分析師警告稱，比特幣即將下行

著名波蘭投機客 Rafał Zaorski 預測，由於最近減半事件的心理影響，比特幣價格即將下跌。 Zaorski 認為，市場對減半後價格成長的預期將被打破，導致類似於 Terra/Luna 崩盤的潛在市場調整。他鼓勵交易者考慮做空比特幣，並警告當前的興奮和高流動性可能是短暫的。

Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Decline, Analyst Warns

分析師警告比特幣價格面臨潛在下跌

Renowned Polish speculator Rafał Zaorski has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community with his prediction of an imminent downturn in Bitcoin's price. Zaorski asserts that the market has become complacent in the wake of the recent halving event, and that a correction is now likely.

著名波蘭投機者 Rafał Zaorski 預測比特幣價格即將下跌，在加密貨幣界引起了軒然大波。扎奧爾斯基斷言，在最近的減半事件發生後，市場已經變得自滿，現在可能會出現調整。

Halving Paradigm Broken

減半範式被打破

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant price increases following each halving event, in which the block reward for miners is reduced by half. This has led to a prevailing market belief that halving inevitably leads to growth. However, Zaorski contends that this paradigm is now broken.

從歷史上看，每次減半事件後，比特幣的價格都會大幅上漲，礦工的區塊獎勵也會減少一半。這導致市場普遍認為減半必然帶來成長。然而，札奧爾斯基認為，這種範式現在已經被打破。

"It's time to break the created and well-established paradigm of halving in BTC," Zaorski declared on Twitter. "The market has become accustomed to halving leading to growth, but this time, it may not be the case."

扎奧爾斯基在推特上宣稱：“是時候打破比特幣減半這一既定且行之有效的範式了。” “市場已經習慣了減半帶來成長，但這一次，情況可能並非如此。”

Reasons for Decline

拒絕的原因

Zaorski identifies several factors that could contribute to a decline in Bitcoin's price. Firstly, the market has failed to react to the halving event with a substantial surge in demand. Secondly, Zaorski draws parallels to the Terra/Luna collapse, suggesting that a similar sentiment of euphoria and overconfidence has taken hold in the Bitcoin market.

扎奧爾斯基指出了可能導致比特幣價格下跌的幾個因素。首先，市場未能對減半事件做出反應，需求大幅激增。其次，扎奧爾斯基將 Terra/Luna 的崩潰進行了類比，表明類似的欣快和過度自信的情緒已經在比特幣市場中佔據了主導地位。

Additionally, Zaorski points to the emergence of Spot ETFs in the US and Hong Kong as potential liquidity sinks that could further drain the market.

此外，扎奧爾斯基指出，美國和香港現貨 ETF 的出現可能會導致潛在的流動性下降，從而進一步耗盡市場。

Expert Opinions Divide

專家意見分歧

Despite Zaorski's grim predictions, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. QCP Capital analysts believe that a significant price increase may still occur, but that it could take several weeks to materialize.

儘管扎奧爾斯基做出了嚴峻的預測，但一些分析師仍然對比特幣的長期前景感到樂觀。 QCP Capital 分析師認為，價格仍可能大幅上漲，但可能需要幾週時間才能實現。

"In previous years, the spot price increased exponentially 50-100 days after each of the three halvings," QCP Capital stated in a report. "If this pattern repeats this time, the bulls (...) will still have weeks to build a larger long position."

QCP Capital在一份報告中表示：“往年，現貨價格在三次減半後的每50-100天內呈指數級上漲。” 「如果這次重複這種模式，多頭（......）仍有幾週時間建立更大的多頭頭寸。”

Playing Against the Market

與市場對抗

Zaorski advises investors to capitalize on the potential decline by shorting Bitcoin. However, he acknowledges that playing against the market carries risks.

扎奧爾斯基建議投資者透過做空比特幣來利用潛在的下跌機會。然而，他承認與市場競爭存在風險。

"Playing against BTC declines today is – at least in my opinion – risky," Zaorski said. "The halving phenomenon has created a strong self-fulfilling prophecy that Bitcoin will increase after the event."

「至少在我看來，今天應對比特幣下跌是有風險的，」扎奧爾斯基說。 「減半現象創造了一個強烈的自我實現預言，即比特幣在事件發生後將會上漲。」

Conclusion

結論

The cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting the outcome of Zaorski's predictions. If Bitcoin's price indeed experiences a significant decline, it would mark a significant departure from the historical trend. However, if the market remains bullish, Zaorski's warning will serve as a cautionary tale against underestimating the potential volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

加密貨幣社群正在熱切等待扎奧爾斯基的預測結果。如果比特幣的價格確實出現大幅下跌，那將標誌著與歷史趨勢的重大背離。然而，如果市場仍然看漲，扎奧爾斯基的警告將成為一個警示，提醒人們不要低估加密貨幣市場的潛在波動性。