Despite Mounting Delays, Bloomberg Analysts Project 75% to 90% Approval Chances for Key Spot ETFs

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing several key exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with final decisions expected to be pushed further into 2025 as the SEC continues to grant postponements across the crypto ETF landscape.

According to the latest projections from Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, there is a 75% to 90% chance of approval for the main ETF applications.

Their analysis assigns the highest approval chances to spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto Baskets/Indexes (including conversions like Grayscale’s GBTC), each with a 90% likelihood.

The SEC’s positive view of LTC and SOL as commodities, and their ties to regulated futures markets, likely factor into these optimistic projections. All three have also already had their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, with final SEC deadlines ranging from July to October this year.

"Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening," Balchunas wrote in a recent X post.

Main Pending ETF Applications & Final SEC Deadlines

LTC (LIT) / Final SEC Deadline: July 10

SOL (SLVH) / Final SEC Deadline: Oct. 5

Baskets/Indexes (e.g., Grayscale's GBTC conversion) / Final SEC Deadline: July 12

The analysts assign a slightly lower 85% chance of approval for Ripple (XRP). The eventual outcome for XRP is still likely tied to how regulators categorize it—particularly after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced in April 21 that it considers XRP a regulated asset for futures markets.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) are each assigned an 80% chance of approval, while Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) trail slightly behind with a 75% chance of approval.

While approval odds are rather high, the SEC continues to issue delays across the crypto ETF landscape. On April 29, the SEC postponed decisions on several applications: Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF, now facing a final deadline of Oct. 7, and its spot XRP ETF, with a deadline of Nov 5. Grayscale's spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise's Dogecoin ETF were also delayed, both now set for final rulings by Oct. 8. In addition, the SEC deferred a decision on the staking provisions tied to Fidelity's spot Ethereum ETF, though a final deadline for that proposal has yet to be announced.

On April 24, the SEC had also delayed decisions on Bitwise's spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, as well as Canary Capital's Hedera ETF. The new deadlines for those filings are set for June 10 and June 11, respectively.