比特幣減半對價格的影響減弱，分析師意見不一

CryptoQuant 分析師報告稱，2024 年比特幣減半對 BTC 價格的影響正在減弱，這歸因於市場動態的變化。他們注意到長期和大規模投資者的需求激增，鯨魚推動了價格上漲。儘管如此，分析師仍對減半的潛在影響持樂觀態度，理由是減半事件與價格飆升之間的歷史相關性。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact on Prices Diminishes, Analysts Remain Divided

比特幣減半對價格的影響減弱，分析師仍有分歧

The impending Bitcoin halving event in April has drawn significant attention within the cryptocurrency community. However, recent analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that its influence on BTC prices may be waning.

四月份即將到來的比特幣減半事件引起了加密貨幣社群的高度關注。然而，CryptoQuant 最近的分析表明，其對 BTC 價格的影響可能正在減弱。

Fading Halving Effect

衰退減半效應

In a recent report, CryptoQuant contends that the Bitcoin halving event, which marks a 50% reduction in block rewards for miners, is no longer the primary driver of BTC price surges. The firm attributes this to a shift in market dynamics.

CryptoQuant 在最近的報告中認為，比特幣減半（標誌著礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%）不再是 BTC 價格飆升的主要驅動力。該公司將此歸因於市場動態的轉變。

Long-Term Holder Influence

長期持有者影響力

According to CryptoQuant, long-term and large-scale Bitcoin holders, known as whales, have emerged as the dominant force behind BTC's price trajectory. The Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Julio Monero, highlighted that permanent holders' demand for Bitcoin has surpassed issuance for the first time in history.

據 CryptoQuant 稱，長期、大規模的比特幣持有者（被稱為「鯨魚」）已成為比特幣價格軌跡背後的主導力量。 CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Monero 強調，永久持有者對比特幣的需求歷史上首次超過了發行量。

CryptoQuant's report further reveals an 11% month-over-month surge in large-scale Bitcoin investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. This elevated demand stands in contrast to BTC's supply dynamics and is expected to continue growing post-halving.

CryptoQuant 的報告進一步顯示，持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的大型比特幣投資者較上季激增 11%。這種需求的增加與比特幣的供應動態形成鮮明對比，預計減半後將持續成長。

Supply-Demand Dynamics

供需動態

CryptoQuant's analysis underscores the shift in supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin. Long-term holders are accumulating more tokens than new entrants, with crypto permanent holders reportedly adding 200,000 BTC to their portfolios monthly, while long-term holders amass seven times that amount.

CryptoQuant 的分析強調了比特幣供需動態的轉變。長期持有者比新進業者累積了更多的代幣，據報道，加密貨幣永久持有者每月向其投資組合添加200,000 BTC，而長期持有者累積的代幣數量是該數量的七倍。

"We argue that the effect of the halving has been diminishing, as the new issuance of Bitcoin gets smaller relative to the amount of Bitcoin selling from long-term holders," CryptoQuant states.

CryptoQuant 表示：“我們認為，減半的影響一直在減弱，因為新發行的比特幣相對於長期持有者出售的比特幣數量越來越小。”

Analyst Optimism Despite Fading Effect

儘管效應減弱，分析師仍持樂觀態度

Despite CryptoQuant's analysis, many analysts remain optimistic about the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price. Joe Consorti, a crypto analyst, predicts a rise in BTC's price to $100,000 following the event.

儘管 CryptoQuant 進行了分析，但許多分析師仍然對減半對比特幣價格的潛在影響感到樂觀。加密貨幣分析師 Joe Consorti 預測事件發生後 BTC 的價格將上漲至 10 萬美元。

Historical trends also suggest a correlation between the Bitcoin halving and subsequent price surges. As a result, many investors anticipate a similar positive outlook for BTC this year.

歷史趨勢也表明，比特幣減半與隨後的價格飆升之間存在相關性。因此，許多投資者預計今年比特幣也會出現類似的正面前景。

Surge in Open Interest

未平倉合約激增

Further supporting the bullish sentiment, the open interest in Bitcoin has recently reached all-time highs above $18 billion. This surge indicates that traders and investors remain confident in Bitcoin's future value, viewing price dips as buying opportunities in anticipation of a potential rally.

比特幣的未平倉部位最近達到了超過 180 億美元的歷史新高，這進一步支撐了看漲情緒。這種飆升表明交易者和投資者對比特幣的未來價值仍然充滿信心，將價格下跌視為預期潛在反彈的買入機會。

Conclusion

結論

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches, the narrative around its impact on prices has evolved. While some analysts believe its influence has diminished due to shifting market dynamics and the dominance of long-term holders, others maintain optimism based on historical trends and heightened investor interest. The outcome of the halving will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Bitcoin in the months and years to come.

隨著比特幣減半事件的臨近，有關其對價格影響的敘述也發生了變化。儘管一些分析師認為，由於市場動態的變化和長期持有者的主導地位，其影響力已經減弱，但其他分析師則基於歷史趨勢和投資者興趣的增加而保持樂觀。減半的結果無疑將塑造比特幣未來幾個月和幾年的軌跡。