Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices End Q1 of 2025 in the Red

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices are set to close the first quarter of 2025 in the red, as market sentiment soured due to macroeconomic uncertainty and visible resistance from whales at key price levels.

As Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal noted, a “vertical swing up” before the quarter’s end on March 31st was highly improbable.

“As I mentioned previously, the chances of a vertical swing up in the crypto market by the end of Q1 are slim to none. I’d say it’s nearly impossible,” Hundal said in a recent X post.

Indeed, there was no unexpected surge, let alone a spark.

The crypto market will also be flying a little blind until mid-April, when more clarity is expected on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on risk appetite.

According to the latest data from CoinGlass, Ethereum is down 37.98% so far in Q1, 2025, trading at $1,852.25 at press time.

This marks its worst Q1 performance since 2018, when ETH fell 46.61%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is in the red by 6.49% over the quarter, its weakest Q1 since the 10.83% drop in 2020.

Whales Short Bitcoin At $88K As Resistance Builds

According to crypto analytics platform Alphractal, whales have been shorting Bitcoin (BTC) near $88,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $83,129.15, up 0.13%.

The firm reported a “sharp reversal” in its Whale Position Sentiment metric, which tracks large $1 million+ trades across multiple exchanges, typically foreshadowing a price decrease.

“Whales have closed their long positions and the trend is quickly shifting to bear territory as we approach the final days of Q1, 밝혔다.

This behavior usually precedes a price drop, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, who shared the observation in a recent X post.

CryptoQuant also noted that 8 out of 10 on-chain metrics are currently flashing bearish for Bitcoin.

The apex cryptocurrency needs to close above $90,000 to maintain bullish momentum.

“If the price fails to break above the $90,000 level and instead continues to move within the $84,000 to $85,000 zone, we might see a different scenario unfold,” said Crazzyblockk, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

Falling below this range could prompt selling, especially from those who bought around $83,000, further impacting the market.

ETH/BTC Ratio Hits 2020 Levels As Ether Lags

The ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.022, its lowest since May 2020, according to TradingView data.

This reflects a weakening relative strength for Ether against Bitcoin, despite ETH historically outperforming BTC in the first quarter.

CoinGlass data shows that Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% Q1 return since 2017. On the other hand, Bitcoin has returned 51.62% in Q1 on average since 2013. However, these trends broke this year due to unexpected macro pressures.

Earlier optimism that followed Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000 after Trump’s November 2024 election win and a potential price target of $150,000 by the end of 2024 evaporated by early February.

This shift occurred as new tariffs and interest rate concerns hit risk sentiment, leading to a return to fear in the market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently showing fear at 24 as of April 1st.

The prospect of more macroeconomic clarity by mid-April is expected to bring about a turning point in the market trends.

Despite the near-term weakness, some economists are still projecting new highs later in 2025.

For instance, Timothy Peterson, economist at Cane Island, said in a recent interview with Real Vision that Bitcoin has a 75% chance of reaching new all-time highs in the next nine months.

Peterson, a well-known BTC bull, also claimed that there’s a 50% chance the flagship cryptocurrency gains 50% or more in the short term.

His model relies on Bitcoin’s 10-year seasonal performance, which shows April and October average monthly gains of 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively.

Moreover, crypto influencer Colin Talks Crypto expects Bitcoin’s “next major blast-off” around April