2025年：年比特幣（BTC）成為變革性的儲備資產？

Fidelity的一份新研究報告引發了加密貨幣社區及以後的討論，這表明2025年可能是變革的一年

A new research report from Fidelity has sparked discussions within the cryptocurrency community and beyond, suggesting that 2025 could be a transformative year for Bitcoin (BTC). According to the study, central banks and sovereign governments may begin to buy Bitcoin on a large scale, potentially surpassing the inflow from newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. This shift in investment strategy could have massive implications for the value of Bitcoin. But how realistic is this scenario, and what would it mean for the future of Bitcoin?

Fidelity的一份新研究報告引發了加密貨幣社區及以後的討論，這表明2025年可能是比特幣（BTC）的變革一年。根據這項研究，中央銀行和主權政府可能會開始大規模購買比特幣，從而超過新推出的現貨比特幣ETF的流入。投資策略的這種轉變可能會對比特幣的價值產生巨大影響。但是，這種情況有多現實，對比特幣的未來意味著什麼？

The idea of central banks and governments accumulating Bitcoin gained traction following the U.S. government’s proposal to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This proposal would see the U.S. purchasing Bitcoin in a systematic manner, fundamentally changing how sovereign nations view the cryptocurrency. Currently, the U.S. is the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin, but there has been no formal strategy in place for acquiring it until now.

根據美國政府建立戰略性比特幣儲備的提議，中央銀行和政府積累的比特幣的想法受到了關注。該提案將以系統的方式看到美國購買比特幣，從根本上改變主權國家如何看待加密貨幣。目前，美國是比特幣最大的主權持有人，但迄今為止還沒有採取正式策略。

The BITCOIN Act of 2024 lays out a plan for the U.S. to buy up to one million Bitcoins over a five-year period, which represents about 5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. This plan would position the U.S. as a Bitcoin powerhouse, ensuring that it holds a significant portion of the world’s Bitcoin. Some estimates even suggest that the U.S. could purchase as much as 550 Bitcoins per day until it accumulates a total of 4 million Bitcoins.

2024年的《比特幣法案》制定了一項計劃，使美國在五年內購買多達一百萬個比特幣，這約佔比特幣循環供應的5％。該計劃將把美國定位為比特幣的強大企業，以確保它擁有世界比特幣的很大一部分。一些估計甚至表明，美國每天可以購買多達550個比特幣，直到累積400萬比特幣為止。

While this idea of a strategic Bitcoin reserve might sound ambitious, the potential consequences could have a far-reaching impact globally. The U.S. — as the largest economy in the world — has the power to set trends, and if the U.S. starts purchasing Bitcoin in large amounts, other nations may follow suit. As Fidelity points out, this could trigger a phenomenon referred to as “political and economic game theory,” or what many in the crypto world recognize as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

儘管這種戰略性比特幣儲備的想法聽起來可能雄心勃勃，但潛在的後果在全球範圍內可能會產生深遠的影響。作為世界上最大的經濟體 - 美國有能力設定趨勢，如果美國開始大量購買比特幣，其他國家可能會效仿。正如富達指出的那樣，這可能會引發一種稱為“政治和經濟遊戲理論”的現象，或者在加密貨幣世界中的許多人認為是FOMO（害怕錯過）。

If the U.S. secures such a massive Bitcoin reserve, other countries may feel compelled to act similarly to ensure they don’t fall behind in the global financial system. Countries that do not adopt Bitcoin could risk being left out of the growing digital economy, creating a competitive pressure for nations to accumulate Bitcoin for geopolitical and economic reasons.

如果美國獲得瞭如此龐大的比特幣儲備，其他國家可能會感到不得不採取類似的行動，以確保它們不會落後於全球金融體系。不採用比特幣的國家可能有可能被排除在不斷增長的數字經濟之外，從而為各國出於地緣政治和經濟原因累積比特幣的競爭壓力。

If the U.S. and other nations move forward with these large-scale Bitcoin purchases, the demand for Bitcoin would increase exponentially. The result could be a massive price surge, as the supply of Bitcoin becomes even more constrained. This would likely drive up the value of Bitcoin, making it a central asset in global reserves.

如果美國和其他國家通過這些大規模的比特幣購買前進，對比特幣的需求將呈指​​數增長。隨著比特幣的供應變得更加限制，結果可能是巨大的價格上漲。這可能會推動比特幣的價值，使其成為全球儲備中的核心資產。

In fact, the amount of money flowing into Bitcoin through sovereign purchases could potentially outpace the investments made via spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have already seen significant interest. As the game shifts from speculative investments to institutional accumulation, the potential for Bitcoin to skyrocket in value becomes increasingly plausible.

實際上，通過君主購買流入比特幣的金額可能會超過通過現貨比特幣ETF進行的投資，這些投資已經引起了人們的興趣。隨著遊戲從投機投資轉變為機構積累，比特幣在價值上飛漲的潛力變得越來越合理。

However, there are still many uncertainties surrounding this proposal. While the U.S. government’s interest in Bitcoin is growing, the official creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve remains uncertain. Furthermore, the Trump administration seems to be distancing itself from the idea of a “Bitcoin reserve,” instead considering it more as a “national digital asset stockpile.” This could mean that other digital assets besides Bitcoin may be included in the U.S. government’s plans, further complicating the situation.

但是，該提議仍然存在許多不確定性。儘管美國政府對比特幣的興趣正在增長，但戰略比特幣儲備的正式創建仍然不確定。此外，特朗普政府似乎正在遠離“比特幣儲備”的想法，而是將其更多地視為“國家數字資產庫存”。這可能意味著除了比特幣以外的其他數字資產可能包括在美國政府的計劃中，從而使情況變得更加複雜。

Moreover, the global financial system’s adaptation to Bitcoin as a reserve asset poses challenges. If Bitcoin were to be adopted at such a scale, it would require changes in how currencies and central bank reserves are structured globally. This would be an unprecedented shift with potentially massive implications for traditional fiat currencies.

此外，全球金融體係對比特幣的改編會帶來挑戰。如果要以這樣的規模採用比特幣，則需要更改貨幣和中央銀行儲量在全球結構上的結構。這將是一個前所未有的轉變，對傳統法定貨幣有潛在的巨大影響。

Could 2025 be the turning point for Bitcoin? While the idea of central banks and sovereign governments acquiring Bitcoin is still in its early stages, the notion that these entities could begin buying Bitcoin in the next few years is becoming more likely. Whether this plan will actually come to fruition is uncertain, but the potential impact on the market is clear: an influx of government-backed Bitcoin purchases could skyrocket its value and solidify its place in the global financial landscape.

2025可以是比特幣的轉折點嗎？儘管中央銀行和主權政府獲得比特幣的想法仍處於早期階段，但這些實體可以在未來幾年開始購買比特幣的觀念越來越有可能。該計劃是否真正實現了，尚不確定，但對市場的潛在影響很明顯：政府支持的比特幣購買的湧入可能會激增其價值並鞏固其在全球金融環境中的地位。