比特幣在2025年的$ 500,000：有遠見的方程式

比特幣的歷史以大膽的預測為標誌，但是亞當回來的歷史是生態系統中的關鍵人物，它以其技術精度的混合而脫穎而出

The history of bitcoin is marked by bold predictions, but that of Adam Back, a key figure in the ecosystem, stands out for its mix of technical precision and historical mystery. As the creator of HashCash, mentioned in Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper, predicts a bitcoin worth 1 million dollars by 2025, one question remains: is this a cold analysis or a cryptographic legacy speaking through him?

比特幣的歷史以大膽的預測為標誌，但是生態系統中的一個關鍵人物亞當回來的歷史是因為它的技術精確度和歷史之謎而脫穎而出。正如薩什卡什（Satoshi Nakamoto）的白皮書中提到的哈什卡什（Hashcash）的創建者預測到2025年的比特幣價值100萬美元，還有一個問題：這是一個冷分析還是通過他講的密碼遺產？

Bitcoin at $500,000 in 2025: the equation of a visionary

比特幣在2025年的$ 500,000：有遠見的方程式

Adam Back does not just predict. He deciphers. During a recent Milk Road podcast, the CEO of Blockstream set a minimum threshold: $500,000 per bitcoin this year, before a rise to a million. For him, even at $100,000, bitcoin remains “undervalued.” This reasoning is anchored in the history of halving cycles but nuanced by a surprising observation: post-halving gains decrease in percentage.

亞當回頭不僅預測。他破譯了。在最近的Milk Road播客中，Blockstream的首席執行官設定了最低門檻：今年每比特幣500,000美元，然後上升到一百萬。對他來說，即使是100,000美元，比特幣仍然“被低估”。這種推理奠定了減半週期的歷史，但由於令人驚訝的觀察而細微：備忘後的增長降低了百分比。

The 2020 pandemic and the Fed’s expansionary monetary policies have, according to Back, distorted the game. Massive dollar printing created a temporary inflow towards risky assets, masking bitcoin’s true potential.

據Back稱，2020年大流行和美聯儲的擴張貨幣政策使比賽扭曲了。大量的美元打印為風險資產造成了暫時的流入，掩蓋了比特幣的真正潛力。

Today, with monetary tightening and growing institutional adoption, the next cycle could combine increased scarcity (halving in April 2024) and structural demand.

如今，隨著貨幣收緊和製度採用的增長，下一個週期可能會結合稀缺性的增加（2024年4月減半）和結構性需求。

But Back goes further. He talks about a market mechanism often ignored: each cycle reduces the available liquidity. Long-term holders lock their bitcoins, while new entrants — states, companies — compete for increasingly rare units. The result? Exponential upward volatility.

但是回去走得更遠。他談到了一種經常忽略的市場機制：每個週期都會降低可用的流動性。長期持有人鎖定了比特幣，而新進入者（州，公司）則爭奪日益稀有的單位。結果？指數向上波動。

Adam Back vs Satoshi Nakamoto: the ghost in the machine

Adam Back vs Satoshi Nakamoto：機器中的幽靈

If Back’s prediction fascinates, his link to Satoshi Nakamoto is equally intriguing. Asked yet again about his possible identity, the British cryptographer laughs: “I am not Satoshi.”

如果Back的預測令人著迷，他與Nakamoto Satoshi的聯繫同樣有趣。這位英國密碼師再次問他可能的身份時，笑著說：“我不是Satoshi。”

Yet, coincidences persist. In August 2008, Back received a mysterious email containing a draft of the Bitcoin whitepaper. Satoshi cited his invention, HashCash, as inspiration for the proof-of-work mechanism.

然而，巧合持續存在。 2008年8月，Back收到了一封神秘的電子郵件，其中包含比特幣白皮書草稿。 Satoshi列舉了他的發明，Hashcash，是工作證明機制的靈感。

Back insists: their exchange was brief, without collaboration. Satoshi would have finalized the code before writing the whitepaper, thus reversing the usual process. A subtle revelation: the creator of Bitcoin first tested the robustness of his protocol, like an architect checking foundations before unveiling plans.

返回堅持：他們的交流是短暫的，沒有合作。 Satoshi在撰寫白皮書之前將最終確定代碼，從而扭轉通常的過程。一個微妙的啟示：比特幣的創建者首先測試了他的協議的魯棒性，就像建築師在揭幕計劃之前檢查基礎一樣。

This anecdote sheds light on a modern paradox. The quest to identify Satoshi disturbs Back, who sees it as a distraction. “Bitcoin works because its creator disappeared”, he emphasizes. Anonymity is not an accident but an essential feature. Without a central figure to attack or idolize, the network remains decentralized — and thus resilient.

這個軼事揭示了現代悖論。識別Satoshi挫敗的追求，他們認為這是分心的。他強調說：“比特幣之所以起作用，是因為其創造者消失了。”匿名不是偶然的，而是一個基本功能。如果沒有攻擊或偶像崇拜的中心數字，網絡仍保持分散，從而有彈性。

Adam Back’s prediction is not just a number. It fits into a story shaped by algorithmic scarcity, past monetary wanderings, and a powerful cryptographic legacy. While the million-dollar milestone may seem like fantasy, let us recall a fundamental truth: in a world where trust in central banks is eroding, Bitcoin stands as the antidote — including against a devalued dollar.

亞當·巴克（Adam Back）的預測不僅僅是一個數字。它適合一個由算法稀缺，過去的貨幣流浪和強大的加密遺產所塑造的故事。儘管百萬美元的里程碑似乎是幻想，但讓我們回想起一個基本的事實：在一個對中央銀行的信任正在侵蝕的世界中，比特幣作為解毒劑，包括違反貶值的美元。

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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

自2017年以來，Evariste著迷於比特幣，不斷研究該主題。儘管他最初的興趣是交易，但他現在積極尋求了解以加密貨幣為中心的所有進步。作為一名編輯，他努力始終如一地提供反映整個行業狀態的高質量工作。