Bitcoin 2025–2026 cycle path? With the cryptocurrency cycle superimposed on macro crises. can Bitcoin continue to emerge from its independent market? From on-chain data to the macro environment. analyze capital flows. regulatory trends and potential systemic risks. and reveal key turning points in the future market for investors.

Hello, everyone, welcome to this issue of Financial Observation. I am Romi. Today, we focus on one of the most core drivers of the Bitcoin market, the halving mechanism, and its profound impact on the Bitcoin price cycle. Text link: https://romiweb3.blogspot.com/2025/08/20242026_6.html Bitcoin’s halving mechanism is a built-in deflation design. For every 210,000 blocks, that is, about four years, the Bitcoin rewards miners receive will be automatically reduced by half. This means that the new supply of Bitcoin is strictly limited, and the final total is fixed at 21 million. This mechanism not only ensures the scarcity of Bitcoin, but also makes it a unique digital asset in the market and is known as "digital gold." Historical data show that the halving event is highly correlated with the bull and bear cycle of the Bitcoin market: The first halving occurred in November 2012, and within the following year, the price of Bitcoin quickly climbed from $12 to $1,100, an increase of up to 9,000%. The second halving was in July 2016. Although the bull market started slowly, at the end of 2017, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $20,000, attracting a large number of investors and ICO craze. The third halving was in May 2020. With the large entry of institutional funds and global monetary policy, the highest price of Bitcoin was close to $69,000. The halving has lowered the new Bitcoin supply in the market and pushed up market scarcity and price expectations. At the same time, the rising cost of miners has also reduced selling pressure, further supporting the price increase. However, the environment for the fourth halving cycle in 2024 is completely different from before. First of all, the participation of institutional investors has increased significantly, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved one after another, and top global asset management institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have made arrangements, and the capital volume and market depth have been further enhanced. Secondly, the global macroeconomic environment tends to shrink. The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, economic growth slows down, systemic financial risks rise, and credit risks spread, bringing more uncertainty to the crypto market. Furthermore, the game at the regulatory level is becoming increasingly fierce. Regulatory policies such as the US SEC and the EU MiCA have clarified the compliance boundaries of crypto assets, and the market compliance pressure has increased, and investors' risk preferences have been affected. In addition, the on-chain ecology is complex and differentiated. DeFi and NFT are uneven in sub-sectors, and funds are becoming more concentrated. The importance of stablecoins in the global cross-border payment system is gradually increasing, forming a potential hedge against traditional currencies. To sum up, the halving cycle in 2024 is no longer a simple technology-driven bull market, but a complex game market under the interweaving of multiple factors. The volatility is significantly enhanced, and investors need to deal with it with caution. It is worth noting that there is an essential difference between the Bitcoin cycle and the traditional economic cycle. The traditional cycle is driven by macroeconomic and monetary policy, while the Bitcoin cycle is determined by supply-side changes and market beliefs driven by the halving mechanism. Understanding the differences between the two will help us better grasp the investment logic of crypto assets. How Bitcoin and the entire crypto market will evolve under the dual influence of the halving cycle and the macro economy in the next few years is the focus of market attention. We will also continue to track the latest developments and interpret potential risks and opportunities for you. Thank you for watching. If you find this issue valuable, please continue to follow our channel. See you next time.