比特幣（BTC）公牛運行可能即將結束，三個發展表明

自2023年初以來，比特幣（BTC）粉刷了經典的樓梯公牛奔跑，其特徵是價格上漲，其次是時期

Bitcoin (BTC) has consolidated within a bullish stairstep pattern since early 2023, setting the stage for a bull breakout from the $20,000 bull run. However, three key developments suggest that BTC may face difficulties in continuing its stairstep bull run towards $120,000.

自2023年初以來，比特幣（BTC）已在看漲的樓梯模式中鞏固，為20,000美元的公牛跑步奠定了基礎。但是，三個關鍵的發展表明，BTC可能會在繼續其階梯公牛往返12萬美元的情況下面臨困難。

Bitcoin price hints at a 2021-like topping pattern as it grinds higher

比特幣的價格暗示了2021年式的澆頭圖案，因為它磨碎了

Bitcoin price has been grinding out a stairstep bull run since early 2023, leaving behind three consolidation ranges on the 14-week chart. Each breakout from the consolidation has led to a new leg up in the rally from $20,000.

自2023年初以來，比特幣的價格一直在打磨樓梯牛的跑步，在14週的榜單上留下了三個合併範圍。合併中的每一次突破都導致拉力賽的新腿從20,000美元開始。

Now, as BTC price attempts to rally towards $120,000, three macro and technical developments hint at a possible slowdown in the stairstep pattern.

現在，隨著BTC的價格試圖集結到120,000美元，三個宏觀和技術發展暗示了階段模式可能會放緩。

Tightening USD liquidity may hinder risk asset performance

收緊美元流動性可能會阻礙風險資產績效

One thing that any asset class, not just crypto, typically dislikes is the tightening of fiat liquidity, especially the global reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar (USD). To the dismay of BTC bulls, the dollar liquidity is tightening due to several factors, as Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, noted on Yahoo Finance Live.

任何資產類別（不僅是加密貨幣）通常不喜歡的一件事是，菲亞特流動性的收緊，尤其是全球儲備貨幣，美元（美元）。令BTC公牛感到沮喪的是，由於Yahoo Finance Live指出，Maelstrom的首席投資官Arthur Hayes表示，美元的流動性正在收緊。

"The traders on the floor are saying that the liquidity is drying up. We're seeing this in the Treasury General Account, which is the U.S. government's checking account at the Federal Reserve."

“地板上的交易者說流動性正在枯竭。我們在美國政府在美聯儲的支票帳戶中看到了這一點。”

Notably, the USD cash balance held in the Treasury General Account (TGA) has increased by $176 billion in four weeks, according to data source MacroMicro.

根據數據源Macromicro的數據，值得注意的是，在國庫總帳戶（TGA）中持有的美元現金餘額增加了1760億美元。

After the U.S. hit its self-imposed debt limit of $36 trillion last month, markets hoped that the Treasury would run down the TGA balance as part of extraordinary measures to keep the government functioning, inadvertently enhancing liquidity in the economy and markets.

在美國上個月達到36萬億美元的自我債務限額之後，市場希望財政部將降低TGA餘額，這是非凡措施的一部分，以保持政府運作，無意中提高經濟和市場的流動性。

"We're looking at a scenario where key liquidity sources are drying up or being more tightly controlled. This could lead to a slowdown in economic activity, higher borrowing costs, and potentially a more challenging environment for risk assets, including crypto," Anddy Lian, thought leader and intergovernmental blockchain expert, told Cointelegraph.

“我們正在尋找一種場景，關鍵流動性來源正在枯竭或受到更嚴格的控制。這可能導致經濟活動放緩，較高的借貸成本以及在內的風險資產的更具挑戰性的環境，包括加密貨幣，” Anddy”思想領袖和政府間區塊鏈專家Lian告訴Cointelegraph。

Trump administration to 'evaluate' strategic BTC reserve, dulling crypto anticipation

特朗普政府“評估”戰略BTC儲備，乏味的加密貨幣期望

Another development that has fallen short of crypto investors' expectations is the Trump administration's approach to establishing a strategic BTC reserve. It was a significant catalyst behind BTC's surge from $70,000 to over $100,000.

未達到加密投資者期望的另一個發展是特朗普政府建立戰略性BTC儲備的方法。這是BTC激增的重大催化劑，從70,000美元至100,000美元以上。

However, the administration seems to be taking a more cautious approach, opting to "evaluate" the feasibility of creating such a reserve. It's a shift from Trump's typical swiftness in addressing campaign promises.

但是，政府似乎採取了更加謹慎的態度，選擇“評估”創建這樣的儲備的可行性。這是特朗普在解決競選承諾方面的典型迅速發展的轉變。

"Wait, Trump said he would do a $BTC Reserve, not promise to 'evaluate it.' Evaluate/Study is what Washington does when they don't want to do something," Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, LLC, said in a recent commentary.

“等等，特朗普說，他會做一個$ BTC的儲備，不承諾'評估'。 Bianco Research，LLC總裁兼宏觀策略師吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）在最近的一份評論中說。

BTC price dropped from over $100,000 to $96,000 during the overnight trade after Trump's crypto Czar told CNBC that a top agenda item for his new task force is evaluating the feasibility of a bitcoin reserve.

在特朗普的加密沙皇告訴CNBC之後，BTC的價格從超過100,000美元降至96,000美元，在隔夜交易中，他的新工作隊的最高議程項目正在評估比特幣儲備的可行性。

Reappearance of a 2021 topping pattern in BTC price technicals

BTC價格技術中的2021年澆頭模式的重新出現

Finally, those looking at technical charts to gauge the next move might want to pull up the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) on their screens.

最後，那些看衡量下一步行動的技術圖表的人可能希望在屏幕上拉起14週的相對強度指數（RSI）。

That's because the oscillator has recently diverged bearishly in a move that marked the 2021 top. A bearish RSI divergence contradicts the higher high in prices, signaling a slowdown in the bullish momentum.

那是因為振盪器最近以佔據標誌著2021頂部的舉動偏差。看跌的RSI差異與價格較高相矛盾，這表明看漲勢頭的勢頭放緩。

A closer look at the 14-week RSI reveals that the oscillator formed a lower high relative to its December peak, diverging bearishly from the continued price uptrend into 2024. This setup is similar to the one that preceded the 2021 top.

仔細觀察14週的RSI表明，相對於12月的峰值，振盪器形成較低的高度，與持續價格上漲到2024年相差。這種設置類似於2021年代之前的設置。

The negative setup would be invalidated should the RSI cross above the falling trendline, representing the divergence, indicating a renewed bullish momentum.

如果RSI交叉在下降趨勢線以上，代表分歧的情況下，負面設置將無效，表明看漲的勢頭。