根據歷史數據，比特幣 (BTC) 價格預計到 2025 年將達到 20 萬美元

幾年來，人們一直預期比特幣價格將達到 6 位數大關，但對於這種加密貨幣來說，這一目標仍然難以實現。

Crypto analysts are known for their outlandish price predictions, and while some may hit the mark, others tend to miss the target by a mile. However, one crypto analyst has taken a unique approach to predicting the Bitcoin price, using historical data to chart a 13-year trend that could see BTC hit $200,000 by 2025.

加密貨幣分析師以其古怪的價格預測而聞名，雖然有些人可能達到目標，但其他人往往會偏離目標一英里。然而，一位加密貨幣分析師採用了一種獨特的方法來預測比特幣價格，利用歷史數據繪製 13 年趨勢圖，預計到 2025 年 BTC 價格將達到 20 萬美元。

In an X (formerly Twitter) post on March 12, pseudonymous crypto analyst @apsk32 shared a 13-year trend that has held true for Bitcoin since its inception. This trend uses a power law equation and an exponential decay to help pinpoint how high the BTC price will go in each cycle and how low it could possibly drop after.

在 3 月 12 日的 X（前 Twitter）貼文中，匿名加密貨幣分析師 @apsk32 分享了自比特幣誕生以來 13 年的趨勢。這種趨勢使用冪律方程式和指數衰減來幫助確定比特幣價格在每個週期中會漲到多高以及之後可能跌到多低。

The Power Law Cycle Cloud, demonstrated by the crypto analyst in a video attached to the X post, showed how high the BTC price has risen and dropped in the last three bull and bear cycles. Using the same trend, the crypto analyst has proposed how high the Bitcoin price will rise.

加密貨幣分析師在 X 貼文附帶的影片中演示了冪律週期雲，顯示了 BTC 價格在過去三個牛市和熊市週期中的上漲和下跌幅度。利用相同的趨勢，加密貨幣分析師提出了比特幣價格將上漲多高。

According to the trend, the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will break the 6-figure mark and peak just below or at $200,000. The year when this is expected to happen is 2025, which would stick to the established four-year bull cycles for BTC.

根據趨勢，加密貨幣分析師認為比特幣價格將突破 6 位數大關，並達到略低於 20 萬美元的峰值。預計這種情況發生的年份是 2025 年，這將遵循 BTC 既定的四年牛市週期。

“This power law + exponential decay price channel has guided BTC's price minima and maxima over the last 13 years (log scale). We can use it to anticipate price targets for the upcoming bull,” stated the crypto analyst in the X post.

「這種冪律+指數衰減價格通道在過去 13 年引導了 BTC 的價格最小值和最大值（對數尺度）。我們可以用它來預測即將到來的牛市的價格目標，」加密貨幣分析師在 X 帖子中表示。

“Applying the same trend to the upcoming bull market, we can anticipate BTC peaking at $175,000-$200,000 in 2025. After this, we can expect a bear market that drops BTC to $75,000-$90,000.”

「將同樣的趨勢應用於即將到來的牛市，我們可以預計 BTC 將於 2025 年達到 175,000-200,000 美元的峰值。此後，我們可以預計 BTC 會跌至 75,000-90,000 美元的熊市。」

Bitcoin Price Trend Adhered To Despite Bear Markets

儘管熊市，比特幣價格仍維持趨勢

The crypto analyst further addressed concerns that the Bitcoin price could deviate from this trend. For one, he points out that Bitcoin proponent Micheal Saylor had said that “all your models will be broken!” However, the analyst highlights the fact that the model Saylor eventually presents for BTC also aligns with what the Power Law says.

這位加密貨幣分析師進一步解決了人們對比特幣價格可能偏離這一趨勢的擔憂。首先，他指出比特幣支持者 Micheal Saylor 曾說過“你的所有模型都會被打破！”然而，分析師強調了這樣一個事實：Saylor 最終為 BTC 提出的模型也符合冪律所說的。

“Micheal Saylor says 'all your models will be broken!' But even the model he presents for BTC aligns with the Power Law,” stated the crypto analyst.

“邁克爾·塞勒說‘你所有的模型都會被破壞！’但即使是他為 BTC 提出的模型也符合冪律，」這位加密貨幣分析師表示。

The analyst also acknowledges the potential of an invalidation, saying, “I’ll watch for an invalidation of the channel. As someone who’s seen the value of their BTC fall by 80% twice, I’m looking for more than ‘this time will be different’.”

該分析師也承認失效的可能性，他說：「我會關注該通道是否失效。作為一個親眼目睹自己的 BTC 價值兩次下跌 80% 的人，我期待的不僅僅是‘這一次會有所不同’。

As for Bitcoin moving away from the power law and exponential decay trend, the crypto analyst explained, “We don’t have to like this, but we need to respect it.” He further added, “We can hope it will change while staying aware of this 13-year trend.”

至於比特幣擺脫冪律和指數衰減趨勢，這位加密貨幣分析師解釋說，“我們不必喜歡這一點，但我們需要尊重它。”他進一步補充道，“我們希望它能夠改變，同時保持對這一 13 年趨勢的認識。”