
CryptoQuant analysts have identified three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's price in the next six months, which will depend on the behavior of the Net Unpaid Lost Percentage (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios. These ratios, commonly used in on-chain analysis, measure the relative buying and selling pressure in the market.
According to their analysis, if the NUPL ratio breaks above 1.0 and sustains that level, it could signal a renewed impulse in buying activity. This move would be consistent with Bitcoin's breakout patterns in 2017 and 2021. In this case, BTC could rally to as high as $150,000–$175,000.
However, if the ratio remains in the 0.8–1.0 range, it may keep the market range-bound. In this scenario, BTC could trade between $90,000 and $110,000 as participants are content to hold their positions but not increase exposure. This scenario aligns with the base case in which moderate buying pressure and no correction are expected.
Conversely, if the NUPL ratio drops below 0.75, it could indicate that short-term holders are realizing profits, which might trigger a market correction. This correction could push prices as low as the $70,000–$85,000 zone.
"We can expect the first two (bullish and base case) to be statistically more likely. This is due to the fact that one correction has already occurred in 2023," said CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
Overall, the direction of Bitcoin's price in the coming months will depend on how these on-chain indicators evolve and the broader macroeconomic trends.
부인 성명:info@kdj.com
제공된 정보는 거래 조언이 아닙니다. kdj.com은 이 기사에 제공된 정보를 기반으로 이루어진 투자에 대해 어떠한 책임도 지지 않습니다. 암호화폐는 변동성이 매우 높으므로 철저한 조사 후 신중하게 투자하는 것이 좋습니다!
본 웹사이트에 사용된 내용이 귀하의 저작권을 침해한다고 판단되는 경우, 즉시 당사(info@kdj.com)로 연락주시면 즉시 삭제하도록 하겠습니다.