比特幣減半後一年：一個週期與其他任何人不同

這個比特幣週期的展現與以前的周期明顯不同，這表明市場對減半事件的反應可能發生了變化。

Bitcoin (BTC) is now one year past its most recent halving, and this cycle is shaping up to be unlike any before it.

比特幣（BTC）現在已經過去了一年，而這個週期正與之前的任何一個不同。

Unlike previous cycles where explosive rallies followed the halving, BTC has seen a far more muted gain, up just 31%, compared to 436% over the same timeframe in the last cycle.

與以前的爆炸性集會之後的周期不同，BTC的收益率高得多，僅為31％，而在上一個週期中相同的時間範圍則為436％。

At the same time, long-term holder metrics like the MVRV ratio are signaling a sharp decline in unrealized profits, pointing to a maturing market with compressing upside. Together, these shifts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new era, defined less by parabolic peaks and more by gradual, institution-driven growth.

同時，像MVRV比率這樣的長期持有人指標表明，未實現的利潤急劇下降，指出了一個成熟的市場，並帶有壓縮上漲空間。這些轉變共同表明，比特幣可能正在進入一個新時代，而拋物線峰的定義較少，而逐漸以機構為導向的增長來定義。

A Year After the Bitcoin Halving: A Cycle Unlike Any Other

比特幣減半後一年：一個週期與其他任何人不同

This Bitcoin cycle is unfolding noticeably differently than previous ones, signaling a potential shift in how the market responds to halving events.

這個比特幣週期的展現與以前的周期明顯不同，這表明市場對減半事件的反應可能發生了變化。

In earlier cycles—most notably from 2012 to 2016 and again from 2016 to 2020—Bitcoin tended to rally aggressively around this stage. The post-halving period was often marked by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, largely fueled by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

在較早的周期中，尤其是從2012年到2016年，從2016年到2020年，Bitcoin傾向於在此階段積極地集會。備受期間的時期通常以強勁的向上勢頭和拋物線價格行動為特徵，在很大程度上以零售熱情和投機性需求推動。

However, the current cycle has taken a different route. Instead of the price surge beginning after the halving, it began earlier, in October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.

但是，當前週期採取了不同的路線。它不是在減半之後開始的價格上漲，而是從2024年10月和12月開始的，隨後在2025年1月進行合併，並於2月下旬進行了更正。

This front-loaded behavior diverges sharply from historical patterns where halvings typically acted as the catalyst for major rallies.

這種前載的行為與歷史模式急劇不同，在歷史模式下，中度通常是主要集會的催化劑。

Several factors are contributing to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset—it’s increasingly seen as a maturing financial instrument. The growing involvement of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the market, has led to a more measured and complex response.

有幾個因素導致了這一轉變。比特幣不再僅僅是零售驅動的投機資產，它越來越被視為一種成熟的金融工具。機構投資者的參與日益加劇，再加上宏觀經濟壓力和市場的結構變化，導致了更加衡量和復雜的反應。

Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening strength of each successive cycle. The explosive gains of the early years have become harder to replicate as Bitcoin’s market cap has grown. For instance, in the 2020–2024 cycle, Bitcoin had climbed 436% one year after the halving.

這種演變的另一個明顯跡像是每個連續週期的強度降低。隨著比特幣的市值不斷增長，早期的爆炸性收益變得越來越難復制。例如，在2020-2024週期中，比特幣在減半後一年攀升了436％。

In contrast, this cycle has seen a much more modest 31% increase over the same timeframe.

相比之下，這個週期比同一時間表增加了31％。

This shift could mean Bitcoin is entering a new chapter. One with less wild volatility and more steady, long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driver. Other forces are taking over—rates, liquidity, and institutional money.

這種轉變可能意味著比特幣正在進入新的章節。一個野生動盪較小，長期增長較小。減半可能不再是主要驅動程序。其他部隊正在接管利率，流動性和機構資金。

The game is changing. And so is the way Bitcoin moves.

遊戲正在改變。比特幣移動的方式也是如此。

Nonetheless, it’s important to note that previous cycles also featured periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy reset before the next move higher.

儘管如此，重要的是要注意，以前的周期在恢復上升趨勢之前還具有鞏固和校正的時期。儘管此階段可能會感到越來越慢或更令人興奮，但在下一步更高之前，它仍然可以代表健康的重置。

That said, the possibility remains that this cycle will continue to diverge from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic blow-off top, the outcome may be a more prolonged and structurally supported uptrend—less driven by hype, more by fundamentals.

也就是說，這個週期將繼續與歷史模式不同。該結果不是戲劇性的吹風頂部，而是更延長且結構上支持的上升趨勢 - 不受炒作的驅動，而不是基本面。

What Long-Term Holder MVRV Reveals About Bitcoin’s Maturing Market

長期持有人MVRV揭示了比特幣的成熟市場

The Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio has always been a solid measure of unrealized profits. It shows how much long-term investors are sitting on before they start selling. But over time, this number is falling.

長期持有人（LTH）MVRV比率一直是未實現的利潤的堅實衡量。它顯示了在開始銷售之前坐著多少長期投資者。但是隨著時間的流逝，這個數字正在下降。

In the 2016–2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8. That signaled massive paper profits and a clear top forming. By the 2016–2020 cycle, the peak dropped sharply to 12.2. This happened even as Bitcoin price hit fresh all-time highs.

在2016 - 2020年的周期中，LTH MVRV以35.8達到峰值。這表明了大量紙張利潤和清晰的頂部形成。到2016 - 2020年周期，峰值急劇下降至12.2。即使比特幣價格達到新鮮的高潮，這也是如此。

In the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV so far is just 4.35. That’s a massive drop. It shows long-term holders aren’t seeing the same kind of gains. The trend is clear: each cycle delivers smaller multiples.

在當前週期中，到目前為止，最高的LTH MVRV僅為4.35。那是一個大量的下降。它表明長期持有人沒有看到相同的收益。趨勢很明顯：每個週期都會提供較小的倍數。

Bitcoin’s explosive upside is compressing. The market is maturing.

比特幣的爆炸性上升空間正在壓縮。市場正在成熟。

Now, in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV reading so far has been 4.35. This stark drop suggests long-term holders are experiencing much lower multiples on their holdings compared to previous cycles, even with substantial price appreciation. The pattern points to one conclusion: Bitcoin’s upside is compressing.

現在，在當前週期中，到目前為止，最高的LTH MVRV讀數為4.35。這種鮮明的下降表明，與以前的周期相比，長期持有人的持有量也要低得多，即使價格很大。模式指出了一個結論：比特幣的上升空間正在壓縮。

This isn’t just a fluke. As the market matures, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The days of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate—but potentially more stable—growth.

這不僅僅是flu蟲。隨著市場的成熟，爆炸性的收益自然很難獲得。極端，循環驅動的利潤倍數的日子可能正在逐漸消失，取而代之的是更溫和的（但可能更穩定）的成長。

A growing market cap means it takes exponentially more capital to move the price significantly.

不斷增長的市值意味著要大幅提高價格需要大量資本。

Still, it’s not definitive proof that this cycle has already topped out. Previous cycles often included extended periods of sideways movement or modest pullbacks before new

儘管如此，這個週期已經達到了最佳狀態並不是明確的證據。以前的周期通常包括橫向運動的長時間或新的回調