比特幣 (BTC) 價格從歷史高點回落，鏈上指標預示著潛在的盤整或修正

比特幣的價格已從上週觸及的歷史高點 99,800 美元回落，並於 11 月 26 日跌至接近 90,000 美元的日低點。

Bitcoin price dropped to a daily low of around $90,000 on Nov. 26, as key metrics suggested the market is entering a period of potential consolidation or further correction.

11 月 26 日，比特幣價格跌至 90,000 美元左右的日低點，因為關鍵指標表明市場正在進入潛在盤整或進一步調整的時期。

These metrics include sustained miner selling, an elevated MVRV Z-Score, and high levels of Bitcoin held in profit, which could lead to sell pressure as the year-end approaches.

這些指標包括持續的礦工拋售、MVRV Z 分數的升高以及比特幣的高利潤水平，這可能會在年底臨近時導致拋售壓力。

The Miner Net Position Change metric showed that long-term holders, who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, sold down their positions by over 366,000 coins monthly, indicating the highest selling pressure since April.

礦工淨頭寸變化指標顯示，持有比特幣超過 155 天的長期持有者每月減持超過 366,000 個比特幣，這表明了自 4 月以來的最高拋售壓力。

This behavior reflects profit-taking by miners, a common occurrence during significant price rallies. Historically, such sustained sell-offs have correlated with local price tops as the market absorbs large inflows of Bitcoin into circulation.

這種行為反映了礦商的獲利了結，這在價格大幅上漲期間很常見。從歷史上看，隨著市場吸收大量比特幣流入流通，這種持續的拋售與當地價格頂部相關。

Furthermore, the Total Supply in Profit metric highlighted that a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.

此外，利潤中的總供應量指標強調，比特幣供應量的很大一部分目前處於獲利狀態。

This widespread profitability typically leads to increased selling, as holders lock in gains. In previous cycles, such high profitability levels have been followed by corrections, as profit-taking creates resistance against further upward momentum.

這種普遍的獲利能力通常會導致拋售增加，因為持有者鎖定了收益。在先前的周期中，如此高的獲利水準之後會出現調整，因為獲利了結會阻礙進一步的上漲勢頭。

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its realized value, is currently at elevated levels, indicating that Bitcoin is nearing overvaluation territory.

衡量比特幣相對於其實現價值的估值的 MVRV Z 分數目前處於較高水平，表明比特幣已接近估值過高區域。

While not yet at extreme levels, the Z-Score’s rise suggests the market is entering a phase of heightened risk. Previous instances of similar Z-Score levels have coincided with corrections or periods of consolidation as market participants reassess Bitcoin’s short-term potential.

雖然尚未達到極端水平，但 Z 分數的上升表明市場正在進入風險加劇的階段。由於市場參與者重新評估比特幣的短期潛力，先前類似 Z 分數水準的實例與修正或整合期同時發生。

However, not all the on-chain metrics support a bearish outlook. The Net Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges metric reveals a dominance of outflows, with over 13,300 BTC exiting exchanges on Nov. 26 alone.

然而，並非所有鏈上指標都支持看跌前景。交易所的淨轉帳量指標顯示資金流出占主導地位，光是 11 月 26 日就有超過 13,300 個 BTC 退出交易所。

Such outflows suggest investors are moving assets to cold wallets, signaling long-term holding intentions and a continued belief in a bullish BTC price future. However, any reversal to inflows could indicate rising sell pressure and exacerbate BTC price correction.

這種資金外流表明投資者正在將資產轉移到冷錢包，這表明了長期持有的意圖以及對看漲比特幣價格未來的持續信念。然而，資金流入的任何逆轉都可能表明拋售壓力上升，並加劇比特幣價格調整。

Meanwhile, The minuscule daily candle that the BTC USD pair has formed on Nov. 27 shows the declining excitement of market participants. The bullish cues driving Bitcoin prices, including the Trump election win and Gensler exit, seem to have been factored in by the market.

與此同時，BTC/USD 貨幣對在 11 月 27 日形成的日線小蠟燭顯示出市場參與者的興奮度正在下降。推動比特幣價格上漲的因素，包括川普當選和詹斯勒退出，似乎已經被市場考慮在內。

Now, traders are waiting on a decisive restart of the uptrend before entering the market. Bulls seem to be defending the 20-day EMA (red) support level near $89,000.

現在，交易者正在等待上升趨勢的決定性重啟，然後再入市。多頭似乎正在捍衛 89,000 美元附近的 20 日均線（紅色）支撐位。

However, breaching the immediate support might force BTC’s price to test support near $75,600 before recovering.

然而，突破即時支撐位可能會迫使 BTC 價格在恢復之前測試 75,600 美元附近的支撐位。

On the other hand, a break above $100,000 could provide Bitcoin’s price the impetus to rally to the resistance near $110,500. Breaking and consolidating above the immediate resistance might help the token rally to the resistance near $126,000 before retreating.

另一方面，突破 100,000 美元可能會為比特幣價格提供上漲至 110,500 美元附近阻力位的動力。突破並鞏固於直接阻力位上方可能有助於代幣反彈至 126,000 美元附近的阻力位，然後回落。

However, the consolidation phase could last until 2025 unless BTC finds some new cues to fuel its bull run.

然而，除非 BTC 找到一些新的線索來推動牛市，否則整合階段可能會持續到 2025 年。

The relative strength index for Bitcoin continued to be overbought, with a score of 78.19 on the daily charts. The overbought RSI levels add to the bearish cues against Bitcoin, strengthening the correction narrative

比特幣的相對強度指數繼續超買，日線圖得分為78.19。超買的 RSI 水準增加了對比特幣的看跌暗示，強化了修正的敘述