專家預測，未來十年比特幣（BTC）的表現可能會超越英偉達（NVDA）

鑑於英偉達（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）在過去十年中令人印象深刻的表現，金融和加密貨幣專家現在預計將發生重大轉變，並預測這家科技巨頭在未來十年中超越比特幣（BTC）的「機會幾乎為零」。

Financial and cryptocurrency experts now anticipate a significant shift in the upcoming decade, predicting that tech giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has “near zero chance” of outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) in the next 10 years.

金融和加密貨幣專家現在預計未來十年將發生重大轉變，並預測科技巨頭英偉達（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）在未來 10 年內超越比特幣（BTC）的「機會幾乎為零」。

This forecast is part of a wider discussion on the evolving dynamics between traditional high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia and growing digital currencies such as Bitcoin.

這項預測是關於英偉達等傳統高成長科技股與比特幣等不斷增長的數位貨幣之間動態演變的更廣泛討論的一部分。

Nvidia, a leader in the semiconductor industry, recently celebrated a remarkable milestone with its stock price soaring following the latest earnings report. This surge contributed to an overall return of 21,558% from May 2014 to May 2024, a growth significantly fueled by the company’s pioneering efforts in AI and gaming technologies.

半導體產業的領導者英偉達最近慶祝了一個非凡的里程碑，在最新的財報發布後，股價飆升。從 2014 年 5 月到 2024 年 5 月，這一激增使得整體回報率達到 21,558%，這一增長主要得益於該公司在人工智慧和遊戲技術方面的開創性努力。

An X post from The Kobeissi Letter on May 25 highlighted this extraordinary performance:

5 月 25 日，《Kobeissi Letter》的一篇 X 貼文強調了這一非凡的表現：

“$NVDA has officially joined the exclusive club of 250,000%+ in all-time returns. $10,000 invested in Nvidia in 1999 is worth $25.3 million today.”

「$NVDA 已正式加入歷史回報率超過 250,000% 的專屬俱樂部。 1999 年向 Nvidia 投資的 10,000 美元如今價值 2530 萬美元。

However, despite these impressive gains, Bitcoin has emerged as a formidable competitor. It returned 13,048% over the same period, with recent trends suggesting even greater potential.

然而，儘管取得了這些令人印象深刻的收益，比特幣已成為一個強大的競爭對手。同期回報率為 13,048%，最近的趨勢表明潛力更大。

Notably, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index rose to 0.46 last week, marking the highest level since late August. This reflects Bitcoin’s increasing alignment with mainstream financial markets, a trend further evidenced by its comparison with high-growth tech stocks.

值得注意的是，比特幣與納斯達克100指數之間的90天相關係數上周升至0.46，創下8月下旬以來的最高水準。這反映出比特幣與主流金融市場越來越一致，與高成長科技股的比較進一步證明了這個趨勢。

Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, and Lyn Alden, a noted investment strategist, expressed skepticism about Nvidia’s capacity to replicate its past decade’s success. They highlight Bitcoin’s advantages, such as its integration into mainstream financial products, including the recently approved Bitcoin ETFs, and its potential to outpace traditional assets due to its decentralized nature and extensive network effects.

Swan Bitcoin 執行長 Cory Klippsten 和著名投資策略師 Lyn Alden 對 Nvidia 複製過去十年成功的能力表示懷疑。他們強調了比特幣的優勢，例如它與主流金融產品的整合，包括最近批准的比特幣 ETF，以及由於其去中心化性質和廣泛的網路效應而超越傳統資產的潛力。

Recent performance and market trends

近期業績和市場趨勢

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10 was a significant milestone that further legitimized Bitcoin as a mainstream investment option, boosting its returns to 31.7% since then. This slight edge over Nvidia's 30.2% in the same period underscores growing investor confidence in Bitcoin, aligning it with the growth trajectories typically associated with high-growth tech stocks.

1 月 10 日現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准是一個重要的里程碑，進一步使比特幣作為主流投資選擇合法化，自此將其回報率提高至 31.7%。這略高於英偉達同期 30.2% 的優勢，突顯了投資者對比特幣的信心不斷增強，使其與高成長科技股通常相關的成長軌跡保持一致。

Daniel Sempere Pico and Sina from 21st.capital commented on the potential for Bitcoin’s financial networks and widespread adoption to drive more sustainable long-term growth compared to Nvidia’s AI-driven advancements. They argue that while Nvidia's innovations in AI are impactful, the broader applications of Bitcoin in global financial systems present a more compelling investment narrative, suggesting that the future of investment may tilt increasingly towards digital currencies over traditional tech giants.

來自 21st.capital 的 Daniel Sempere Pico 和新浪評論了比特幣金融網絡的潛力及其廣泛採用，與英偉達人工智能驅動的進步相比，可以推動更可持續的長期增長。他們認為，雖然英偉達在人工智慧方面的創新具有影響力，但比特幣在全球金融體系中的更廣泛應用呈現出更引人注目的投資敘事，這表明未來的投資可能會越來越傾向於數字貨幣，而不是傳統科技巨頭。

Nvidia and BTC analysis: A comparative look at market performance

Nvidia 與 BTC 分析：市場表現比較

From January 1, 2024, to May 25, 2024, BTC-USD and NVIDIA demonstrated distinct trading patterns and growth trajectories, reflecting their unique market positions and investor sentiments.

從2024年1月1日到2024年5月25日，BTC-USD和NVIDIA表現出了不同的交易模式和成長軌跡，反映了它們獨特的市場地位和投資者情緒。

Bitcoin exhibited significant volatility, with prices ranging from approximately $39,450 to $73,750, leading to a 63% YTD increase. This volatility, highlighted by frequent relative strength index (RSI) signals of overvaluation and undervaluation, underscores the speculative nature of Bitcoin, influenced by diverse investor behaviors and market dynamics.

比特幣表現出巨大的波動性，價格從約 39,450 美元到 73,750 美元不等，年初至今上漲了 63%。這種波動性，以頻繁的相對強度指數（RSI）高估和低估訊號為突出，凸顯了比特幣的投機性質，受到不同投資者行為和市場動態的影響。

In contrast, NVIDIA displayed strong growth, with its stock price increasing from $475 to $1,064, marking a YTD rise of about 115%. The stability in NVIDIA's RSI suggests consistent market sentiment and fewer fluctuations attributed to its ongoing advancements in AI and the semiconductor sectors, which are vital for technological innovation and impact across various industries.

相比之下，英偉達表現強勁，股價從 475 美元上漲至 1,064 美元，年初至今上漲約 115%。 NVIDIA RSI 的穩定性表明，由於其在人工智慧和半導體領域的持續進步，市場情緒一致且波動較小，這對於各行業的技術創新和影響至關重要。

As Bitcoin increasingly competes with major tech stocks, its transformative role in the investment landscape is becoming more pronounced. With broader adoption and alignment with financial markets, digital currencies are poised to dominate future growth, potentially overshadowing even the most established tech giants.

隨著比特幣與主要科技股的競爭日益激烈，其在投資領域的變革作用變得越來越明顯。隨著數位貨幣得到更廣泛的採用並與金融市場保持一致，它有望主導未來的成長，甚至有可能讓最成熟的科技巨頭黯然失色。