Today's story is not just a surge in the price of currency, but a secret code of the capital world. On August 9, Bitcoin broke through $117,000, setting a new record high; Ethereum also soared, breaking through $4,200. Just when the whole market was exclaiming that "the bull market is coming", a detail was targeted by keen people - Harvard University's endowment fund, the market value of Bitcoin ETFs held by it has exceeded its holdings in Google. This is not the pursuit of rising and falling by ordinary retail investors, but the long-term funds of top global universities are quietly exchanging bullets. And this bullet may be aimed at the firing point of the entire new era of crypto assets. Let’s talk about the market first. Ethereum ETH - breaking through $4,200, this is a rare chain of big positive lines we have seen after the 2021 bull market. One of the driving forces behind this is the sudden change in Washington's political trend: the Trump administration's attitude towards encryption policies has recently become warmer, and the regulatory tone has been significantly relaxed. This "policy expectation + liquidity spillover" has directly ignited the market. Then there is Harvard's action - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 13F document shows that the total market value of the Bitcoin ETF positions held by the Harvard Endowment in the second quarter of this year exceeded its holdings at Google. You should know that in Harvard's investment portfolio, top technology stocks like Google have long been the core position. Now that Bitcoin can surpass Google, this is not only a position adjustment, but also a turning signal of investment philosophy. The asset scale managed by Harvard Endowment Fund is as high as US$50 billion, and behind it is a complete set of mature asset allocation frameworks. What they buy is not just to make short-term money, but represents a judgment of the future. Think about it, how many levels of review does Harvard’s decision-making level need to go through to increase its holdings in Bitcoin? First, the investment committee must recognize the long-term value of Bitcoin, and then the risk management department must evaluate volatility and downside risks, and finally use real funds. This means that Bitcoin has moved from their "speculative products" list to the "strategic assets" list. Why now? Because the macro environment is changing: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, dollar liquidity, and global asset correlation are all forcing institutions to find non-correlated assets to diversify risks. Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attribute is being reconfirmed by institutions. Plus, this is not an isolated case of Harvard. Yale, Stanford, Texas teacher retirement funds, and even the California civil servant retirement system have also successively allocated Bitcoin or blockchain funds in the past few years. There is a strong "following effect" among institutions - once top funds enter the market first, subsequent funds will accelerate their entry, forming a herd effect. We can see more clearly from the data: According to statistics, the number of wallets with a coin holding cycle of more than 6 months continues to rise, and the on-chain activity is rising simultaneously, which means that more chips are locked and the market's selling pressure is decreasing. In terms of ETF capital inflows, in the second quarter of this year, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States hit a record high, with institutional funds accounting for more than 70%. Harvard's move to increase positions may trigger two chain reactions: adjustment of market pricing model - when top institutions determine that the value center of Bitcoin moves upward, the entire market will adjust expectations. Asset rebalancing effect – Other funds may be forced to increase their positions to avoid falling behind in their performance rankings. What’s more interesting is that this kind of capital action is often reflected in the price several months or even one year in advance, which means that today’s increase in positions may be an ambush for next year’s market high. Of course, we cannot be blinded by bull market sentiment. Bitcoin is still volatile, and short-term prices may see a sharp pullback due to policies and black swan events. Moreover, in history, institutional funds will also be settled at high levels and will not be increased unlimitedly. Especially before Trump's new policy is implemented, there may be a divergence between market sentiment and prices. Therefore, this wave of market is more suitable for medium and long-term investors, rather than short-term chasing the rise. What we see today is a signal that Harvard invests with real money: In their eyes, Bitcoin is not only a speculative product, it is becoming a long-term allocation asset of the same level as Google and Apple. And when such a signal is captured by the global capital market, the bullets of the bull market may have really been loaded. Next, how the market goes, maybe it depends not only on the price, but on who has more bullets and who has more patience. If you like today's videos, remember to subscribe and like our channel, see you all.
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