比特幣和黃金的差異隨著BTC的流星崛起在最近的回調之前

從2022年11月到2024年11月，黃金和比特幣的相關性相關，黃金佔67％，而波動性的比特幣越來越多，將近400％。

After moving in a relatively tight correlation for November 2022 to November 2024, gold and bitcoin prices diverged sharply this year, a trend that may continue in the coming months.

在2022年11月至2024年11月的相對緊密相關之後，今年的黃金和比特幣價格急劇差異，這種趨勢可能在未來幾個月內持續下去。

Top traders at CME Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CME) discussed the factors that could influence the next move in the two assets.

CME Group，Inc。 （NASDAQ：CME）的頂級交易者討論了可能影響這兩個資產下一步行動的因素。

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Trades Below $70,000 As Fed Minutes Hint At More Rate Hikes

另請閱讀：今天的比特幣價格：BTC以低於$ 70,000的價格交易，提示提示更多的回報

Gold vs Bitcoin: What's Happening?

黃金與比特幣：發生了什麼事？

From November 2022 to November 2024, gold gained 67%, while the more volatile bitcoin surged nearly 400%. Analysts widely believed that the two assets would continue to move in tandem, given their shared status as hedges against weak global currency policies. However, this relationship began to fray in 2025.

從2022年11月到2024年11月，黃金上漲了67％，而波動性的比特幣飆升了近400％。分析師廣泛認為，鑑於它們作為針對薄弱的全球貨幣政策的樹籬的共同地位，這兩個資產將繼續同時發展。但是，這種關係在2025年開始陷入困境。

As of late March, gold has risen 16%, while bitcoin has fallen by more than 6%.

截至3月下旬，黃金上漲了16％，而比特幣下降了6％以上。

Bitcoin's Rise And Recent Pullback

比特幣的崛起和最近的回調

Bitcoin's meteoric rise over the past three years can be attributed to several factors, including growing institutional adoption. Major participants such as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), VanEck and Fidelity have increased their exposure to the cryptocurrency market, while countries like El Salvador have embraced bitcoin as a key financial tool.

在過去三年中，比特幣的迅速崛起可以歸因於幾個因素，包括日益增長的機構採用。貝萊德（NYSE：BLK），Vaneck和Fidelity等主要參與者增加了他們對加密貨幣市場的接觸，而El Salvador等國家則將比特幣作為關鍵的財務工具。

The U.S. government has also unveiled preliminary plans for a strategic crypto reserve, further solidifying bitcoin's position. Additionally, the introduction of new financial instruments, such as CME Group's Bitcoin Friday futures, which offer contracts as small as 1/50th of a coin, has made it easier for retail investors to participate in the crypto market.

美國政府還發布了戰略加密保護區的初步計劃，進一步鞏固了比特幣的立場。此外，引入新金融工具（例如CME Group的比特幣週五期貨）提供的合同佔硬幣的1/50，這使零售投資者更容易參加加密貨幣市場。

These developments have not only driven up demand but also enhanced bitcoin's durability through broader institutional entrenchment.

這些事態發展不僅促使需求提高了需求，而且通過更廣泛的機構鞏固措施提高了比特幣的耐用性。

However, bitcoin has pulled back sharply in recent months, which can be attributed to two primary factors.

但是，最近幾個月，比特幣急劇退縮，這可以歸因於兩個主要因素。

Firstly, much of the positive news that fueled bitcoin's rise had already been priced in by the time it reached its peak of $109,000 in mid-January. The adage "buy the rumor, sell the fact" often holds true in financial markets, where speculators buy into an asset ahead of anticipated news and then sell once the news is confirmed.

首先，到1月中旬達到高峰109,000美元之時，助長比特幣的上升的許多積極消息已經被定價。格言“購買謠言，出售事實”通常在金融市場中成立，在金融市場上，投機者在預期的新聞之前就投入了資產，然後在確認新聞後出售。

This can lead to a simultaneous rush to liquidate long positions, driving the asset's price in the opposite direction.

這可能會導致同時急於清算長位置，從而使資產的價格朝相反的方向推動。

Secondly, bitcoin retains a strong correlation with the Nasdaq, a relationship that remains confounding to many traders but easily explained by others. Many institutional trading desks often group volatile assets like the Nasdaq and bitcoin into the same portfolio, assuming a Nasdaq traders' expertise in handling volatility equips them to manage bitcoin's price swings.

其次，比特幣保留了與納斯達克的密切相關性，這種關係仍然與許多交易者感到困惑，但很容易被他人解釋。許多機構交易台通常會將納斯達克和比特幣（例如比特幣）組合到同一投資組合中，假設納斯達克交易者在處理波動性方面的專業知識使他們能夠管理比特幣的價格波動。

Consequently, a sharp decline in the Nasdaq often triggers sales of bitcoin to cover margin requirements.

因此，納斯達克的急劇下降通常會觸發比特幣的銷售，以滿足利潤的要求。

Also Read: Is Bitcoin Bottom In Yet? Key Levels To Watch This Week

另請閱讀：比特幣底部是嗎？本週要觀看的關鍵水平

Gold's Resurgence

黃金的複興

The recent strength in gold can be attributed to a combination of economic uncertainty, rising inflation expectations and a shift in central bank policies.

最近黃金的力量可以歸因於經濟不確定性，通貨膨脹預期的上升和中央銀行政策的轉變。

Economic uncertainty has traditionally pushed investors toward gold as a safe haven, a trend that has clearly gained traction. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's potential shift toward easing monetary policy, rather than tightening, has further bolstered gold's appeal.

傳統上，經濟不確定性使投資者成為避風港，這種趨勢顯然受到了關注。此外，美聯儲向輕鬆貨幣政策而不是收緊的潛在轉變，進一步加強了黃金的吸引力。

However, a key driver of gold's recent performance is the unprecedented rate at which global central banks, particularly those in China, India and Russia, have been stockpiling the metal. According to the World Gold Council, these central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 metric tons of gold annually over the past three years.

但是，黃金最近表現的主要驅動力是前所未有的速度，在該速度上，全球中央銀行，尤其是中國，印度和俄羅斯的中央銀行一直在儲存金屬。根據世界黃金委員會的數據，這些中央銀行在過去三年中每年購買超過1,000噸的黃金。

This accumulation reflects a strategic move away from holding reserves solely in U.S. dollars - a response to actions taken following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which froze dollar-denominated assets and excluded Russia from the SWIFT payment network. This shift may have accelerated in recent months due to perceived adversarial U.S. trade and tariff policies, prompting key trading partners to diversify their reserve instruments.

這種積累反映了僅以美元的持有儲量的戰略轉變，這是對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭採取的行動的回應，俄羅斯凍結了以美元為基礎的資產，並將俄羅斯排除在迅速支付網絡之外。由於認為對抗性的美國貿易和關稅政策，近幾個月來，這種轉變可能已經加速了，促使主要的貿易夥伴多樣化其後備工具。

While the change is modest, it is significant: the share of dollar reserves among global central banks has dropped from over 60% in 2022 to 57% today.

儘管變化是適度的，但這很重要：全球央行中股票的份額已從2022年的60％下降到了今天的57％。

Moreover, gold's strength may be partly a result of bitcoin's weakness. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, estimated at around $2.8 trillion, has pulled money away from the more traditional dollar hedge of gold. It would stand to reason that if bitcoin was in a period of weakness, perhaps investors seeking safety and stability might turn to gold, which has a history spanning thousands of years as a reliable store of value.

此外，黃金的實力可能部分是比特幣弱點的結果。加密貨幣的總市值估計約為2.8萬億美元，已將資金從更傳統的黃金對沖中撤出。可以說，如果比特幣處於弱點時期，尋求安全和穩定的投資者可能會變成黃金，這是一千年的歷史，作為可靠的價值存儲。

The Maturation Of Bitcoin

比特幣的成熟

One aspect that cannot be overlooked is the historical context of the two assets. Gold has been a store of value since ancient Egypt in 4000 B.C., while Bitcoin's history dates back only to 2011.

不能忽視的一個方面是兩個資產的歷史背景。自從公元前4000年的古埃及以來，黃金一直是價值的存儲，而比特幣的歷史可以追溯到2011年。

Many argue that Bitcoin still has

許多人認為比特幣仍然