比特幣 (BTC) 預計在 2025 年創下歷史新高

看起來可能並非如此，但比特幣 (BTC -1.02%) 預計在 2025 年創下歷史新高。相似，當時它繼續創下新高。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has had its ups and downs in recent months, but the world's largest cryptocurrency is still on track to hit a new all-time high in 2025.

比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）近幾個月來經歷了起起落落，但全球最大的加密貨幣仍有望在 2025 年創下歷史新高。

Even with the recent dip and its inability to mount any substantial momentum, the cryptocurrency is following a pattern.

儘管最近價格下跌且無法形成任何實質勢頭，但加密貨幣仍在遵循一種模式。

Specifically, Bitcoin has demonstrated clear, notable price patterns over its history, occurring over the course of four years.

具體來說，比特幣在其四年的歷史中表現出了清晰、顯著的價格模式。

Typically, what we see is a bear market like the one in 2022, a notable recovery in the following year, continued progress in year three when the halving takes place, and then a cyclical peak hits in the year after the halving.

通常情況下，我們看到的是像2022年那樣的熊市，次年出現顯著復甦，第三年減半時繼續進步，然後在減半後的一年出現週期性峰值。

We are currently in year three, the halving year. And Bitcoin appears to be following the traditional four-year pattern this time around, just like in the last cycles.

我們目前正處於第三年，即減半年。這一次，比特幣似乎遵循傳統的四年模式，就像上一個週期一樣。

This means that we can use some of its historical performance to get an idea of what 2025 might have in store.

這意味著我們可以利用其一些歷史表現來了解 2025 年可能會發生什麼。

In the years that a halving occurs, Bitcoin increases by about 125% on average. If this holds true this year, then that means we could expect to see Bitcoin hit nearly $100,000 by the end of 2024.

在減半發生的幾年裡，比特幣平均上漲約 125%。如果今年情況屬實，那麼這意味著我們預計到 2024 年底比特幣價格將達到近 10 萬美元。

This price was derived by calculating a 125% increase from Bitcoin's price at the beginning of the year, which was $44,000.

這個價格是透過比年初比特幣價格 44,000 美元上漲 125% 計算得出的。

So let's jump ahead to the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. On average, in the year after a halving, Bitcoin returns a blistering 400%.

因此，讓我們跳到 2024 年底和 2025 年初。

The most obvious reason for such monumental performance during these years is that the market begins to adjust to the halving, meaning that in these years the supply shock finally materializes.

這些年來如此巨大表現的最明顯原因是市場開始適應減半，這意味著這些年供應衝擊終於成為現實。

If this happens again and Bitcoin finishes 2024 in line with the historical average, that would put its price around $500,000 in 2025.

如果這種情況再次發生，而比特幣在 2024 年結束時與歷史平均值保持一致，那麼到 2025 年其價格將達到 50 萬美元左右。

Before wrapping this up, it's worth highlighting that as fanciful as this number might sound, Bitcoin often exceeds expectations in bull markets. It has made a name for itself by doing this.

在結束之前，值得強調的是，儘管這個數字聽起來有些異想天開，但比特幣在牛市中往往超出預期。它透過這樣做而為自己贏得了聲譽。

So even though $500,000 might seem outlandish, stranger things have happened. For instance, the crypto jumped 850% in 2011.

因此，儘管 50 萬美元看起來有些奇怪，但更奇怪的事情還是發生了。例如，加密貨幣在 2011 年上漲了 850%。

But to be completely honest, whether Bitcoin hits this price or not in 2025 shouldn't really matter for investors.

但說實話，比特幣在 2025 年是否達到這個價格對投資者來說並不重要。

What's crucial is understanding the long-term dynamics that make it a unique investment. The price is driven by its supply-and-demand dynamics, which are changing favorably as the years pass.

至關重要的是了解使其成為獨特投資的長期動態。價格是由供需動態驅動的，隨著時間的推移，供需動態正在發生有利的變化。

For example, its supply is capped at 21 million coins (19.7 million now are in circulation), and this scarcity is one of its defining features.

例如，其供應量上限為 2,100 萬枚（目前有 1,970 萬枚在流通），這種稀缺性是其決定性特徵之一。

And demand is increasing. Institutional interest has surged in recent years, and the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will further democratize access.

而且需求正在增加。近年來，機構興趣激增，現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的推出將進一步實現准入民主化。

Retail interest also remains strong, with an ever-growing number of individuals looking to it as a store of value.

零售興趣也依然強勁，越來越多的人將其視為價值儲存手段。

Then there's Bitcoin's decentralized nature and its growing role in a world where trust in traditional financial systems is wavering.

此外，比特幣的去中心化性質及其在傳統金融體系信任動搖的世界中所扮演的日益重要的角色。

The digital coin offers an alternative that is not subject to government control or monetary policy, an increasing luxury as fiat currencies continue to inflate.

數位硬幣提供了一種不受政府控製或貨幣政策約束的替代方案，隨著法定貨幣的持續膨脹，這種選擇越來越奢侈。

Investors would do well to focus on these dynamics rather than fixate on precise price targets. Bitcoin's potential to redefine finance and serve as a robust store of value remains strong, making it a compelling investment especially as it experiences a pronounced sell-off.

投資者最好專注於這些動態，而不是專注於精確的價格目標。比特幣重新定義金融並作為強大的價值儲存手段的潛力仍然強勁，使其成為一項引人注目的投資，尤其是在它經歷了明顯的拋售的情況下。