The odds of India invading Pakistan rose to 41% on crypto betting platform Polymarket today as Pakistan’s defence minister declared military incursion from India was “imminent.”

The odds of India invading Pakistan rose to 41% on crypto betting platform Polymarket today as Pakistan’s defence minister declared military incursion from India was “imminent.”

Reuters reported earlier today that Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, claimed: “We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now.”

On Polymarket, the chances of the invasion subsequently shot up to 41%. It currently stands at around 37%.

Last week, in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir, a gunman shot 26 tourists, an incident that India claims was the work of militants supported by Pakistan. However, it hasn’t named the group.

Since then, India has reportedly demolished the houses of alleged militants and detained 1,500 people in the region. Pakistan denies any role in the attack and, along with China, has called for a “neutral investigation” into the matter.

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Polymarket claims the bet will be resolved if “India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between April 23 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.”

The platform says its resolution will be based on “official confirmation” from India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or other permanent UN Security Council members, adding that “a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.”

It’s worth noting the “chance” percentage in this market is based on binary options gamblers placing bets on whether or not UMA token holders would attest to an Indian invasion of Pakistan before July.

Despite the rising threat of war, Pakistan has been the center of a recent crypto push. Earlier today, Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial signed a “memorandum of understanding” with the country’s national crypto council.

Not only that, Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, became a crypto advisor for the Pakistan Crypto Council this month.