2024-25 年比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：川普就任總統會將 BTC 推至 30 萬美元嗎？

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣 [BTC] 在過去六週強勁上漲後，交易價格接近 10 萬美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] price at the time of writing was seen trading in the vicinity of the $100k-mark after having clocked in strong gains over the past six weeks. This impulse move higher began after the U.S presidential elections results were called on 5 November.

比特幣 [BTC] 價格在過去六週強勁上漲後，目前交易價格接近 10 萬美元大關。這種衝動性上漲是在 11 月 5 日美國總統大選結果公佈後開始的。

With regulatory clarity already benefiting crypto, such as with Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, other crypto assets are set to benefit too. Which ones would be the biggest winners from a Trump presidency?

由於監管的明確性已經使加密貨幣受益，例如 Ripple 的穩定幣 RLUSD，其他加密資產也將受益。哪些人將成為川普總統任期內的最大贏家？

Bitcoin strategic reserve for the United States?

美國的比特幣戰略儲備？

On Thursday, President-elect Donald Trump responded to a question regarding a potential Bitcoin reserve. He said to Jim Cramer, “We are gonna do something great with crypto,” speaking from the New York Stock Exchange.

週四，當選總統唐納德·川普回答了有關潛在比特幣儲備的問題。他在紐約證券交易所對吉姆·克萊默（Jim Cramer）說，「我們將利用加密貨幣做一些偉大的事情」。

During his previous presidency, Trump had pointed to rising stock prices and asserted that the market was strong and America was becoming great again. In the coming months and years, he might use Bitcoin’s rising prices to make a point, vindicating his election promises related to crypto.

在上一任總統期間，川普曾指出股價上漲，並斷言市場強勁，美國正在再次變得偉大。在未來的幾個月和幾年裡，他可能會利用比特幣價格上漲來表明自己的觀點，以證明他與加密貨幣相關的競選承諾。

One of them was a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, with legislation introduced in the Texas House of Representatives on 12 December to establish this.

其中之一是國家戰略比特幣儲備，德州眾議院於 12 月 12 日提出立法來建立這項儲備。

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

來源：TradingView 上的 BTC/USDT

The differences between the previous cycle’s price action and this one’s are many. A 34-week consolidation after making a new high against USD came earlier this year, lasting from March to early November. In 2020, BTC faced resistance at ATH, but blasted past it in under three weeks.

上一個週期的價格走勢與本週期的價格走勢之間有許多差異。今年早些時候，美元兌美元創出新高後，出現了為期 34 週的盤整，從 3 月持續到 11 月初。 2020 年，BTC 在 ATH 處遇到阻力，但在不到三週的時間內就突破了這個阻力位。

Thereafter, it went on to make close to 400% gains before April 2021. A similar run would take BTC close to $300k in April 2025, but we know that successive cycles take more time and produce less percentage gains.

此後，它在2021 年4 月之前繼續上漲近400%。少。

The previous ATH being broken before the BTC halving date arrived has not yet occurred. An eight-month consolidation under those highs in a halving year is also a new phenomenon. This cycle might be driven to the seemingly impossible $280k-$300k levels with President Trump at the helm, heralding each new week’s ATH as his victory.

之前在BTC減半日期到來之前ATH被打破的情況還沒發生。在減半的一年裡，在這些高點下方長達八個月的盤整也是一種新現象。在川普總統的掌舵下，這一周期可能會被推向看似不可能的 28 萬至 30 萬美元水平，並預示著新一周的 ATH 就是他的勝利。

D.O.G.E. co-head Musk could drive the memecoin market

DOGE 聯合主管馬斯克可能會推動迷因幣市場

Other influential figures or KOLs could help drive other sectors of the market higher. A few weeks ago we saw Murad Mahmudov emerge as a key memecoin KOL, but none might beat the previous cycle’s top Dogecoin shill spot.

其他有影響力的人物或 KOL 可以幫助推動市場其他領域的上漲。幾週前，我們看到穆拉德·馬哈茂多夫 (Murad Mahmudov) 成為關鍵的模因幣 KOL，但沒有人能擊敗上一周期的狗狗幣最高騙子位置。

Elon Musk, owner of X (formerly Twitter) was one of the reasons behind the rise of Dogecoin during the previous cycle. His vast reach and public perception of technological genius meant people put a great deal of faith in his words.

X（前 Twitter）所有者 Elon Musk）是上一周期狗狗幣崛起的原因之一。他的廣泛影響力和公眾對技術天才的認知意味著人們對他的話充滿信心。

When he shared memes related to DOGE or news of Tesla accepting Dogecoin as payment, these updates contributed to DOGE’s rise. And yet, his influence waned as the cycle matured.

當他分享與 DOGE 相關的表情包或特斯拉接受狗狗幣作為付款方式的消息時，這些更新促成了 DOGE 的崛起。然而，隨著週期的成熟，他的影響力逐漸減弱。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-25 價格預測

As co-lead of the Department of Government Efficiency or D.O.G.E., any official mentions of the department have the capability to lead to Dogecoin pumping.

身為政府效率部（DOGE）的共同領導，任何官方提及該部門的行為都有可能導致狗狗幣暴漲。

An example of this was seen in mid-October Four days later, DOGE was up 26%. Although the tweet was not the only reason (Bitcoin was also pumping at that time), it did raise the visibility of the most popular memecoin.

10 月中旬就是一個例子。儘管這條推文不是唯一的原因（比特幣當時也很火爆），但它確實提高了最受歡迎的迷因幣的知名度。

Source: DOGE/USDT on TradingView

來源：TradingView 上的 DOGE/USDT

The range formation after the rallies towards the end of the previous cycles was highlighted on the chart, and they had a relatively comparable age. The breakout in early 2024 and retracement was a bit like the February 2021 rally to $0.088. A subsequent 1,400% rally was seen in six weeks too.

圖表中突出顯示了前一個週期結束時的反彈後的區間形成，並且它們的年齡相對可比。 2024 年初的突破和回檔有點像 2021 年 2 月上漲至 0.088 美元。隨後六週內也出現了 1,400% 的反彈。

While that is unlikely to repeat, a similar performance for Dogecoin in the coming months would take it to $1.334. A respectably bullish target, but possibly too conservative for this run. Musk’s tweets could be a game-changer, as could the capital rotation from BTC to top-performing altcoins towards the end of the cycle.

雖然這種情況不太可能重演，但狗狗幣在未來幾個月的類似表現將使其達到 1.334 美元。這是一個相當看漲的目標，但對於這次運行來說可能過於保守。馬斯克的推文可能會改變遊戲規則，就像在周期結束時資本從 BTC 轉向表現最好的山寨幣一樣。