比特幣難題：加密之王是否已經觸頂或飆升至新高度？

加密貨幣專家對於比特幣本週期的高峰有不同意見。資深交易員 Peter Brandt 表示，根據「指數衰減」趨勢，該股可能已達到 7.2 萬美元的峰值。然而，另一位專家認為，BTC 還有很長的路要走，預計在牛市結束前可能會達到 21 萬美元。

The Great Bitcoin Debate: Has the Digital Gold Peaked or Is There More Upside?

比特幣大辯論：數位黃金已經見頂還是還有更多上漲空間？

The global cryptocurrency community is currently embroiled in a heated debate regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading digital asset. As Bitcoin continues to shatter all-time highs, market analysts and experts are divided in their opinions on whether the flagship cryptocurrency has reached its peak for the current cycle or if it still has ample room to grow.

目前，全球加密貨幣社群正捲入全球領先數位資產比特幣（BTC）未來發展軌跡的激烈爭論。隨著比特幣繼續打破歷史高點，市場分析師和專家對於這種旗艦加密貨幣是否已達到當前週期的峰值或是否仍有足夠的成長空間存在分歧。

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, renowned for his uncanny ability to predict market movements, has recently expressed his belief that Bitcoin may have already topped out at around the $72,000 level. Brandt bases his analysis on the concept of "exponential decay," a historical trend he has observed in Bitcoin's bull market cycles. According to this theory, the peak price of each successive Bitcoin cycle is typically only about 20% of the previous cycle's peak gain. Brandt argues that this pattern has held true for the past three Bitcoin market cycles, and if it continues to hold, the current cycle's peak should be around $72,723. This figure is remarkably close to Bitcoin's recent all-time high of $73,737, which it reached in March of this year.

以其不可思議的市場走勢預測能力而聞名的資深交易員 Peter Brandt 最近表示，他相信比特幣可能已經在 72,000 美元左右見頂。布蘭特的分析是基於「指數衰減」的概念，這是他在比特幣牛市週期中觀察到的歷史趨勢。根據這個理論，每個連續的比特幣週期的峰值價格通常僅為前一個週期峰值收益的 20% 左右。 Brandt 認為，這種模式在過去三個比特幣市場週期中都是成立的，如果繼續保持下去，當前週期的峰值應該在 72,723 美元左右。這個數字非常接近比特幣今年 3 月創下的歷史新高 73,737 美元。

However, Brandt's exponential decay theory has been met with skepticism from other industry experts. Giovanni Santostasi, a former physics professor and cryptocurrency analyst, has proposed an alternative perspective using his own "Bitcoin Power Law" model. This model assumes that Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory follows a "power law" relationship with time, similar to the laws that govern physical phenomena. Santostasi argues that Brandt's exponential decay theory is based on insufficient data and that his own model predicts a much higher peak for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

然而，布蘭特的指數衰減理論遭到了其他行業專家的懷疑。前物理學教授兼加密貨幣分析師 Giovanni Santostasi 使用自己的「比特幣冪律」模型提出了另一種觀點。該模型假設比特幣的長期價格軌跡與時間遵循「冪律」關係，類似於支配物理現象的定律。桑托斯塔西認為，布蘭特的指數衰減理論是基於不充分的數據，他自己的模型預測比特幣在當前週期中會出現更高的峰值。

Santostasi's Bitcoin Power Law model forecasts that BTC will peak at around $210,000 in the fourth cycle, which is expected to end in December 2025. This would represent a significant increase from the current all-time high price. Santostasi also acknowledges that Bitcoin's price could experience corrections along the way, but he believes that the long-term trend remains bullish.

Santostasi 的比特幣冪律模型預測，BTC 在第四個週期中將達到 21 萬美元左右的峰值，預計將於 2025 年 12 月結束。桑托斯塔西也承認，比特幣的價格可能會經歷調整，但他認為長期趨勢仍然看漲。

The debate surrounding Bitcoin's price trajectory is likely to continue as the cryptocurrency market evolves. While there is no definitive answer, the contrasting perspectives of Brandt and Santostasi highlight the complexities of market analysis and the uncertainties that exist in the world of digital assets. As Bitcoin continues to make headlines and attract mainstream attention, investors and traders will need to carefully consider these different viewpoints and make their own informed decisions about the future prospects of the digital gold.

隨著加密貨幣市場的發展，圍繞比特幣價格軌蹟的爭論可能會持續下去。雖然沒有明確的答案，但布蘭特和桑托斯塔西的截然不同的觀點凸顯了市場分析的複雜性以及數位資產世界中存在的不確定性。隨著比特幣繼續成為頭條新聞並吸引主流關注，投資者和交易者將需要仔細考慮這些不同的觀點，並對數位黃金的未來前景做出明智的決定。