比特幣減半後激增，Coinbase 對市場現實發出警告

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Post-Halving Surge?

比特幣是否準備好迎接減半後的飆升？

All eyes are on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in mid-April 2024, an event that will halve the rewards miners receive for validating transactions. Historically, these halvings have been seen as potential catalysts for price appreciation.

所有的目光都集中在 2024 年 4 月中旬即將到來的比特幣減半上，這一事件將使礦工驗證交易獲得的獎勵減半。從歷史上看，減半被視為價格上漲的潛在催化劑。

Coinbase's Cautious Outlook

Coinbase 的謹慎前景

While Coinbase acknowledges the potential for the halving to positively impact Bitcoin's performance, it also notes the limited historical evidence supporting this correlation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is subject to external factors beyond crypto-specific events like halvings.

雖然 Coinbase 承認減半可能對比特幣的表現產生正面影響，但它也指出支持這種相關性的歷史證據有限。此外，比特幣的價格也受到除減半等特定加密事件之外的外部因素的影響。

Macroeconomic Headwinds

宏觀經濟逆風

Coinbase highlights several macroeconomic factors that could significantly influence Bitcoin prices. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and reduction in quantitative tightening could provide support. However, the handbook also raises concerns about potential selling pressure from miners and companies emerging from bankruptcy.

Coinbase 強調了幾個可能顯著影響比特幣價格的宏觀經濟因素。聯準會降息和減少量化緊縮的預期可能會提供支撐。然而，該手冊也引發了人們對礦商和剛破產的公司潛在拋售壓力的擔憂。

On-Chain Analytics: A Familiar Pattern

鏈上分析：熟悉的模式

Coinbase's analysis of on-chain data suggests that the current market cycle resembles the period from 2018 to 2022, during which Bitcoin experienced a significant rally. Notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has remained relatively stable, indicating a decreased likelihood of sell-offs.

Coinbase 對鏈上數據的分析表明，當前的市場週期類似於 2018 年至 2022 年期間，比特幣在此期間經歷了大幅上漲。值得注意的是，長期投資者持有的比特幣供應量保持相對穩定，顯示拋售的可能性下降。

Long-Term Holders: A Restraining Force

長期持有者：一種限制力量

Assuming other factors remain constant, Coinbase believes that long-term holders are less likely to sell their Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving. This suggests that the market strength typically associated with halvings may be tempered by the reluctance of these investors to cash in.

假設其他因素不變，Coinbase 認為長期持有者不太可能因預期減半而出售比特幣。這表明，通常與減半相關的市場強勢可能會因這些投資者不願兌現而受到削弱。

Conclusion: A Cautious Optimism

結論：謹慎樂觀

While the upcoming halving presents a potential opportunity for Bitcoin's price to rise, Coinbase advises investors to exercise caution. The limited historical evidence, external macroeconomic factors, and potential selling pressure from miners and bankrupt companies warrant a measured approach. Nonetheless, the on-chain data and the potential for long-term holders to act as a stabilizing force provide some reason for optimism.

雖然即將到來的減半為比特幣價格帶來了潛在的上漲機會，但 Coinbase 建議投資者謹慎行事。有限的歷史證據、外部宏觀經濟因素以及來自礦商和破產公司的潛在拋售壓力需要謹慎的態度。儘管如此，鏈上數據和長期持有者作為穩定力量的潛力提供了一些樂觀的理由。