我們還沒有處於山寨幣牛市之中，甚至還沒有接近：分析師

分析師 Miles Deutscher 表示，我們目前並未處於山寨幣牛市之中，甚至還沒有接近牛市。如果您正在這個循環中掙扎，那麼您並不孤單。

Miles Deutscher recently analyzed the crypto market data, revealing some surprising truths about the current market state. He stated that we are not currently in an altcoin bull run.

Miles Deutscher 最近分析了加密貨幣市場數據，揭示了有關當前市場狀況的一些令人驚訝的事實。他表示，我們目前並未處於山寨幣牛市。

At first glance, one might expect euphoric crypto sentiment with Bitcoin ($BTC) nearing all-time highs (ATHs), meme coins exploding, and celebrities promoting crypto again. However, the reality is different. Most retail investors don’t hold large amounts of Bitcoin; they are invested in altcoins, which have significantly underperformed this cycle.

乍一看，人們可能會期待比特幣（$BTC）接近歷史高點（ATH）、迷因幣爆炸以及名人再次推廣加密貨幣的欣快加密情緒。然而，現實卻有所不同。大多數散戶並不持有大量比特幣；他們投資於山寨幣，而山寨幣的表現明顯低於本週期。

The OTHERS/BTC ratio, which measures the total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 coins, is now lower than it was in October 2023 (8 months ago). This paints a clear picture of the current market situation. Since the fall of FTX, only 8 coins have surpassed their previous ATHs compared to Bitcoin. Altcoins (TOTAL3) are still 70% away from their previous highs, while Bitcoin is nearing its ATH.

OTHERS/BTC 比率衡量的是不包括前 10 名代幣的加密貨幣總市值，目前低於 2023 年 10 月（8 個月前）。這清楚地描繪了當前的市場狀況。自 FTX 垮台以來，與比特幣相比，只有 8 個幣種超越了先前的 ATH。山寨幣 (TOTAL3) 距離先前的高點仍有 70% 的距離，而比特幣則接近其最高點。

Miles wrote on X, “This has been a Bitcoin-narrative led cycle. The narrative that propelled BTC to ATHs was the spot ETF narrative and the strong corresponding inflows. Although BTC and altcoins are interlinked, there hasn’t been a strong broader market catalyst yet, like BTC has had.

邁爾斯在 X 上寫道：「這是一個以比特幣敘事為主導的周期。將 BTC 推向 ATH 的因素是現貨 ETF 的因素以及相應的強勁資金流入。儘管比特幣和山寨幣是相互關聯的，但還沒有像比特幣那樣強大的更廣泛的市場催化劑。

Since Bitcoin started its strong rise from $27k in October, altcoins haven’t seen a sustained rally. The altcoin market phases over the last three quarters show this has been a Bitcoin-narrative led cycle, driven by the spot ETF narrative and strong inflows.

自 10 月比特幣從 2.7 萬美元開始強勁上漲以來，山寨幣並未持續上漲。過去三個季度的山寨幣市場階段表明，這是一個由比特幣敘事主導的周期，由現貨 ETF 敘事和強勁資金流入推動。

We are NOT in an altcoin bull run.

我們還沒有處於山寨幣牛市之中。

Not even close.

差遠了。

If you're struggling this cycle, you're not alone.

如果您正在這個週期中苦苦掙扎，那麼您並不孤單。

?: I just dug through the data which reveals some shocking truths about the current state of the market.

?：我剛剛挖掘了一些數據，這些數據揭示了有關當前市場狀況的一些令人震驚的事實。

(it also holds the key as to when things could turn around).

（它也掌握著事情何時能夠扭轉的關鍵）。

?

?

Although Bitcoin and altcoins are interlinked, altcoins haven’t had a significant broader market catalyst like Bitcoin. Specific narratives, such as memes, AI, and real-world assets (RWA), have outperformed, with major altcoins lagging behind. If you haven’t been well-capitalized in these sectors, you’ve likely felt FOMO and the strong temptation to rebalance your portfolio.

儘管比特幣和山寨幣是相互關聯的，但山寨幣並沒有像比特幣那樣具有更廣泛的市場催化劑。迷因、人工智慧和現實世界資產（RWA）等特定敘事表現出色，而主要山寨幣則落後。如果您在這些領域的資本不足，您可能會感到害怕錯過機會以及重新平衡投資組合的強烈誘惑。

Also Read : Bitcoin on Edge: Crypto Rating Firm Predicts Market Turbulence Ahead of CPI Release

另請閱讀：比特幣邊緣：加密貨幣評級公司預測 CPI 發布前市場動盪