Is Merlin Chain's surge a trap? In-depth reveal of Bitcoin Layer2 black material and short selling opportunity

📝 Content summary: Hello everyone, welcome to today's in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency. Today we focus on Merlin Chain, token code MERL, a DeFi protocol that claims to enhance Bitcoin Layer2 capabilities through EVM compatibility. It claims to make Bitcoin more interesting, but is this craze so stable? We will explore its potential problems from five aspects: market performance, unlocking risks, technical disputes, bargaining distribution and regulatory pressure, and evaluate whether it is suitable for short selling. All data comes from authoritative sources, full of practical information, remember to follow! Let’s look at the market performance first. As of June 18, 2025, the price of MERL was about US$0.11, with a market value of US$80.09 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of US$28 million, up 7.53%. CoinMarketCap shows that its all-time high is $1.78, hitting a record in April 2024 and is currently only 6%. It fell 3% in the past seven days, performing weaker than the market average. The circulation volume is 725 million, accounting for only 34.52% of the total supply volume of 2.1 billion, and the chip concentration is relatively high. On June 18, 1.47 million tokens will be unlocked, worth US$160,800, accounting for 0.2% of the market value. We need to be vigilant about selling pressure. Second, the risks of unlocking and removing the shelves. Token unlocking often triggers selling pressure. Messari pointed out that the MERL unlocking plan will continue until 2026, with the team and early investors holding coins at a high proportion, and may sell in a concentrated manner after the vesting period ends. The exchange also needs to pay attention to the price of the exchange. After OKX removed RNDR in June 2024, the price fell by 20%. MERL trading volume is low, and if unlocking or removing the shelves causes panic, the price may fall. DeFiLlama shows that Merlin TVL has exceeded US$3.5 billion, and its market position is stable, but the short-term volatility risks are high. Third, technology and project disputes. Merlin Chain uses ZK-Rollup and decentralized oracles, claiming to improve the efficiency of Bitcoin Layer1 assets. CoinGecko pointed out that it relies on the modular consensus of the Base chain and poses a risk of smart contract vulnerabilities. In November 2024, X user DeFiWizard said that some BRC-420 assets have aroused community doubts due to the opaque pricing mechanism. DSM_BTC also revealed that MERL plummeted 70% in April 2024, suspected that retail investors suffered heavy losses due to the team manipulation of prices. Although smart contracts are open source, they have not been widely audited, and the risk of being hacked by Poly Network in 2021 remains. Fourth, chip distribution and signs of manipulation. MERL is allocated to community, ecology, early supporters and core contributors, with an initial supply of 2.1 billion. lookonchain disclosed that whales have frequently bought in OKX and HTX recently, and the trading volume accounts for more than 40%. The tokens unlocked on June 18 may intensify selling pressure. CoinGecko shows that MERL's RSI is over 70 and is in an overbought state. If the whale pushes up the price and sells, combined with the unlocking event, it may trigger a plunge, providing a window for short selling. Fifth, supervision and community trust. MERL is used for governance and staking, and holders can decide on network fees and validator allocations. However, X user bclaobai pointed out that the distribution of Launchpad activities in February 2024 was unfair, early participants made huge profits, and retail investors became buyers. Monke_face said that the project party has strong funds, but technical publicity and promotion rely too much on marketing and actual innovation is limited. In May 2025, Benzinga reported that the SEC focused on the securities attributes of BRC-20 tokens, and Merlin may be subject to restrictions and regulatory pressure may drag down prices. According to comprehensive analysis, MERL has a lot of black material: team manipulation of controversy, unlocking selling pressure, insufficient community trust, and concentrated chips. Its TVL and BRC-420 assets show cash flow, but the valuation fluctuates greatly and the hype is obvious. If unlocking or whale sells triggers a decline, combined with RSI overbought, the time for shorting may appear. Short selling requires accurate timing, and it is recommended to use quantitative trading tools to optimize strategies. For example, aibfarm.com provides advanced market analysis to help you capture price turning points and reduce risks. To learn more, please visit their website. In summary, although Merlin Chain has the concept of Bitcoin Layer2, the black material and unlocking risks may cause a plunge. Short selling requires attention to unlocking dynamics, whale trends and regulatory changes. Today's analysis ends here. If you like it, please subscribe. See you next time! References: CoinMarketCap, MERL price data, June 18, 2025 CoinGecko, MERL market data, June 18, 2025 Messari, MERL unlocking plan, May 2025 Benzinga, Merlin regulatory report, May 2025 🔍 Related searches: #MerlinChain #MERL #Bitcoin Layer2 #DeFi #BRC-20 #Short cryptocurrency #Blockchain #Quantitative trading #Whale trading #Investment risk