比特幣（BTC）類似螺旋彈簧，可能會向任一方向釋放能量

希望利用價格大幅波動的波動性交易者可能很快就會找到機會。一項關鍵指標表明，比特幣 (BTC) 目前已突破 100 美元

Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a volatility explosion, an indicator suggests.

一項指標表明，比特幣（BTC）可能會出現波動性爆炸。

The indicator is the rolling 60-day price range, which shows the variation in maximum and minimum price ticks in percentage terms. A tighter range usually implies stable market conditions characterized by range play and demand-supply equilibrium.

該指標是 60 天的滾動價格範圍，以百分比形式顯示最大和最小價格變動的變化。較窄的區間通常意味著穩定的市場狀況，其特徵是區間波動和供需平衡。

However, Glassnode’s analysis shows that bitcoin’s 60-day range is now tighter than the current trading range.

然而，Glassnode 的分析顯示，比特幣的 60 天區間現在比目前的交易區間更窄。

“Historically, such instances have presaged volatility explosions. All of these instances have occurred prior to a significant burst of volatility, with the majority being in early bull markets or prior to late-stage capitulations in bear cycles,” Glassnode said in its weekly analysis report.

「從歷史上看，此類情況預示著波動性的爆發。所有這些情況都發生在大幅波動之前，其中大多數發生在牛市早期或熊市週期後期投降之前，」Glassnode 在其每週分析報告中表示。

Volatility is Mean-Reverting

波動性是均值回歸

Volatility is mean-reverting, that is, it tends to oscillate around its lifetime average. Rapid price swings typically follow a low-volatility period and vice versa.

波動性是均值回歸的，也就是說，它傾向於圍繞其生命週期平均值振盪。價格快速波動通常伴隨著低波動期，反之亦然。

It is also price agnostic. Higher volatility means price fluctuations will become bigger and potentially more unpredictable. It does not say whether prices will surge or slump.

它也與價格無關。更高的波動性意味著價格波動將變得更大並且可能更難預測。它沒有說明價格會上漲還是下跌。

Recent flows, however, have been biased bullish, particularly on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where traders have been piling into call options. A similar bullish bias is apparent on Deribit and other exchanges.

然而，最近的資金流向偏向看漲，尤其是在芝加哥商品交易所，交易員紛紛買入買權。 Deribit 和其他交易所也存在類似的看漲偏見。

“BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as the market’s net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1,” QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast.

「比特幣期貨持續呈上升趨勢，尤其是在前端，因為上週市場的淨多頭部位仍然穩固。目前看漲押注與看跌押注的比例約為 20:1，」QCP Capital 在 Telegram 廣播中表示。

If the positioning is a guide, it’s safe to say that market participants expect a bullish resolution to BTC’s multiweek consolidation between $90,000 and $110,000.

如果定位是一個指導，那麼可以肯定地說，市場參與者預計 BTC 在 90,000 美元至 110,000 美元之間的多周盤整將出現看漲決議。