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5月的美國通貨膨脹數據顯示出比預期的溫和跡象,這給風險資產帶來了積極的信號。
U.S. inflation data for May showed a milder sign than expected on Wednesday, bringing positive signals to risk assets. Specifically, the unseasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual rate of 2.4%, lower than the market's general expectation of 2.5%; the monthly rate was only 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%.
5月的美國通貨膨脹數據顯示出比周三預期的溫和跡象,這給風險資產帶來了積極的信號。具體而言,未經季節性調整的消費者價格指數(CPI)的年率為2.4%,低於市場的總預期2.5%;每月的費率僅為0.1%,也低於預期的0.2%。
Core inflation data (excluding volatile food and energy prices) also showed a similar slowdown trend: the annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.
核心通貨膨脹數據(不包括波動性食品和能源價格)也顯示出類似的放緩趨勢:年率為2.8%,低於預期的2.9%;而且,經季節性調整的CORE CPI月度匯率僅為0.1%,明顯低於市場預期的0.3%。
After the report was released, the crypto market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. #Bitcoin once approached $110,000 during the day, #Ethereum (ETH) rose 3% to $2,834, and XRP rose 1.8% to $2.32. The total market value of cryptocurrencies remained around $3.4 trillion in the past 24 hours.
報告發布後,加密貨幣市場顯示出首先上升然後下降的趨勢。 #BitCoin曾經在白天接近$ 110,000,#Ethereum(ETH)上漲了3%至2,834美元,XRP上漲了1.8%,至2.32美元。在過去的24小時內,加密貨幣的總市場價值仍約為3.4萬億美元。
CoinGlass data shows that as of the time of writing this article, the 24-hour liquidation amount of the entire network reached $300 million, of which Ethereum liquidation amounted to about $100 million and Bitcoin liquidation amounted to about $37 million.
Coinglass數據顯示,截至撰寫本文時,整個網絡的24小時清算量達到3億美元,其中以太坊清算約為1億美元,比特幣清算約為3700萬美元。
Big Whale Movement
大鯨魚運動
As BTC rose and then fell, on-chain data also observed an increase in whale activity.
隨著BTC升起然後下降,鏈上數據也觀察到鯨魚活動的增加。
On June 11, the on-chain tracking platform Whale Alert discovered that a large amount of Bitcoin flowed into the US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. According to data provided by the tracking platform, in just about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred more than 3,165 Bitcoins (worth more than $347 million) to Coinbase through several transactions.
6月11日,鏈接跟踪平台鯨魚警報發現大量比特幣流入了美國加密貨幣交易所Coinbase。根據跟踪平台提供的數據,僅在大約兩個小時內,多個匿名鯨魚通過幾筆交易轉移了超過3165個比特幣(價值超過3.47億美元)。
The largest transaction involved 738 BTC, and the remaining transactions were also large-value anonymous wallet transfers (such as 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, etc.).
最大的交易涉及738 BTC,其餘交易也是大價值匿名錢包轉移(例如466 BTC,464 BTC,463 BTC,463 BTC等)。
It is worth noting that 510 BTC (worth about $56.1 million) were transferred from Cumberland, a well-known crypto trading company, to Coinbase Institutional, which generally indicates that whales may be trying to sell their tokens. Although the specific reasons for these transfers have not been confirmed, they may also be attempts by whales to rebalance their portfolios. However, considering the large volume and high repetitiveness of these transfers, as well as the participation of Cumberland and others, this is likely to be the action of large players, especially institutions.
值得注意的是,從著名的加密貨幣貿易公司坎伯蘭(Cumberland)轉移到Coinbase Institutional,這通常表明鯨魚可能正在嘗試出售其令牌。儘管尚未確認這些轉移的具體原因,但鯨魚也可能試圖重新平衡其投資組合。但是,考慮到這些轉移的大量和較高的重複性以及坎伯蘭郡和其他人的參與,這可能是大型參與者,尤其是機構的行動。
Perhaps affected by the activity of this giant whale, Bitcoin fell below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day and stabilized around $108,677 as of press time.
比特幣也許受到這隻巨大的鯨魚活動的影響,在當天開業時跌至110,000美元低於110,000美元的成績,截至發稿時,比特幣穩定在108,677美元左右。
Trend and technical analysis
趨勢和技術分析
Data shows that the current funding rate in the Bitcoin contract market is very stable or low.
數據表明,比特幣合同市場的當前籌資率非常穩定或較低。
The author believes that this generally indicates that the current rebound is driven by investors' actual purchases of spot rather than by highly leveraged contract transactions. In the absence of high-leverage positions in the market, the risk of triggering large-scale sell-offs and sharp declines is low, so the currency price is more likely to continue to rise.
作者認為,這通常表明當前的反彈是由投資者實際購買現貨而不是由高度槓桿合同交易驅動的。在市場上沒有高槓杆位置的情況下,引發大規模拋售和急劇下降的風險很低,因此貨幣價格更有可能繼續上漲。
From the technical chart, Bitcoin opened higher by about 1% yesterday, with a price around 110,375 points. After opening, BTC fluctuated around this price for about 180 minutes, then began to slowly decline and hit an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 pm, BTC quickly rose and finally closed at around 110,455 points. On that day, a positive cross candlestick with a long lower shadow was closed, with an increase of about 1.02%.
從技術圖表中,比特幣昨天開放約1%,價格約為110,375點。開放後,BTC在這個價格上波動約180分鐘,然後開始慢慢下降,並在11:33左右的108,720點命中率。下午2:02左右,BTC迅速上升,最終以110,455分約為110,455分。那天,關閉了長長陰影的正面交叉燭台,增加了約1.02%。
According to the daily trading channel model, Bitcoin is currently running above the red and green protection channels, indicating that the medium-term trend is still strong. The sentiment index is also slowly recovering with the rise in the price of the currency, indicating that market confidence is recovering.
根據日常交易渠道模型,比特幣目前正在高於紅色和綠色保護渠道上方,這表明中期趨勢仍然很強。情緒指數也隨著貨幣價格上漲的上漲而緩慢恢復,表明市場信心正在恢復。
From the 1-hour period candlestick chart, the trading model monitoring shows that the short-term currency price is running above the white long and short lines, and the sentiment indicator is at a high level, which is about to form a top divergence pattern. This means that the probability of intensified market volatility in the short term is high, and there may be a trend of stepping back to 108,720 points (intraday low). It is necessary to focus on whether this low point will be broken.
從1小時的燭台圖表中,交易模型監視表明,短期貨幣價格在白色長和短線上方運行,情感指標處於高水平,這將形成最高的差異模式。這意味著,短期內市場波動的概率很高,並且可能會有回到108,720點的趨勢(盤中低)。有必要專注於該低點是否會被打破。
The author believes that through the 1-hour K-line data analysis, many indicators are in the high zone, and the probability of intraday fluctuations is increasing.
作者認為,通過1小時的K線數據分析,許多指標處於高區域,並且盤中波動的可能性正在增加。
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