比特幣減半即將到來：預定事件將影響市場

比特幣將經歷“減半”，這是一個預先確定的事件，將給予礦工驗證區塊鏈交易的獎勵減少 50%。這種減半大約每四年發生一次，旨在減緩新比特幣進入市場的供應，這可能會影響其價格。 2020 年 5 月的上一次減半見證了比特幣價值的飆升，專家預計在即將到來的減半事件後也會出現類似的趨勢。然而，有些人認為，由於加密貨幣最近的反彈，減半的影響可能很小。

Bitcoin Halving: A Pre-programmed Event with Potential Market Impact

比特幣減半：具有潛在市場影響的預先編程事件

Within the next two days, Bitcoin is poised to undergo a pivotal event known as a "halving," a pre-determined occurrence that may significantly influence the production and market dynamics of the world's most prominent cryptocurrency.

在接下來的兩天內，比特幣將經歷一個被稱為「減半」的關鍵事件，這是一個預先確定的事件，可能會嚴重影響世界上最著名的加密貨幣的生產和市場動態。

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

了解比特幣減半

A halving occurs approximately every four years and was meticulously designed by Bitcoin's enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Its purpose is to effectively reduce by half the reward that miners receive for successfully verifying and adding new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain. Currently, miners are compensated with 6.25 bitcoins for their efforts, equivalent to approximately $402,000 based on the current market price.

減半大約每四年發生一次，是由比特幣神秘的創造者中本聰精心設計的。其目的是有效地將礦工因成功驗證並向比特幣區塊鏈添加新區塊而獲得的獎勵減少一半。目前，礦工的努力獲得了 6.25 比特幣的補償，根據當前市場價格，相當於約 402,000 美元。

Following the halving, miners will receive a reduced reward of 3,125 bitcoins for the same task. This reduction in miner compensation is anticipated to diminish the rate at which new bitcoins enter the market, subsequently restricting the supply of the cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto's protocol limits the total number of bitcoins that can ever exist to 21 million. Over 19.5 million bitcoins have already been mined, leaving less than 1.5 million yet to be created.

減半後，完成相同任務的礦工將獲得 3,125 個比特幣的減少獎勵。礦工報酬的減少預計會降低新比特幣進入市場的速度，從而限制加密貨幣的供應。中本聰的協議將比特幣的總數量限制為 2,100 萬個。超過 1,950 萬枚比特幣已被開採，尚待創造的比特幣不到 150 萬枚。

Historical Halving Events

歷史減半事件

The most recent bitcoin halving transpired in May 2020, when the price of Bitcoin hovered around $8,602. By May 2021, Bitcoin's value had surged almost sevenfold to nearly $57,000.

最近一次比特幣減半發生在 2020 年 5 月，當時比特幣的價格徘徊在 8,602 美元左右。到 2021 年 5 月，比特幣的價值已飆升近七倍，達到近 57,000 美元。

Upcoming Halving

即將到來的減半

The next halving is scheduled to occur sometime on Friday or Saturday of this week. This event is determined by the addition of approximately 210,000 'blocks' to the blockchain during the mining process.

下一次減半預計發生在本週五或週六的某個時間。該事件是由在挖礦過程中向區塊鏈添加約 210,000 個「區塊」決定的。

Potential Price Impact

潛在的價格影響

Opinions vary among experts regarding the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price. Some believe it will have a negligible effect, reasoning that the cryptocurrency has already experienced a significant rally this year.

對於減半對比特幣價格的影響，專家意見不一。有些人認為其影響可以忽略不計，因為加密貨幣今年已經經歷了大幅上漲。

"Investors, traders, and speculators priced in the halving months ago," stated Nigel Green, CEO of financial services firm deVere Group. "As a result, a significant portion of the positive economic impact was experienced earlier, pushing prices to new record highs last month."

However, others maintain that Bitcoin could encounter a setback, particularly in the long term. Ryan Rasmussen, senior crypto research analyst at Bitwise, asserts that growing demand from newly introduced ETFs, coupled with the supply shock caused by the halving, could further drive up Bitcoin's price.

然而，其他人認為比特幣可能會遇到挫折，特別是從長遠來看。 Bitwise 高級加密貨幣研究分析師 Ryan Rasmussen 斷言，新推出的 ETF 需求不斷增長，加上減半造成的供應衝擊，可能會進一步推高比特幣的價格。

"We expect the price of Bitcoin to perform strongly over the next twelve months," he predicted. Rasmussen has observed some forecasted profits as high as $400,000, but a more "consensus estimate" places the range between $100,000-$175,000.

「我們預計比特幣的價格在未來十二個月內將表現強勁，」他預測。 Rasmussen 觀察到一些預測利潤高達 400,000 美元，但更「一致的估計」將範圍在 100,000 美元至 175,000 美元之間。

Impact on Bitcoin Miners

對比特幣礦工的影響

Experts anticipate that the halving will exert pressure on miners to enhance their energy efficiency or secure additional capital. A recent research report by Bitwise revealed that total miner revenue declined a month after each of the three previous halvings. However, those figures rebounded significantly after a full year, driven by price increases and the expansion of operations by larger miners.

專家預計，減半將對礦商施加壓力，要求其提高能源效率或獲得額外資本。 Bitwise 最近的一份研究報告顯示，前三次減半後的一個月，礦工總收入均有所下降。然而，在價格上漲和大型礦商業務擴張的推動下，這些數字在全年後大幅反彈。

Time will reveal the fate of mining companies in the aftermath of this imminent halving. Nonetheless, Rasmussen expresses confidence that major players will continue to innovate and utilize technological advancements to improve operational efficiency.

時間將揭示礦業公司在即將到來的減半之後的命運。儘管如此，拉斯穆森表示相信主要參與者將繼續創新並利用技術進步來提高營運效率。