打破比特幣 2025 年突破 100 萬美元之路

In his latest analysis, Park examines the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $1 million milestone within the next presidential term. His assessment hinges on the establishment of a U.S. federal Bitcoin reserve, a concept that has gained traction in recent months.

在他的最新分析中，帕克研究了比特幣在下一屆總統任期內達到令人垂涎的 100 萬美元里程碑的可能性。他的評估取決於美國聯邦比特幣儲備的建立，這一概念近幾個月來備受關注。

“The idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (1B BTC over 5 years) happening in 2025 is less than a 10% chance event,” Park noted in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 26, 2024. “That’s the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.”

Park 於 2024 年 12 月 26 日在 X（前 Twitter）上發文指出：「2025 年建立聯邦比特幣戰略儲備（5 年 1B 比特幣）的想法是小於 10% 的機率事件。」根據數學計算，當這種情況發生時，比特幣將在2025 年達到1 毫米以上。

In a separate post on X, he demonstrates his analysis of the probability for this scenario to materialize.

在 X 的另一篇文章中，他展示了他對這種情況發生的可能性的分析。

Here is a simple illustration of how probability math works–Bottom right looks most probable to me, ie. 2.5% chance.

這是機率數學如何工作的簡單說明 - 右下角對我來說看起來最有可能，即。 2.5% 的機會。

pic.twitter.com/KCsqHGnFMu

After a banner year in 2023, which saw Bitcoin rally over 1,400% to set a new all-time high above $108,000, cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn in 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency began the year trading around $120,000 and has since lost over 20% of its value.

2023 年是標誌性的一年，比特幣上漲了1,400% 以上，創下了108,000 美元以上的歷史新高，但加密貨幣市場在2024 年經歷了低迷。 ，此後已經下跌了20% 以上。

However, relative to its historical performance and compared to other asset classes, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience. On Friday, December 27, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $96,252 on Binance, with the price continuing to move within the same November-December consolidation range.

然而，相對於其歷史表現以及與其他資產類別相比，比特幣表現出了顯著的彈性。 2024 年 12 月 27 日星期五，比特幣在幣安上的交易價格為 96,252 美元，價格繼續在 11 月至 12 月的盤整區間內波動。

In my analysis, Bitcoin is currently benefiting from a compelling support zone defined by:

根據我的分析，比特幣目前受益於一個引人注目的支援區域，該支援區域由以下定義：

We also can't overlook the proximity to the psychological level of $90,000, which provides additional support for the current zone. When traders return from their Christmas and New Year's break, cryptocurrency markets should see renewed volatility, and in my opinion, we're likely to see a bounce from the current, clearly established support level.

我們也不能忽視接近 90,000 美元的心理水平，這為當前區域提供了額外的支撐。當交易者從聖誕節和新年假期回來時，加密貨幣市場應該會出現新的波動，在我看來，我們可能會看到從當前明確建立的支撐位反彈。

What is the current target? First, the psychological $100,000 mark and the current ATH above $108,000.

目前的目標是什麼？首先，100,000 美元的心理關口和當前 ATH 高於 108,000 美元。

As covered by Finbold, several institutions have provided their own 2025 Bitcoin price predictions, with varying degrees of optimism. Bitwise’s baseline scenario suggests Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, while Standard Chartered aligns with a similar projection. VanEck, on the other hand, predicts a peak of $180,000.

根據 Finbold 報導，多家機構提供了自己對 2025 年比特幣價格的預測，並給出了不同程度的樂觀程度。 Bitwise 的基準情境表​​明，到 2025 年底，比特幣可能達到 20 萬美元，而渣打銀行也有類似的預測。另一方面，VanEck 預測高峰將達到 18 萬美元。

“Following this first peak, we anticipate a 30% retracement in BTC, with altcoins facing sharper declines of up to 60% as the market consolidates during the summer,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel forecasted. “However, a recovery is likely in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and reclaiming previous all-time highs by the end of the year.”

VanEck 的 Matthew Sigel 預測：“在第一個高峰之後，我們預計 BTC 將出現 30% 的回撤，而隨著夏季市場的整合，山寨幣將面臨高達 60% 的大幅跌幅。” “然而，秋季可能會出現復甦，主要代幣將重新獲得動力，並在年底前恢復之前的歷史高點。”

The cryptocurrency market has already seen substantial institutional interest, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting over $36 billion in inflows. This trend is expected to continue, potentially supporting price appreciation even without government intervention.

加密貨幣市場已經引起了機構的極大興趣，現貨比特幣 ETF 吸引了超過 360 億美元的資金流入。預計這一趨勢將持續下去，即使沒有政府乾預，也可能支持價格上漲。