比特幣（BTC）回檔歸因於美國國債期限溢價減少和即將到期的選擇權

比特幣 (BTC) 從略低於 10 萬美元的歷史高點大幅回調引發了交易員的擔憂

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) sharp pullback from its record high just under $100,000 has sparked concern among traders, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note to Benzinga on Friday.

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered) 的杰弗裡·肯德里克(Geoffrey Kendrick) 在周五給Benzinga 的一份報告中表示，比特幣(CRYPTO: BTC) 從略低於100,000 美元的歷史高位大幅回調引發了交易員的擔憂。

Several factors, including a reduction in U.S. Treasury term premium and upcoming options expirations, have contributed to the apex crypto’s correction.

包括美國國債期限溢價的減少和即將到期的選擇權在內的幾個因素導致了頂級加密貨幣的修正。

Kendrick highlighted the connection between U.S. Treasury term premium movements and the performance of the crypto market.

肯德里克強調了美國國債期限溢價變動與加密貨幣市場表現之間的關聯。

Data from the New York Fed, which tracks term premium, shows a recent decline, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent downturn.

紐約聯邦儲備銀行追蹤期限溢價的數據顯示近期有所下降，與比特幣近期的低迷相吻合。

“Being viewed often as a hedge against traditional financial ills, lower term premiums reduce the appeal for Bitcoin in this role,” the analyst said.

這位分析師表示：“較低的期限溢價通常被視為對沖傳統金融弊病的手段，因此降低了比特幣在這一角色中的吸引力。”

Adding to the downward pressure are the substantial monthly options expiries, scheduled for Friday.

定於週五到期的大量月度期權加劇了下行壓力。

According to Deribit data, BTC options with strike prices ranging from $85,000 to $100,000 account for over 18,000 BTC in open interest.

根據 Deribit 的數據，執行價格在 85,000 美元至 100,000 美元之間的 BTC 選擇權佔未平倉合約超過 18,000 BTC。

“Historically, options expirations have constrained price movement, with traders positioning themselves around these key levels, creating a magnet effect on spot prices,” Kendrick noted.

肯德里克指出：“從歷史上看，期權到期限制了價格走勢，交易者圍繞這些關鍵水平進行定位，對現貨價格產生磁石效應。”

He predicts a potential drop below $88,700 — the average purchase price for ETFs and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) since the U.S. elections.

他預計價格可能會跌破 88,700 美元——美國大選以來 ETF 和 MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) 的平均購買價格。

This could lead Bitcoin to test its critical support zone between $85,000 and $88,700 before resuming its uptrend.

這可能導致比特幣在恢復上升趨勢之前測試其 85,000 美元至 88,700 美元之間的關鍵支撐區域。

Despite the retracement, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust.

儘管出現回調，機構對比特幣的興趣仍然強勁。

Kendrick’s analysis showed that ETFs have recorded inflows of approximately 77,000 BTC since the U.S. elections, while MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 134,000 BTC.

Kendrick 的分析顯示，自美國大選以來，ETF 已記錄約 77,000 BTC 的流入，而 MicroStrategy 又收購了 134,000 BTC。

However, the analyst noted that the recent institutional buying at an average price of $88,700 could serve as a temporary ceiling until broader market dynamics shift.

然而，分析師指出，最近機構以 88,700 美元的平均價格買入可能會成為暫時的上限，直到更廣泛的市場動態轉變。

Kendrick maintains his year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin and a 2025 projection of $200,000.

Kendrick 維持比特幣年底目標為 125,000 美元，2025 年預測為 20 萬美元。

He views the current retracement as a necessary correction, driven by macroeconomic factors and technical market events.

他認為目前的回檔是由宏觀經濟因素和技術市場事件所推動的必要調整。

“We are still in a structural bull market,” Kendrick said. “Once these short-term headwinds subside, Bitcoin is well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory.”

「我們仍處於結構性牛市，」肯德里克說。 “一旦這些短期阻力消退，比特幣就有能力恢復其上升軌跡。”