比特幣（BTC）持倉量快速增加，但該資產目前可能處於高風險區域

正如 CryptoQuant 社群經理 Maartunn 在 X 上的一篇新文章中所解釋的那樣，比特幣持倉量剛剛飆升至高水平。

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn has highlighted an interesting trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest, and how it may be putting the asset at risk of a downturn.

CryptoQuant 社群經理 Maartunn 強調了比特幣未平倉合約的一個有趣趨勢，以及它如何使該資產面臨低迷的風險。

According to Maartunn, the Bitcoin Open Interest has just surged to high levels. This indicator tracks the total amount of BTC-related positions currently open on all derivatives exchanges.

據 Maartunn 稱，比特幣持倉量剛剛飆升至高位。該指標追蹤所有衍生性商品交易所目前未平倉的 BTC 相關部位總量。

When the value of this metric rises, it indicates that investors are opening up fresh positions on the derivatives market. Since this trend leads to higher overall leverage in the sector, it can result in greater asset price volatility.

當該指標的數值上升時，表示投資者正在衍生性商品市場上開設新部位。由於這種趨勢導致該行業整體槓桿率上升，因此可能導致資產價格波動更大。

On the other hand, when the indicator heads down, it suggests that the derivatives contract holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform.

另一方面，當該指標向下時，則表示衍生性合約持有者要么主動平倉，要么被平台強行平倉。

This kind of trend can lead to more stability for BTC.

這種趨勢可以使比特幣更加穩定。

Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past year:

下圖顯示了過去一年比特幣持倉量的趨勢：

Bitcoin Open Interest Surged To High Levels Recently – Can BTC Handle It? As highlighted in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest had cooled off to relatively low levels earlier in the month as the asset’s price crashed. However, with the recovery in the coin, the indicator has been noting growth once again.

近期比特幣持倉量飆升，BTC能扛得住嗎？如上圖所示，隨著資產價格暴跌，本月稍早比特幣持倉量已冷卻至相對較低的水平。然而，隨著代幣的復甦，該指標再次出現成長。

Currently, the indicator is at a high value, which could potentially indicate that the market has become overleveraged. As mentioned earlier, a high metric value can lead to more volatility for BTC.

目前，該指標處於高位，這可能表明市場已經過度槓桿化。如前所述，較高的指標值可能會導致 BTC 的波動更大。

The reason behind this is that mass liquidation events can become more likely to occur at these levels, which can cause the price to move more drastically.

背後的原因是，在這些水準上更可能發生大規模清算事件，這可能導致價格波動更劇烈。

On paper, the volatility emerging from an Open Interest increase can take the coin in either direction. However, BTC has shown a consistent pattern in the past year.

從表面上看，未平倉量增加所產生的波動性可以使代幣朝任一方向發展。然而，比特幣在過去一年中表現出了一致的模式。

As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the indicator entering into the same zone as now has usually turned out to be bearish for Bitcoin in this window.

正如分析師在圖表中所強調的那樣，指標進入與現在相同的區域通常會在這個視窗中對比特幣產生利空。

In these instances, the Open Interest surge had occurred alongside price surges, indicating that long positions were being piled up. The latest growth in the indicator has also naturally come similarly.

在這些情況下，未平倉量的激增與價格的飆升同時發生，顯示多頭部位正在堆積。此指標的最新成長自然也是類似的。

“We’re in a high-risk zone, and in my opinion, it’s not the best time for fresh long positions,” Maartunn noted. It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will fare in the coming days and if it will hit the top, just like it did during those other instances.

「我們正處於高風險區域，在我看來，現在不是建立新多頭部位的最佳時機，」Maartunn 指出。現在，比特幣在未來幾天的表現如何，是否會像其他情況一樣達到頂峰，還有待觀察。