比特幣底部信號再次閃爍，因為採礦成本度量預測集會

羅伯特·布雷德洛夫（Robert Breedlove）是著名的“自由極端主義者”，也是播客“什麼是錢？”的主持人，最近分享了見解，暗示比特幣可能處於市場底部或附近。

Robert Breedlove, a noted “Freedom Maximalist” and host of the podcast “What is Money?”, recently shared insights suggesting that Bitcoin may be at or near a market bottom.

羅伯特·布雷德洛夫（Robert Breedlove）是著名的“自由極端主義者”，也是播客“什麼是錢？”的主持人，最近分享了見解，暗示比特幣可能處於市場底部或附近。

Drawing on data from industry analysts and historical trends, Breedlove highlighted a key metric known as the Average Miner Cost of Production, which has historically timed major Bitcoin reversals.

Breedlove借鑒了行業分析師和歷史趨勢的數據，突出了一個關鍵指標，稱為平均礦工生產成本，歷史上一直定時進行主要比特幣逆轉。

Breedlove further pointed out that Bitcoin is already up 25% since its April 9th low, and with indicators such as the industry average cost to mine a Bitcoin converging, there are signs that a bullish reversal may be unfolding. According to data aggregated by the Blockware team, this metric has successfully signaled each of the last six Bitcoin bottoms: April 2016, December 2018, March 2020, September 2020, November 2022, and September 2024.

Breedlove進一步指出，比特幣自4月9日的低點以來已經增長了25％，並且由於行業平均挖掘比特幣融合的指標，有跡象表明看漲逆轉可能正在發生。根據Blockware團隊匯總的數據，該指標已成功地發出了最後六個比特幣底部的信號：2016年4月，2018年12月，2020年3月，2020年9月，2022年11月，2022年和2024年9月。

The rationale behind this indicator is derived from the economics of mining. In rational markets, assets typically do not trade below their cost of production. For Bitcoin, this breakeven point varies among miners due to factors such as machine efficiency, electricity costs, and operational uptime. However, a reliable average can be gleaned from data provided by industry analysts.

該指標背後的理由源自採礦經濟學。在理性市場中，資產通常不會低於其生產成本。對於比特幣而言，由於機器效率，電力成本和運營正常運行時間等因素，礦工的盈虧平衡點會有所不同。但是，可以從行業分析師提供的數據中收集可靠的平均值。

A chart shared by Blockware vividly demonstrates how the price of Bitcoin has historically followed the trajectory of the average miner breakeven cost. As current metrics again converge, Breedlove suggests that Bitcoin is poised for another significant rally.

Blockware分享的圖表生動地展示了比特幣的價格如何遵循平均礦工收支平衡成本的軌跡。當前指標再次融合時，Breedlove建議比特幣有望參加另一個重要的集會。

While Breedlove usually refrains from commenting on short-term price action, the convergence of historical accuracy and current market behavior makes this signal particularly noteworthy. For those interested in tracking market cycles in greater detail, this may be a strong indication that a new upward phase for Bitcoin is unfolding.

儘管Breedlove通常避免對短期價格行動發表評論，但歷史準確性和當前市場行為的融合使該信號特別值得注意。對於那些有興趣更詳細地跟踪市場週期的人來說，這可能表明比特幣的新階段正在展開。