Bitcoin defies expectations in April, delivering double-digit gains while posting lower volatility than major traditional assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) defied expectations in April by delivering double-digit gains while also posting lower volatility than major traditional assets, new analysis shows.

According to analysts at Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin’s realized volatility over the past 10 trading sessions dropped to 43.86, placing it below the S&P 500’s 47.29 and the Nasdaq 100’s 51.26 — an unusual “positioning for a digital asset traditionally known for its outsized volatility.”

The data point comes in the backdrop of renewed financial turbulence since US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2.

Nasdaq Composite is flat, Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped nearly 4%, and even gold (typically a safe haven) briefly hit $3,500 per ounce before pulling back to a 5.75% gain, Galaxy Digital analysts said in a May 12 note.

However, they noted that Bitcoin surged 11% in the same period, reinforcing its evolving role as a macro hedge amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.

Bitcoin's correlation with major indexes declines

The analysts noted that Bitcoin still maintains elevated 30-day correlations with major indexes, around 0.62 with the S&P and 0.64 with the Nasdaq. But its beta has declined, signaling that investors may be treating it less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term allocation.

“Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset means an investor doesn’t need the full faith or tax basis of a nation to support the integrity of the asset,” said Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy.

Galaxy said that the recent investor behavior mirrors what was observed during the 2018–2019 US-China trade tensions when Bitcoin rallied amid rising global uncertainty.

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that surging ETF inflows and Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases are helping reshape Bitcoin into a digital version of gold, less tied to equities.

“As institutions deepen liquidity, volatility drops, making Bitcoin a cornerstone for portfolios,” Huang added.

Institutions view Bitcoin as hedge

Meanwhile, Galaxy’s OTC trading desk said the market posture is “tactically cautious but structurally constructive,” marked by disciplined leverage and low hedging stress.

With 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply already mined and growing interest from institutions, ETFs and even governments, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a digital store of value.

“Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics are solidifying its place as a mature digital store of value,” said Ian Kolman, co-portfolio manager at Galaxy.

On April 25, Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of thematics and active ETFs, said there has been a long-term trend in which countries have been reducing their reliance on dollar-based reserves in favor of assets like gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.

He noted that geopolitical fragmentation is fueling demand for uncorrelated assets, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed alongside gold as a safe-haven asset.