比特幣期貨：擁抱波動的雙面刃

比特幣期貨市場最近經歷了波動性激增，未平倉合約達到 360 億美元的歷史新高。儘管推出了現貨ETF，但市場波動性仍增至80%，超過了標準普爾500指數和石油期貨等傳統波動性資產。高期貨持倉量通常與波動性增加有關，一些分析師將近期的波動歸因於過度槓桿或操縱。然而，月度合約的溢價分析表明，槓桿需求主要集中在買方，表明看漲情緒。相反，下跌趨勢的持續可能會引發強制平倉，加劇價格下跌。

Bitcoin Futures Market: A Double-Edged Sword in the Quest for Volatility

比特幣期貨市場：尋求波動性的雙面刃

Bitcoin (BTC) investors, perpetually captivated by the allure of price volatility, often find their euphoria tempered by the subsequent sharp corrections that accompany price rallies. These abrupt reversals trigger forced liquidations in futures contracts, exacerbating the downward price movement.

比特幣（BTC）投資者永遠被價格波動的誘惑所吸引，他們常常發現，隨著價格上漲，隨後的大幅調整會削弱他們的興奮感。這些突然的逆轉引發了期貨合約的強制平倉，加劇了價格的下行勢。

Futures contracts play a pivotal role in the Bitcoin market, enabling traders to employ leverage, amplifying their potential profits but also their risks. As the futures market flourishes, its influence on Bitcoin's price becomes increasingly pronounced.

期貨合約在比特幣市場中發揮關鍵作用，使交易者能夠利用槓桿，放大他們的潛在利潤，同時也放大他們的風險。隨著期貨市場的蓬勃發展，其對比特幣價格的影響越來越明顯。

Open Interest Reaches Record Heights

持倉量創歷史新高

The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures surged to an unprecedented $36 billion on March 21, a significant leap from the $30 billion recorded just two weeks prior. Notably, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market leader, secured an open interest of $11.9 billion, surpassing the combined inflows of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since their inception.

3 月 21 日，比特幣期貨的未平倉合約總額飆升至前所未有的 360 億美元，較兩週前記錄的 300 億美元大幅躍升。值得注意的是，市場領導者芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的未平倉合約達到 119 億美元，超過了美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）自成立以來的流入總和。

Volatility Spikes Despite ETF Launch

儘管 ETF 推出，波動性仍在飆升

Despite the much-anticipated launch of spot ETFs in the U.S., some analysts envisioned a dampening effect on volatility, given the substantial daily trading volume of these instruments, averaging over $3 billion. However, recent data presents a contrasting picture, revealing a surge in Bitcoin's volatility over the past four weeks.

儘管現貨 ETF 在美國的推出備受期待，但考慮到這些工具的每日交易量龐大（平均超過 30 億美元），一些分析師預計波動性將會受到抑制。然而，最近的數據卻呈現出截然不同的景象，顯示過去四週比特幣的波動性激增。

Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has soared above 80%, its highest level in more than 15 months. This stark contrast is evident when compared to the S&P 500 index volatility, currently at 13%, and WTI oil futures volatility, standing at 23%. Even stocks traditionally considered volatile in the traditional market, such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Unity Software (U), exhibit volatilities of 72% and 59%, respectively.

比特幣的 30 天波動率飆升至 80% 以上，為 15 個多月以來的最高水準。與目前 13% 的標準普爾 500 指數波動率和 23% 的 WTI 石油期貨波動率相比，這種鮮明對比非常明顯。即使是傳統市場上傳統上被認為波動較大的股票，例如 Nvidia (NVDA) 和 Unity Software (U)，也分別表現出 72% 和 59% 的波動率。

Forced Liquidations Drive Downward Pressure

強制平倉帶來下行壓力

The inherent volatility of Bitcoin is exemplified by the 10% correction on March 19, driving the price to a low of $60,795, followed by a swift 12% recovery on March 20. This abrupt price swing triggered $375 million in forced liquidations of BTC futures contracts over two days. While such fluctuations may not directly impact long-term holders, they undeniably shape the trajectory of bull runs and, more importantly, the broader market's perception of Bitcoin's risk profile.

比特幣固有的波動性體現在3 月19 日的10% 回調，將價格推至60,795 美元的低點，隨後在3 月20 日迅速回升12%。這種突然的價格波動引發了3.75 億美元的BTC 期貨合約強制平倉。兩天多了。雖然這種波動可能不會直接影響長期持有者，但它們無可否認地影響了牛市的軌跡，更重要的是，影響了更廣泛的市場對比特幣風險狀況的看法。

The Perils of Leverage

槓桿的危險

The Bitcoin futures market, like any derivatives instrument, is a double-edged sword: it facilitates both bullish and bearish bets with leverage. While entities aggressively shorting BTC futures may appear to exert downward pressure on the spot Bitcoin price, the contracts must eventually be settled, either through buying back the contract or forced liquidation.

與任何衍生工具一樣，比特幣期貨市場是一把雙面刃：它透過槓桿促進看漲和看跌押注。雖然積極做空 BTC 期貨的實體可能會對現貨比特幣價格施加下行壓力，但合約最終必須透過回購合約或強制清算來結算。

Consequently, if Bitcoin's price is suppressed by investors employing leveraged shorts, one can anticipate an eventual reversal of this movement, leading to short-term buying pressure. This explains, in part, the correlation between elevated futures open interest and increased volatility.

因此，如果比特幣的價格受到投資者利用槓桿空頭的壓制，人們可以預期這一走勢最終會逆轉，從而導致短期買盤壓力。這在一定程度上解釋了期貨未平倉合約增加與波動性增加之間的相關性。

Allegations of Manipulation

操縱指控

Some analysts attribute the heightened volatility to excessive leverage, while others simply label it as "manipulation." For instance, Amit Kukreja, user amitX on Twitter, alleges that market makers have been pursuing leveraged longs and shorts. He claims that stocks directly related to the sector, such as the miner CleanSpark (CLSK), gained 7% on the day Bitcoin's price crashed to $68,000. While speculations can be made, it is impossible to ascertain the motivations behind each market participant.

一些分析師將波動性加劇歸因於槓桿過高，而另一些分析師則簡單地將其稱為「操縱」。例如，Twitter 上的 amitX 用戶 Amit Kukreja 聲稱做市商一直在追求槓桿多頭和空頭。他聲稱，與該行業直接相關的股票，例如礦商 CleanSpark (CLSK)，在比特幣價格暴跌至 68,000 美元當天上漲了 7%。雖然可以進行猜測，但不可能確定每個市場參與者背後的動機。

Evaluating Futures Premium

評估期貨溢價

To gauge whether Bitcoin futures contracts have been used to exert negative pressure on BTC's price, one should scrutinize the premium of monthly contracts. These contracts are preferred by professional traders due to the absence of a funding rate. To compensate for the extended settlement period, sellers typically demand a 5% to 10% premium relative to spot markets.

要判斷比特幣期貨合約是否被用來對比特幣價格施加負面壓力，應該仔細審查月度合約的溢價。由於沒有資金費率，這些合約受到專業交易者的青睞。為了彌補結算期延長的影響，賣方通常要求相對於現貨市場有 5% 至 10% 的溢價。

The BTC futures premium has remained above 16% for the past three weeks, a characteristic of bullish markets. Notably, the indicator has not significantly declined even after Bitcoin's price fell by 17.6% between March 14 and 20.

過去三週，BTC 期貨溢價一直保持在 16% 以上，這是牛市的特徵。值得注意的是，即使比特幣價格在 3 月 14 日至 20 日期間下跌 17.6%，該指標也沒有顯著下降。

This suggests that the demand for leverage on Bitcoin's futures is predominantly concentrated on the buy side. Conversely, if the Bitcoin price continues to downtrend, those leveraged buyers might face forced liquidation, leading to drastic consequences given the $36 billion open interest.

這顯示比特幣期貨的槓桿需求主要集中在買方。相反，如果比特幣價格繼續下跌，這些槓桿買家可能會面臨強制清算，鑑於 360 億美元的未平倉合約，將導致嚴重後果。

Disclaimer

免責聲明

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading involve risk, and readers should conduct their own thorough research before making any decisions.

本文不構成投資建議或推薦。所有投資和交易都涉及風險，讀者在做出任何決定之前應進行徹底的研究。