比特幣週期 2.0：Arthur Hayes 談全球流動性和市場分析

BitMEX 的 Arthur Hayes 宣布傳統的比特幣減半週期已經結束，並指出全球流動性和央行政策是新的驅動力。獲取內幕消息！

Bitcoin Cycle 2.0: Arthur Hayes on Global Liquidity and Market Analysis

比特幣週期 2.0：Arthur Hayes 談全球流動性和市場分析

Forget what you thought you knew about Bitcoin cycles. Arthur Hayes is here to shake things up. According to the BitMEX co-founder, the old four-year halving cycle is as dead as disco. The future? It's all about global liquidity, baby.

忘記你認為你對比特幣週期的了解。阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 來這裡是為了改變現狀。 BitMEX 聯合創始人表示，舊的四年減半週期已經像迪斯科舞廳一樣死氣沉沉。未來？寶貝，這一切都與全球流動性有關。

The Halving Hype is Over?

減半炒作結束了嗎？

For years, we've been told that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable pattern: post-halving rise, followed by a crash. Hayes says that's outdated. He argues that past bull runs weren’t driven by halvings at all. They were powered by the flow of global money. Bitcoin moved with the liquidity, not its own supply schedule. So, throw out your charts?

多年來，我們一直被告知比特幣的價格遵循可預測的模式：減半後上漲，隨後崩盤。海耶斯說這已經過時了。他認為，過去的牛市根本不是由減半驅動的。它們受到全球資金流動的推動。比特幣隨著流動性而不是其自己的供應計劃而變化。那麼，扔掉你的圖表嗎？

Money Printers Go Brrr: The Real Bitcoin Driver

印鈔機 Go Brrr：真正的比特幣驅動力

Hayes breaks down Bitcoin's history into distinct cycles, noting that every major rally began when money was cheap and plentiful, and every crash came when credit tightened. Think US and China. When they loosen the purse strings, Bitcoin parties. When they tighten, well, you know. Currently, the U.S. Treasury injected $2.5 trillion into markets, anticipated deregulation to boost bank lending, and the US Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts despite inflation above target. High odds of additional rate cuts later this year, as priced in by futures markets.

海耶斯將比特幣的歷史分解為不同的周期，並指出每次重大反彈都是在資金廉價且充足時開始的，而每次崩盤都是在信貸收緊時發生的。想想美國和中國。當他們放鬆錢包時，比特幣就會盛行。當它們收緊時，嗯，你知道。目前，美國財政部向市場注入了 2.5 萬億美元，預期放鬆管制以提振銀行貸款，儘管通脹高於目標，美聯儲仍恢復降息。正如期貨市場所反映的那樣，今年晚些時候進一步降息的可能性很高。

The Hayes Hypothesis: A New World Order

海耶斯假說：新的世界秩序

Hayes points out that the US and China are again turning to easy money. Trump wanted to "run the economy hot," pushing for lower interest rates, and Treasury policies have already added trillions in liquidity. China, fighting deflation, is preparing to ease credit conditions. Hayes believes Bitcoin will continue to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The old cycle depended on block rewards; the new one depends on central banks.

海耶斯指出，美國和中國再次轉向寬鬆貨幣。特朗普想要“讓經濟過熱”，推動降低利率，而財政部的政策已經增加了數万億美元的流動性。為了對抗通貨緊縮，中國正準備放鬆信貸條件。海耶斯相信，由於對這個極有可能的未來的預期，比特幣將繼續上漲。舊循環依賴於區塊獎勵；新的貨幣體系取決於央行。

Doubters Gonna Doubt, But...

懷疑者會懷疑，但是……

Of course, not everyone's buying what Hayes is selling. Some industry figures still see echoes of past cyclical patterns. Gemini’s Saad Ahmed recently stated that some form of market cycle is likely to persist. But Hayes is pretty convincing. The numbers don't lie. Still, even with Hayes’ analysis, some industry figures and data providers, such as Glassnode, maintain that Bitcoin’s price action still echoes past cyclical patterns.

當然，並不是每個人都購買海耶斯所銷售的產品。一些行業數據仍然看到了過去週期性模式的迴聲。 Gemini 的 Saad Ahmed 最近表示，某種形式的市場週期可能會持續下去。但海耶斯的說法相當有說服力。數字不會說謊。儘管如此，即使根據 Hayes 的分析，一些行業人士和數據提供商（例如 Glassnode）仍然堅持認為，比特幣的價格走勢仍然與過去的周期性模式相呼應。

What Does This Mean for Your Portfolio?

這對您的投資組合意味著什麼？

Well, that's the million-dollar question, isn't it? If Hayes is right, then keep a close eye on those global monetary policies. It means that future Bitcoin rallies will be driven by global liquidity and central bank policies, not block rewards. And cheap money from the US and China will continue to shape BTC’s next bull run.

嗯，這是一個價值百萬美元的問題，不是嗎？如果海耶斯是對的，那麼請密切關注這些全球貨幣政策。這意味著未來的比特幣上漲將由全球流動性和央行政策驅動，而不是區塊獎勵。來自美國和中國的廉價資金將繼續影響比特幣的下一次牛市。

Currently, $120,000 to $140,000 call options remain the most heavily concentrated contracts, with the $120,000 key level seeing the highest concentration of Bitcoin positions.

目前，120,000 美元至 140,000 美元的看漲期權仍然是最集中的合約，其中 120,000 美元的關鍵水平是比特幣頭寸最集中的位置。

Final Thoughts: Long Live the King (or Queen?)

最後的想法：國王（或王后？）萬歲

So, is the Bitcoin cycle dead? Maybe. Maybe not. But Arthur Hayes has certainly given us something to think about. One thing is for sure: the crypto world is never boring. Now, go forth and prosper (or at least don't lose all your sats)!

那麼，比特幣週期死了嗎？或許。也許不是。但阿瑟·海耶斯確實給了我們一些值得思考的東西。有一點是肯定的：加密世界永遠不會無聊。現在，繼續前進並繁榮（或者至少不要失去所有的衛星）！