比特幣ETF，削減費用和流入：完美的風暴？

分析潛在的FED降低率的影響，並將流入增加成比特幣ETF。這是新的加密公牛運行的食譜嗎？

Bitcoin ETFs, Rate Cut, and Inflows: A Perfect Storm?

比特幣ETF，削減費用和流入：完美的風暴？

Bitcoin's been making headlines lately, and for good reason. With Bitcoin ETFs raking in serious cash, whispers of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and increasing inflows, things are getting interesting. Are we on the cusp of another major crypto surge? Let's dive in.

比特幣最近一直在成為頭條新聞，這是有充分理由的。隨著比特幣ETF的重大現金，降低美聯儲的竊竊私語以及增加流入，事情變得越來越有趣。我們是否在另一個主要的加密速度激增的風口浪尖？讓我們潛水。

Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Show Me The Money

比特幣ETF流入：告訴我錢

Recently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge, attracting over a billion dollars in net inflows in a single week! Specifically, on September 10th, Bitcoin ETFs saw $757 million in inflows, their strongest day since July. Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT are leading the charge. That's a lot of moolah flowing into Bitcoin, suggesting strong institutional interest.

最近，美國現場比特幣ETF經歷了激增，一周內吸引了超過十億美元的淨流入！具體來說，在9月10日，比特幣ETF的流入量為7.57億美元，這是自7月以來最強勁的一天。 Fidelity的FBTC和BlackRock的IBIT正在領導。這是很多穆拉（Moolah）流向比特幣，這表明機構興趣很大。

To put things into perspective, a $757 million net inflow translates to roughly 6,640 BTC. Post-halving, the daily issuance is about 450 BTC. This means inflows are absorbing a significant chunk of new Bitcoin supply.

為了透視事物，一筆7.57億美元的淨流入轉化為大約6,640 BTC。晚期後，每日發行約為450 BTC。這意味著流入吸收了大量新的比特幣供應。

The Fed Factor: Will a Rate Cut Ignite the Market?

美聯儲因素：降低稅率會點燃市場嗎？

The big question mark looming is the Federal Reserve's next move. A potential rate cut could be the catalyst for even more significant inflows. As one analyst put it, a Fed rate cut could spark Bitcoin’s next breakout. Markets are already anticipating a 25 basis point cut, and if that happens, expect some fireworks.

最大的問號迫在眉睫是美聯儲的下一步行動。潛在的降低可能是更重要的流入的催化劑。正如一位分析師所說，美聯儲降低率可能會引發比特幣的下一個突破。市場已經預計將有25個基點削減，如果發生這種情況，預計會有一些煙火。

Why? Lower real yields reduce the attractiveness of holding cash, making assets like Bitcoin more appealing. It’s the same dynamic that boosted gold ETFs in recent months. If the Fed cuts rates, the macro environment could further support Bitcoin's ETF era.

為什麼？較低的實際收益率降低了持有現金的吸引力，從而使比特幣這樣的資產更具吸引力。近幾個月來增強了黃金ETF的動力。如果美聯儲降低費率，那麼宏觀環境可以進一步支持比特幣的ETF時代。

Supply and Demand: A Balancing Act

供求：平衡行為

The supply side of the equation is pretty straightforward post-halving. Mined issuance is capped, thanks to the 3.125 BTC block subsidy. This puts a ceiling on organic supply when ETF demand surges. The halving block at height 840,000 on April 20, 2024, is a verifiable on-chain reference for the subsidy change. Frictions inside ETF plumbing have also eased.

等式的供應側非常簡單。得益於3.125 BTC Block補貼，開采的發行被封頂。當ETF需求激增時，這會使有機供應上限。 2024年4月20日，高度為840,000的減半塊是補貼更改的鏈上參考。 ETF管道內的摩擦也緩解了。

What this all means is that if the Fed cuts rates and ETF inflows stay strong (think $500 million to $1 billion daily), the primary market could absorb 10 to 20 days of issuance each day. That could tighten available float unless exchange balances get replenished.

這一切都意味著，如果美聯儲降低利率和ETF流入保持強勁（認為每天5億至10億美元），則主要市場每天可以吸收10至20天的發行。除非補充交換餘額，否則可能會收緊可用的浮點。

A Word of Caution

謹慎

Of course, nothing is guaranteed. If the Fed holds steady and real yields remain firm, flows could cool off. In that scenario, miner and trader supply might meet demand without major disruptions.

當然，沒有任何保證。如果美聯儲保持穩定並且真實的收益率保持穩定，那麼流可以冷卻。在這種情況下，礦工和交易者的供應可能會在沒有重大干擾的情況下滿足需求。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最終想法：搭扣！

The convergence of Bitcoin ETF inflows and the potential for a Fed rate cut is creating a fascinating landscape. One day, U.S. spot ETF flow matched nearly two weeks of the new Bitcoin. Whether that becomes the norm or remains an outlier depends on what happens on September 17th. Either way, keep your eyes peeled – it's going to be an interesting ride!

比特幣ETF流入的收斂性和削減美食率的潛力正在產生引人入勝的景觀。有一天，美國的ETF流量與新比特幣的近兩個星期相匹配。這是常態還是保持異常，取決於9月17日發生的事情。無論哪種方式，請保持眼睛剝落 - 這將是一個有趣的旅程！