On the eve of the altcoin outbreak: Musk and Trump’s “mouth battle”. when ETH breaks through 3000. SOL ETF breaks the ice. short positions exceed 50 billion... Who will lead the 100-fold frenzy?
On the eve of the altcoin outbreak: When ETH breaks through 3000, SOL ETF breaks the ice, short positions exceeding 50 billion yuan...Who will lead the 100-fold frenzy? # 2025 altcoin investment panorama: political game, regulatory breakthrough and value reconstruction**The global crypto market ushers in a new turning point, and regulatory compliance and technological innovation reshape the altcoin investment logic**. When Musk's "mouth battle" with Trump spreads from social media to the cryptosphere, a blockchain change driven by political forces is quietly happening. On July 8, Truth Social, a subsidiary of Trump, submitted an application for "Blue Chip Encrypted ETF". In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum in the portfolio, altcoins such as **Solana and XRP have become mainstream financial products for the first time**. Three days later, the Central Group of the Party Committee of the Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on the development of stablecoins and required "exploring the application of blockchain technology in cross-border trade and other fields". At the same time, the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, and the world's first comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat stablecoins is about to emerge. The three major events are intertwined, and the altcoin market in the second half of 2025 is ushering in a historic turning point. --- ## 01 Political forces enter the market, catalyzing the fission of the market structure Trump's crypto layout has been upgraded from a campaign bargaining chip to a systematic strategy. Its subsidiary Media Technology Group has launched three crypto ETF products in a row within three months, and the latest "**Blue Chip Encrypted ETF**" includes Solana and XRP in its core positions. This move has a strong signal significance - **Altcoin has received mainstream political endorsement for the first time**. Although Musk did not directly participate, his X platform (formerly Twitter) has become the main battlefield for encrypted public opinion. The two's interactive tweets often trigger violent fluctuations in related tokens. **The deep binding between political narrative and crypto market** is changing the traditional flow of funds. The latest forecast from Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart confirms this trend: in the second half of 2025, the probability of **LTC, SOL and XRP spot ETFs being approved is as high as 95%**, with DOGE, ADA, DOT, etc. following closely behind. The altcoin configuration window for institutional funds has been opened. ## 02 Regulation breaks through, compliance channels accelerate the formation. The "Stablecoin Ordinance" launched by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sets three major regulatory breakthroughs: - **High entry threshold**: Non-bank institutions need to pay actual equity of ≥25 million Hong Kong dollars, reserve assets of 100% high liquidity assets and independently custody - **Offshore RMB empowerment**: Allow stablecoins anchored by offshore RMB, Tether has issued 20 million pilot 1 - **Technical Compliance Dividend**: Chinese companies such as Sifang Jingchuang and Hang Seng Electronics have deeply participated in the construction of cross-border payment systems. Although the mainland has not liberalized private stablecoins, the special study of the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in July will send a key signal. The meeting clearly required the exploration of "** application of blockchain technology in cross-border trade, supply chain finance, asset digitalization and other fields", and to form strategic coordination with Hong Kong policies. There are also signs of loosening in US regulation. The SEC is formulating general listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs***. In the future, the approval process for altcoins that meet market value, decentralization and other indicators may be shortened to 75 days. The breakthrough in compliance bottlenecks clears obstacles for the large-scale entry of institutional funds. ## 03 Technical breakthrough, the value revaluation of the new generation of public chains When the regulatory framework is gradually clear, altcoin projects with technical barriers begin to revaluate the value: - **Solana(SOL)**: Process 1,255 transactions per second, and the fees are as low as US$0.00026. V anEck predicts that its price may hit US$500. The first Solana staking ETF (SSK) on the first day of listing reached US$33.914 million** - **Chainlink (LINK)**: Monopoly on 80% of on-chain data interaction, cooperated with BlackRock to issue on-chain treasury bond products, TVL increased by 60% in 2024 - **Sui(SUI)**: Meta team created with a theoretical performance of 710,000 TPS, and received joint investment from Binance and a16z - **Avalanche (AVAX)**: The subnet architecture achieves efficient expansion, Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the price may reach US$250 in 2029. The common characteristics of these projects are: **Solution of pain points in actual business scenarios**. For example, Solana has become the preferred chain of DeFi and NFT development, Filecoin cooperates with NASA to store space data, and EarthMeta's meta-universe real estate transaction volume has increased by 200% month-on-month. ## 04 Reconstruction of investment strategies, from the grassroots era to the intensive cultivation and facing the new environment, investors need to change their strategies: **Three-dimensional screening rules** Become the standard: - **Technical area**: Underlying chains with TPS greater than 1,000 and Gas fee less than 0.01 USD (SOL, SUI) - **Policy area**: Binance/SEC compliance endorsement projects (such as Solana ETF) - **Liquidity**: Order book depth is greater than USD 100 million, and 24-hour transaction volume is greater than USD 10 million **Configuration logic upgrade**: - **Core position (70%)**: Focus on top projects with technical moats such as SOL and LINK - **Satellite position (30%)**: Layout AI-driven (Bittensor), RWA Track (FIL) - **Strict evasion**: Long-tail MEME coin (87% new tokens on the Solana chain survive for less than 30 days) 2 Cross-border arbitrage opportunities appear. Hedge single currency fluctuations through **coin trading, such as using BTC/ETH to make profits while reducing fiat currency exchange costs. ## 05 Trend Forecast: Three waves reshape the ecology outlook 2025 In the second half of 2025, three major trends will dominate the market: **ETF Summer is coming**: With the implementation of the SEC general listing standard, more than 70 crypto ETFs that are queued to apply may be released ** centralized release**. Unlike the grassroots temperament of DeFi Summer in 2020, this wave is dominated by Wall Street and Congress. **RWA (real asset tokenization) explodes**: Pantera predicts that the proportion of real asset TVL on the chain will reach 30%. JD-HKD stablecoin tested by JD.com shortens cross-border payment time from 2-4 days to second level, reducing the cost by 90%. Companies such as GCL Energy Technology accelerate the tokenization of energy assets. **Rise of offshore RMB stablecoins**: Hong Kong policy allows the issuance of stablecoins anchored by offshore RMB, and the scale is expected to exceed 1 billion in the first half of 2026. The digital RMB and stablecoins form a "domestic + overseas" coordination to help the internationalization of the RMB break through. --- **The most sensitive hunter in the crypto market has begun to take action**: ZhongAn Bank has early access to stablecoin reserve custody business, with a custody scale of over HK$15 billion; Sifang Jingchuang cross-border clearing system is connected to the 11-country payment network; HKDG, the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin tested by Standard Chartered Bank, focuses on cross-border trade. The regulatory arbitrage window is closing. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has made it clear that the first batch of stablecoin licenses are only limited to a few institutions that "benchmark bank qualifications", and if the US GENIUS Act comes into effect simultaneously, it may divert Asian funds. The altcoin investment in 2025 is no longer a gambling game in the grassroots era. When political power, regulatory framework and the triple variables of the technological revolution resonate, precise strategic design will become the key to winning. 3
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