At the Hong Kong Web3 Festival, I share why I’ve become increasingly skeptical about today’s crypto market — despite spending a decade in the industry, writing books on crypto valuation, and working in venture capital. In this video, I explain why traditional crypto fundamental analysis — from on-chain metrics to token valuation frameworks — has largely broken down, why altcoins are no longer behaving as they used to, and why chasing hype is not a real investment strategy. I also discuss survivorship bias in crypto, why over 99% of traders lose money, and the deeper structural issue I see with many projects focusing more on token pumping than product building. At the same time, I share why I’m not completely pessimistic — and what developments could make me bullish again. If you care about long-term investing, venture capital, Bitcoin, altcoins, and where crypto may be headed next, this video is for you.
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