比特幣（BTC）市場調整：鏈上指標揭示了牛市週期的哪些內容

比特幣市場在最近飆升至 108,000 美元以上後，最近幾週經歷了一個調整階段。這種下跌導致投資人越來越擔心市場是否正在進入漫長的冷靜期，或者這次調整是否意味著牛市週期的結束。

Bitcoin market has been experiencing a phase of correction in recent weeks following its recent surge beyond $108,000. This decline has led to growing concerns among investors about whether the market is entering a prolonged cooling-off period or if this correction signifies the end of the bull cycle.

比特幣市場在最近飆升至 108,000 美元以上後，最近幾週經歷了一個調整階段。這種下跌導致投資人越來越擔心市場是否正在進入漫長的冷靜期，或者這次調整是否意味著牛市週期的結束。

However, historically, such phases have been common in Bitcoin’s market cycles, often followed by periods of renewed upward momentum. Analysts are now turning to key on-chain metrics to provide insights into the current phase and its implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

然而，從歷史上看，這種階段在比特幣的市場週期中很常見，隨後往往會出現新的上升勢頭。分析師現在正在轉向關鍵的鏈上指標，以深入了解當前階段及其對比特幣價格軌跡的影響。

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly Of Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action, According To On-Chain Analysis

根據鏈上分析，比特幣近期價格走勢的好、壞、醜陋

The market remains within a broader bull cycle, according to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Avocado Onchain. Using on-chain indicators such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Miner Position Index (MPI), and funding rates, the analyst outlined the current state of Bitcoin.

根據 CryptoQuant 分析師 Avocado Onchain 最近的分析，市場仍處於更廣泛的牛市週期內。使用調整後支出產出利潤率（SOPR）、礦工頭寸指數（MPI）和融資利率等鏈上指標，分析師概述了比特幣的當前狀態。

“Bitcoin is still in a bull market judging by the key on-chain indicators,” the analyst stated.

「從關鍵的鏈上指標來看，比特幣仍處於牛市，」該分析師表示。

The SOPR (7-day Simple Moving Average) remains above 1 but is trending downward, indicating reduced profit margins for sellers. This metric often acts as an early signal of market sentiment shifts, with drops below 1 historically triggering rebounds as selling pressure subsides.

SOPR（7 天簡單移動平均線）仍高於 1，但呈下降趨勢，顯示賣家的利潤率下降。此指標通常是市場情緒轉變的早期訊號，歷史上當賣壓消退時，跌破 1 會引發反彈。

“SOPR is still trending down, indicating lower seller margins. Drops below 1 usually lead to market recoveries as selling pressure gets absorbed.”

「SOPR 仍呈下降趨勢，顯示賣家利潤率較低。隨著拋售壓力被吸收，跌破 1 通常會導致市場復甦。

The report further analyzed Bitcoin’s Miner Position Index (MPI). This index measures miner behavior, particularly their tendency to sell Bitcoin in anticipation of significant market events, such as halving cycles or peak price levels.

該報告進一步分析了比特幣的礦工部位指數（MPI）。該指數衡量礦工的行為，特別是他們在預期重大市場事件（例如減半週期或峰值價格水平）時出售比特幣的傾向。

“Miners are still not selling into the market heavily. Large mining operations tend to sell in smaller intervals to cover operational costs, even in bull markets. However, the MPI shows no large outflows from miners to exchanges.”

「礦商仍未大量向市場拋售。即使在多頭市場中，大型採礦業務往往會以較小的間隔出售以彌補營運成本。然而，MPI 顯示沒有大量資金從礦工流向交易所。

Avocado added that this indicates confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin, even as short-term volatility persists.

酪梨補充說，這表明即使短期波動持續存在，人們仍然對比特幣的長期價值充滿信心。

Another important indicator highlighted by the CryptoQuant analyst is total network fees, measured using a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This metric reflects transaction activity and overall on-chain engagement.

CryptoQuant 分析師強調的另一個重要指標是總網路費用，使用 7 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 來衡量。此指標反映了交易活動和整體鏈上參與度。

“Transaction activity seems to be cooling off for now. The 7-day SMA of total network fees is down significantly from the recent highs. Such periods of lower transaction activity have historically preceded periods of renewed bullish momentum, especially when other indicators also support this trend.”

「交易活動目前似乎正在降溫。網路總費用的 7 天 SMA 較近期高點大幅下降。從歷史上看，這種交易活動較低的時期先於新的看漲勢頭時期，特別是當其他指標也支持這一趨勢時。

Finally, the analysis touches upon Bitcoin funding rates and their implications for market sentiment and short-term price movements.

最後，分析涉及比特幣融資利率及其對市場情緒和短期價格走勢的影響。

“Funding rates have shown drops from recent highs. These drops usually indicate increasing pessimism among short-term traders or market participants engaging in leverage. Historically, during bull cycles, sharp drops in funding rates have been followed by short-term market recoveries as pessimism reaches an extreme point and buyers return to the market.”

「融資利率已從近期高點下降。這些下跌通常表明短期交易者或參與槓桿的市場參與者的悲觀情緒日益增加。從歷史上看，在牛市週期中，隨著悲觀情緒達到極點，買家重返市場，融資利率急劇下降後會出現短期市場復甦。

The recent drops in funding rates, combined with other on-chain indicators, could present buying opportunities for long-term investors, especially during periods of heightened market pessimism, as suggested by the analysis.

如分析所示，近期融資利率的下降，加上其他鏈上指標，可能為長期投資者帶來買入機會，尤其是在市場悲觀情緒加劇期間。