伯恩斯坦（Bernstein

在一個極端預測不再引起轟動的市場中，伯恩斯坦剛剛引起了海浪。

Asset management firm Bernstein, known for its $800 billion assets under management, has made a surprising new prediction: bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2023.

資產管理公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）以其管理的8000億美元資產而聞名，他做出了令人驚訝的新預測：到2023年底，比特幣可能達到200,000美元。

What’s even more surprising is that this price target is described as “conservative” by Bernstein’s own analysts. This bold statement is made at a time when the market is anticipating a bitcoin price closer to $100,000, and institutions are still deploying relatively small amounts into crypto.

更令人驚訝的是，伯恩斯坦自己的分析師將這個價格目標描述為“保守”。這種大膽的聲明是在市場預計比特幣價格接近100,000美元的時候發表的，機構仍將相對較少的數量部署到加密貨幣中。

So how does Bernstein justify such a bullish outlook, especially in an overarching market climate that is anything but optimistic?

那麼，伯恩斯坦如何證明這種看漲的前景是合理的，尤其是在總體市場氛圍中，這只是樂觀的呢？

Why does Bernstein speak of a ‘conservative scenario’ ?

伯恩斯坦為什麼要談論“保守的場景”？

The new bitcoin price prediction from asset management firm Bernstein will certainly make a splash. Especially in today’s market, where extreme price targets no longer seem to faze anyone.

資產管理公司伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的新比特幣價格預測肯定會引起轟動。尤其是在當今市場，極端價格目標似乎不再使任何人感到震驚。

Indeed, as the firm itself points out, its analysts are describing this anticipation as “conservative.”

確實，正如公司本身所指出的那樣，其分析師將這種期望描述為“保守”。

This statement is made mainly in an analysis of the current dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now total nearly $120 billion in assets under management.

該聲明主要是在分析現有比特幣ETF的動態的過程中，該動態目前總計近1,200億美元的管理資產。

Among them, BlackRock’s flagship product, IBIT, is highlighted for having become the ETF that reached $70 billion AUM fastest in the industry’s history.

其中，貝萊德（Blackrock）的旗艦產品IBIT因成為該行業歷史上最快達到700億美元AUM的ETF而被強調。

This level of adoption is viewed by Bernstein as a structural shift favoring bitcoin in particular, and institutional investment in general.

伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）將這種採用水平視為一種尤其是比特幣的結構性轉變，總體上是機構投資。

In detail, Bernstein lists several elements supporting its bullish thesis :

詳細說明，伯恩斯坦列出了支持其看漲論文的幾個要素：

• Despite a recent slowdown, bitcoin’s price has tripled since the 2021 bull market, and the asset is now recognized as a dominant force in the crypto sphere.

•儘管最近有所放緩，但比特幣的價格自2021年牛市以來的價格增加了兩倍，現在該資產被認為是加密球體中的主要力量。

• This bull market is unfolding in a macroeconomic context that is anything but optimistic, with high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates, and a looming threat of recession.

•在宏觀經濟環境中，這個牛市正在發展，這對宏觀經濟的態度卻是樂觀的，高通貨膨脹，利率迅速上升以及迫在眉睫的衰退威脅。

• trứng,끼여넣는대는시간에따라챗GPT는다음과같은내용을생성합니다.nalysis, Bernstein sees an acceleration in institutional activity towards crypto in 2024, presenting a strong setup for bitcoin to continue its bull market.

•trứng，插入與聊天GPT隨著時間的流逝相同的內容。伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）在2024年看到了對加密貨幣的機構活動的帳戶，為比特幣提供了強大的設置，以繼續其牛市。

All these signals, which are already remarkable, form according to Bernstein the minimal basis for a potentially much higher valuation.

根據伯恩斯坦（Bernstein），所有這些信號已經很顯著，這可能是估值更高的最低基礎。

Within this framework, their projection of $200,000 is presented not as a maximal ambition, but as a realistic floor given the current dynamics.

在此框架內，他們的20萬美元投影不是作為最大的野心，而是鑑於當前的動態為現實的地面。

Underlying signals : blockchain beyond bitcoin

基礎信號：比特幣以外的區塊鏈

Beyond bitcoin’s own dynamics, Bernstein highlights a deeper transformation: the rise of tokenized financial applications on public blockchains.

除了比特幣自己的動態外，伯恩斯坦還強調了更深入的轉變：公共區塊鏈上的標記金融應用的興起。

In their note, the analysts state that “if real companies and institutional investors innovate on the blockchain, this mechanically confers value to the networks hosting them.”

在他們的指出中，分析師指出：“如果真正的公司和機構投資者在區塊鏈上進行創新，那麼這將機械地賦予託管網絡的價值。”

It is in this context that blockchains like Ethereum or Solana are beginning to attract attention, not merely for their performance as assets, but for their role as critical infrastructures. Stablecoins, increasingly integrated into global financial flows, also contribute to this ecosystem’s rise.

正是在這種情況下，像以太坊或索拉納這樣的區塊鏈開始引起關注，而不僅僅是因為它們作為資產的績效，而是因為它們作為關鍵基礎設施的作用。 Stablecoins越來越多地整合到全球金融流程中，也有助於該生態系統的增長。

In other words, Bernstein’s scenario does not rely solely on a hypothetical BTC surge fueled by speculation. It rests on a structural evolution: that of a maturing crypto ecosystem, with real use cases, interoperable tokenized applications, and demand coming no longer only from retail investors.

換句話說，伯恩斯坦的場景不僅依賴於被猜測推動的假設BTC激增。它取決於結構性的進化：具有實際用例，可互操作的代幣應用程序的成熟加密生態系統的發展，並且需求不再僅來自零售投資者。

This often less visible shift could explain why analysts consider their prediction to be cautious: bitcoin’s rise may be just the tip of the iceberg in a global shift toward decentralized finance.

這種往往不太明顯的轉變可以解釋為什麼分析師認為他們的預測是謹慎的：比特幣的崛起可能只是冰山一角，在全球向分散財務的轉變中。

From this perspective, the $200,000 mentioned is not just a price target but reflects a comprehensive repositioning of bitcoin in the digital economy. If fundamentals continue to align (institutional adoption, public network innovation, political integration), then traditionally “extreme” valuation levels could become the new norm.

從這個角度來看，提到的200,000美元不僅是價格目標，而且反映了比特幣在數字經濟中的全面重新定位。如果基本面繼續保持一致（機構採用，公共網絡創新，政治融合），那麼傳統上“極端”的估值水平可能會成為新的規範。