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In the realm of crypto markets, where bold predictions are routinely made and, more importantly, funded, usually through playful option trades that offer relatively small-cost but outsized upside, a new all-time high (ATH) price prediction has emerged, and it's garnering attention.
As of Monday, the Deribit-listed $300,000 strike bitcoin (BTC) call expiring on June 26 had over 5,000 contracts active, boasting a notional open interest of $484 million, rendering it the second-most popular option bet in the crucial June expiry. It's lagging behind the $110K call, which had 16,000 contracts and $879 million in notional open interest at press time.
For context, Deribit is the world's leading crypto options exchange, claiming over 75% of the global options activity. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 BTC.
The June quarterlies, specifically the June 26 expiry, are currently driving market activity and volatility, with traders maneuvering to hedge positions, lock in gains, or speculate on the next price moves.
"Perhaps, people like buying lottery tickets. As evidenced by the call skew, there are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge," Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at crypto market maker GSR, said, explaining the high open interest in the so-called out-of-the-money (OTM) call at the $300K strike.
Deep OTM calls, also called wings, require a large move in the underlying asset's price to become profitable and, hence, are significantly cheaper compared to those closer to or below the asset's going market rate. However, the payoff is huge if the market rallies, which makes them similar to buying lottery tickets with slim odds but potential for a big payout.
Deribit's BTC options market has seen similar flows during previous bull cycles, but those bets usually didn't manage to gain enough popularity to become the second-most preferred play in quarterly expiries.
The chart shows that the June 26 expiry is the largest among all settlements due this year, and the $300K call has the second-highest open interest buildup in the June expiry options.
Explaining the chunky notional open interest in the $300K call, GSR's Trader Simranjeet Singh said, I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto and the 'wingy possibility' (no pun intended) of a BTC strategic reserve that was punted around at the start of the administration.
On Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis said in a speech that she's "particularly pleased with President Trump's support of her BITCOIN Act.
"The BITCOIN Act is the only solution to our nation's $36T debt. I'm grateful for a forward-thinking president who not only recognizes this, but acts on it," Lummis said on X.
Who sold $300K calls?
According to Amberdata's Director of Derivatives, notable selling in the $300K call expiring on June 26 occurred on April 23, engaging in the covered call strategy, which traders use to generate additional yield on top of their spot market holdings.
My thought is that the selling volume on April 23 came from traders generating income against a long position, Magadini told CoinDesk. Each option sold for about $60 at 100% implied volatility.
Selling higher strike OTM call options and collecting premium while holding a long position in the spot market is a popular yield-generating strategy in both crypto and traditional markets.
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