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最近對長期比特幣 (LTH) 持有者的分析表明,目前的牛市可能已完成約 40%。 LTH 持有代幣超過六個月,通常會在牛市期間分配其持有的代幣,而最近 LTH 供應量的下降與這一歷史模式相符。分析表明,在此類拋售期間,LTH 供應通常會下降 14% 左右,這表明當前週期可能已接近中點。
Bitcoin Bull Run Poised for Further Surge, Long-Term Holders Hint
長期持有者暗示,比特幣牛市預計將進一步飆升
A meticulous analysis of long-term Bitcoin holders' (LTHs) behavior suggests that the current bull run has traversed approximately 40% of its anticipated trajectory, portending substantial potential for further appreciation.
對長期比特幣持有者 (LTH) 行為的細緻分析表明,當前的牛市已經穿越了其預期軌蹟的約 40%,預示著進一步升值的巨大潛力。
Long-Term Holders: Stalwart Guardians of Bitcoin
長期持有者:比特幣的堅定守護者
LTHs, defined as investors who have held their Bitcoin for more than six months, are renowned for their steadfastness, rarely parting with their prized digital assets irrespective of market fluctuations. However, their sales, when they do occur, bear immense significance.
LTH 被定義為持有比特幣超過六個月的投資者,他們以堅定而聞名,無論市場波動如何,都很少放棄寶貴的數位資產。然而,當它們真正發生時,它們的銷售具有巨大的意義。
Historically, LTHs have initiated distributions during bull runs, coinciding with the breaching of Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH). Having accumulated substantial profits over extended holding periods, they capitalize on the heightened demand during bull rallies, selling their coins at advantageous prices.
從歷史上看,LTH 會在牛市期間發起分配,恰逢比特幣突破歷史高點 (ATH)。在長期持有期間累積了大量利潤後,他們利用牛市期間需求增加的機會,以優惠的價格出售代幣。
Recent LTH Distribution and Historical Patterns
近期 LTH 分佈與歷史模式
The recent ATH breach by Bitcoin has mirrored previous patterns, with LTHs commencing their sales anew. Data from Glassnode reveals a decline in LTH supply, indicating active distribution.
比特幣最近發生的 ATH 違規事件反映了先前的模式,LTH 重新開始銷售。 Glassnode 的數據顯示 LTH 供應量下降,顯示分佈活躍。
In past bull cycles, the surge in demand for Bitcoin has absorbed LTH sell-offs for approximately 6-8 months, fueling further price increases. Historically, LTH supply has undergone drawdowns of around 14% during these bull run selloffs.
在過去的牛市週期中,比特幣需求的激增吸收了 LTH 約 6-8 個月的拋售,推動價格進一步上漲。從歷史上看,在牛市拋售期間,LTH 供應量經歷了約 14% 的下降。
Current Cycle Progress and Future Outlook
當前週期進展與未來展望
Applying this historical drawdown average to the current Bitcoin cycle, Glassnode's lead analyst, Checkmate, estimates that the cycle has progressed approximately 40%. This implies that significant upside potential remains.
Glassnode 的首席分析師 Checkmate 將此歷史回撤平均值應用於當前的比特幣週期,估計該週期已進展約 40%。這意味著仍然存在巨大的上行潛力。
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Ascends to $71,800
技術分析:比特幣升至 71,800 美元
Bolstering this bullish outlook, Bitcoin has experienced a notable surge in the past 24 hours, reclaiming its position above $71,800. This upward movement aligns with the broader market sentiment, indicating a potential continuation of the bull run.
比特幣在過去 24 小時內經歷了顯著飆升,重新回到 71,800 美元上方的位置,支撐了這種看漲前景。這種上漲趨勢與更廣泛的市場情緒一致,顯示多頭市場可能會持續。
Conclusion
結論
Based on the analysis of LTH behavior, historical patterns, and technical indicators, the current Bitcoin bull run appears poised for further substantial gains. While market volatility is inherent to any investment, the confluence of these positive factors suggests that Bitcoin's upward trajectory is far from over. Investors are advised to exercise due diligence and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions, but the signs point to a promising future for the world's leading cryptocurrency.
根據 LTH 行為、歷史模式和技術指標的分析,目前的比特幣牛市似乎有望進一步大幅上漲。雖然市場波動是任何投資所固有的,但這些積極因素的綜合表明,比特幣的上升軌跡還遠未結束。建議投資者在做出任何投資決定之前進行盡職調查並進行自己的研究,但跡象表明世界領先的加密貨幣前景光明。
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