繼之前的樂觀情緒之後，比特幣最近的下跌引發了擔憂

自 3 月達到 73,000 美元以來，比特幣 (BTC) 的價值一直在下跌。儘管 BTC ETF 的批准和減半的預期引發了樂觀情緒，但這種加密貨幣仍面臨對其未來軌蹟的擔憂。資深分析師 Peter Brandt 表示，73,000 美元有 25% 的可能性代表本週期的峰值，可能導致價格跌至 30,000 美元左右。然而，布蘭特仍然看好長期前景，強調儘管當前存在波動，但比特幣仍有復甦的潛力。

Bitcoin's Downturn Raises Concerns Amidst Prior Optimism

比特幣的低迷在先前的樂觀情緒中引發了擔憂

Following a period of exhilaration and positive projections between October 2023 and April 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has descended into a realm of uncertainty, leaving investors apprehensive about its future trajectory.

在經歷了 2023 年 10 月至 2024 年 4 月期間的興奮和積極預測之後，比特幣 (BTC) 陷入了不確定性的境地，讓投資者對其未來的軌跡感到擔憂。

The anticipated mass institutional adoption sparked by the approval of nine spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January, a sentiment echoed by BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), and the halving event fueled forecasts of an imminent surge to $100,000 and $300,000 by year's end. However, the world's leading cryptocurrency has spent much of April in decline.

1 月份9 只現貨BTC 交易所交易基金(ETF) 獲得批准引發了預期的大規模機構採用，貝萊德(BlackRock) (NYSE: BLK) 也表達了同樣的情緒，而減半事件則推動了今年比特幣價格即將飆升至100,000 美元和300,000 美元的預測。然而，全球領先的加密貨幣在四月的大部分時間裡都在下跌。

After reaching a peak of $73,000 in March, BTC plummeted below $60,000 and briefly struggled to maintain its position above $57,000. While some experts anticipate a reversal and recovery in the first week of May, seasoned analysts speculate that the current cycle may have already reached its zenith.

在 3 月達到 73,000 美元的峰值後，BTC 暴跌至 60,000 美元以下，並一度難以維持在 57,000 美元以上的位置。雖然一些專家預計 5 月第一周會出現逆轉和復甦，但經驗豐富的分析師推測當前週期可能已經達到頂峰。

Reasons for the Downturn

經濟衰退的原因

On the final day of April, Peter Brandt, founder of Factor Trading and a seasoned chart analyst, asserted that there is a 25% probability that the recently recorded $73,000 represents the cycle's peak and that Bitcoin is likely to experience a steep decline to the mid-$30,000 range, levels last seen in 2021.

4 月的最後一天，Factor Trading 創始人、經驗豐富的圖表分析師 Peter Brandt 斷言，最近記錄的 73,000 美元有 25% 的可能性代表了周期的頂峰，比特幣可能會經歷急劇下跌至中期。美元範圍，上次出現水準是在2021 年。

Brandt's prediction is supported by the theory of 'exponential decay,' which posits that each Bitcoin cycle is approximately 20% smaller than its predecessor. Using this methodology, Brandt had previously forecasted that the current rally would culminate at $72,723.

Brandt 的預測得到了「指數衰減」理論的支持，該理論認為每個比特幣週期都比其前一個週期小約 20%。 Brandt 先前曾使用這種方法預測目前的反彈將達到 72,723 美元。

Despite this short-term bearish outlook, Brandt remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, acknowledging that the recent downturn does not diminish its underlying strength.

儘管短期前景看跌，布蘭特仍然對比特幣的長期前景持樂觀態度，並承認最近的低迷並沒有削弱其潛在實力。

Current Market Situation

目前的市場狀況

Whether Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle or if a more substantial rally lies ahead remains an unanswered question. However, it is evident that the cryptocurrency has faced challenges in recent times.

比特幣在這個週期中是否已經見頂，或者未來是否會出現更大幅度的反彈，仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。然而，很明顯，加密貨幣近年來面臨挑戰。

Although BTC has experienced a slight recovery of 0.52% in the last 24 hours of trading, elevating its current price to $59,915, it has undergone a significant decline of 10.17% over the past 30 days.

儘管BTC在過去24小時的交易中小幅回升0.52%，將當前價格提升至59,915美元，但在過去30天裡卻大幅下跌了10.17%。

Historical Perspective

歷史的角度

Despite the current downturn, it is crucial to note that it follows a period of substantial gains for Bitcoin in 2024. At the time of publication, BTC remains 34.43% in the green year-to-date (YTD), a testament to the cryptocurrency's resilience amidst market fluctuations.

儘管目前經濟低迷，但值得注意的是，比特幣在2024 年經歷了一段大幅上漲的時期。的市場波動中的韌性。