比特幣的長期盤整：歷史趨勢暗示突破時機和牛市高峰預測

過去 1.5 個月，比特幣 (BTC) 重新累積在 59,000 美元至 70,000 美元之間。根據歷史減半事件，這種整合通常持續 150 天左右，可能會延長至 210 天，以完全重置當前的週期加速。如果當前週期遵循這種模式，2024 年 11 月可能會出現突破。

Bitcoin's Prolonged Re-Accumulation: Historical Patterns Hint at Breakout Timing and Projected Bull Market Peak

比特幣的長期重新累積：歷史模式暗示突破時機和預計的牛市峰值

Bitcoin (BTC), the undisputed heavyweight of the cryptocurrency realm, has been circling within a constricted $59,000 to $70,000 range for the past month and a half. This protracted consolidation has fueled speculation regarding its duration and its implications for Bitcoin's future trajectory. Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has delved into historical trends and data to shed light on these burning questions, providing valuable insights into the potential timing of a breakout and the anticipated peak of the current bull market.

比特幣（BTC）是加密貨幣領域無可爭議的重量級貨幣，在過去的一個半月裡，其價格一直在 59,000 美元至 70,000 美元的狹窄區間內徘徊。這種曠日持久的整合引發了人們對其持​​續時間及其對比特幣未來軌跡影響的猜測。著名的加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 深入研究了歷史趨勢和數據，以闡明這些緊迫的問題，為突破的潛在時機和當前牛市的預期高峰提供了寶貴的見解。

Re-Accumulation Phase: A Crucible for Consolidation

再積累階段：鞏固的熔爐

Bitcoin's current price action is best understood within the context of its recent Halving event. Occurring every four years, the Halving is a pivotal event that reduces the block reward for Bitcoin miners, effectively halving the issuance rate and counteracting any inflationary pressures. Historically, this event has triggered a subsequent re-accumulation range for Bitcoin, a period of consolidation typically lasting around 150 days before the cryptocurrency embarks on a parabolic uptrend.

比特幣當前的價格走勢最好在最近的減半事件的背景下理解。每四年發生一次的減半是一個關鍵事件，它減少了比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵，有效地將發行率減半並抵消了任何通膨壓力。從歷史上看，這一事件引發了比特幣隨後的重新累積區間，在加密貨幣開始拋物線上升趨勢之前，這段鞏固期通常持續約 150 天。

Historical Patterns Inform Duration Expectations

歷史模式告知持續時間預期

Based on this historical pattern, Rekt Capital suggests that a breakout from the current re-accumulation range could materialize in September 2024, assuming Bitcoin continues to consolidate for the next 150 days. However, the analyst recognizes that Bitcoin's recent performance has introduced a degree of acceleration into its cycle, with the cryptocurrency reaching a new all-time high of $73,700 in mid-March. This acceleration has reduced the consolidation period from 260 days to approximately 210 days.

根據這個歷史模式，Rekt Capital 表示，假設比特幣在未來 150 天內繼續盤整，目前重新累積區間的突破可能會在 2024 年 9 月實現。然而，分析師承認，比特幣最近的表現在一定程度上加速了其週期，該加密貨幣在 3 月中旬達到了 73,700 美元的歷史新高。這項加速將整合期從 260 天縮短至約 210 天。

Resetting the Halving Cycle: A Path to Resynchronization

重置減半週期：重新同步之路

To fully resynchronize with its historical Halving cycles and reset the current acceleration to 0, Bitcoin would ideally need to consolidate for at least 210 days, according to Rekt Capital. This extended consolidation period would bring the rate of acceleration to 0 days and potentially push the breakout to November 2024.

Rekt Capital 表示，為了與歷史減半週期完全重新同步並將當前加速度重設為 0，比特幣理想情況下需要至少整合 210 天。這一延長的盤整期將使加速率達到 0 天，並有可能將突破推至 2024 年 11 月。

Replicating Historical Consolidation for a Full Reset

複製歷史合併以實現完全重置

Furthermore, to achieve a 200+ day post-Halving consolidation and fully resynchronize with historical Halving cycles, Bitcoin would need to replicate its mid-2023 re-accumulation range, which lasted an impressive 224 days before a new uptrend emerged.

此外，為了實現減半後200 多天的盤整並與歷史減半週期完全重新同步，比特幣需要複製其2023 年中期的重新積累區間，該區間在新的上升趨勢出現之前持續了令人印象深刻的224 天。

Duration Dictates Acceleration and Peak Potential

持續時間決定加速度和峰值潛力

In summary, the duration of the current re-accumulation range will significantly influence the remaining acceleration in this cycle and ultimately determine Bitcoin's peak in its current bull market.

綜上所述，目前重新吸籌區間的持續時間將顯著影響本輪週期的剩餘加速，並最終決定比特幣當前牛市的見頂。

Current Market Conditions: Sideways Consolidation with Support and Resistance Levels

目前市場狀況：具有支撐位和阻力位的橫向盤整

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading sideways above the $60,000 mark, with minimal fluctuations compared to recent price movements. The cryptocurrency has encountered resistance at the $66,000 level, hindering its ability to consolidate above this threshold. Conversely, the $63,400 level may serve as a support base for the cryptocurrency in the event of heightened downward volatility over the weekend.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣在 60,000 美元大關上方橫盤交易，與近期價格走勢相比波動很小。該加密貨幣在 66,000 美元水平遇到阻力，阻礙了其在該閾值之上整合的能力。相反，如果週末下行波動加劇，63,400 美元的水平可能會成為加密貨幣的支撐基礎。

Disclaimer:

免責聲明：

This article is provided solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries inherent risks, and readers are strongly advised to conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

本文僅供教育目的，不應被視為財務建議。投資加密貨幣具有固有的風險，強烈建議讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底的研究並諮詢金融專業人士。