Summary of Bitcoin social risks and regression analysis of retail investors. we need to pay attention to the Fed's policy trends and changes in market liquidity

Bitcoin Social Risk and Regression Analysis of Retail Investors Summary of Core Concepts: Definition of Social Risk Indicators and Constituting Social Risk is a comprehensive indicator to measure the interests of retail investors in the crypto market. It consists of the following 5 data dimensions: The number of subscriptions and viewings of YouTube channels in the crypto field. The growth of followers of analysts, exchanges and Layer1 projects on the X platform (formerly Twitter) has been standardized (0-1 range). The current social risk value is only 0.009, far lower than the peak of 0.9 in 2021. Historical comparison of the 2017-2018 cycle: social risks exceeded 0.8, and the market popularity was significant. 2021 Cycle: Driven by the loose epidemic policy, social risks soared to above 0.9, and retail investors' interest reached its peak. Current cycle (2023-2024): Social risks have only rebounded slightly, the trend is similar to that in 2019, and there is no sustained growth. Key Observations and Conclusions Altcoins performed weakly Bitcoin dominance rose: funds continued to flow from altcoins to Bitcoin, and the Advanced Decline Index (ADI) of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has declined for a long time since November 2021. Ethereum is a weather vane for altcoins: its price is highly correlated with social risks, and the current sluggish performance drags down overall market interest. The core impact of monetary policy is similar to 2019: The current cycle experiences limited interest rate cuts (4 times) and quantitative tightening to curb risk appetite. The interest rate cut is insufficient: Historical comparison shows that another 65 basis points (about 2-3 times 25 basis points) is needed to match the loose effect of the previous cycle and trigger the recovery of the altcoin market. Data verification: Social media activity YouTube viewing: The current average daily average is 700,000, far lower than the 2-4 million peak in 2021. X platform focuses on growth: Analysts/exchanges have only 20,000 new attention peaks per day, and more than 100,000 in 2021. The number of tweets has not decreased: the frequency of posting of encrypted accounts remains high, but the number of interactions has dropped significantly, reflecting the transfer of interest. Future outlook and conditions turn signals need to wait for the Federal Reserve to clarify its easing policies (such as a rate cut of more than 165 basis points), end quantitative tightening, and stimulate demand for risky assets. The market needs to experience deeper "pain" (such as recession or liquidity crisis), which forces monetary policy to turn. Current contradiction Although the price of Bitcoin is close to its historical high (US$93,000-94,000), social risks have not rebounded simultaneously, as the "copy season" that retail investors have not yet appeared, and funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin. The long-term logical recovery of social risks will need to be accompanied by the explosion of the altcoin market, which relies on the return of liquidity easing and speculative sentiment. The current cycle has not met the conditions. The summary video reveals through multi-dimensional data: the current crypto market is still in the "bitcoin-dominated" stage, and the core of the sluggish retail interest is that monetary policy has not turned to looseness, and altcoins have not replicated the grand occasion of 2021. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed's policy trends and changes in market liquidity. These factors will determine whether social risk indicators can break through the current shackles and usher in a new round of cycles.