比特幣的熊市信號：崩潰即將到來嗎？

比特幣跌破關鍵水平，引發熊市擔憂。這是加密貨幣冬天的開始嗎？

Bitcoin's Bear Signal: Is a Collapse Incoming?

比特幣的熊市信號：崩潰即將到來嗎？

Bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000 has sparked concerns about a potential bear market. Is this just a temporary setback, or are we staring down the barrel of a crypto collapse?

比特幣最近跌破 10 萬美元，引發了人們對潛在熊市的擔憂。這只是暫時的挫折，還是我們正在盯著加密貨幣崩潰的桶？

The 365-Day Moving Average: A Line in the Sand

365 天移動平均線：沙中線

According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's drop below its 365-day Moving Average (MA) is a critical bear signal. Historically, this level has acted as a confirmation of bear market starts, as seen in 2022. Moreno warns that Bitcoin needs to quickly reclaim the $102,000 level to mitigate further risk.

CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 表示，比特幣跌破 365 天移動平均線（MA）是一個關鍵的看跌信號。從歷史上看，這一水平一直是熊市開始的確認，正如 2022 年所見。莫雷諾警告說，比特幣需要迅速收復 102,000 美元的水平，以減輕進一步的風險。

Liquidation Tsunami and Market Sentiment

清算海嘯和市場情緒

The recent price drop triggered a massive liquidation event, wiping out over $2 billion in the last 24 hours. While some traders are confidently buying the dip, on-chain analytics firm Santiment notes a sharp increase in bearish social media commentary on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

最近的價格下跌引發了大規模的清算事件，在過去 24 小時內蒸發了超過 20 億美元。儘管一些交易員信心十足地逢低買入，但鏈上分析公司 Santiment 指出，社交媒體上對比特幣和以太坊的悲觀評論急劇增加。

Altcoins Feeling the Pressure

山寨幣感受到壓力

The bearish sentiment isn't limited to Bitcoin. XRP, despite outperforming many other cryptocurrencies in the recent bull market, has triggered a bearish crossover of the LMACD indicator on the monthly timeframe. Historically, this signal has preceded significant price drops for XRP.

看跌情緒不僅限於比特幣。儘管 XRP 在最近的牛市中表現優於許多其他加密貨幣，但在月度時間範圍內引發了 LMACD 指標的看跌交叉。從歷史上看，這一信號先於 XRP 價格大幅下跌。

Analyst Outlook: A Bumpy Road Ahead

分析師展望：未來之路崎嶇不平

Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, anticipates Bitcoin trading within a $94,000–$118,000 range in the near term, reflecting subdued ETF inflows and a measured recovery. While there's potential for recovery, the market remains cautious.

Bitget Wallet 研究分析師 Lacie 張 預計，短期內比特幣交易價格將在 94,000 美元至 118,000 美元之間，反映出 ETF 資金流入減少和復蘇緩慢。儘管存在復蘇潛力，但市場仍保持謹慎。

So, Collapse Incoming?

那麼，崩潰即將來臨？

Whether or not this bear signal will lead to a full-blown collapse remains to be seen. The market is volatile, and anything can happen. Keep an eye on that 365-day MA! Until then, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! It might be a wild ride!

這一看跌信號是否會導致全面崩盤還有待觀察。市場瞬息萬變，任何事情都有可能發生。密切關注 365 天的移動平均線！在那之前，係好安全帶，加密貨幣愛好者！這可能是一次瘋狂的旅程！