Why is Bitcoin a four-year cycle?

​​If you only want to remember one thing, that is: hoarding coins in a bear market, selling coins in a bull market, and reincarnation in a cycle, there is no need to worry. 01. Are there really "laws" in this world? In the stock market, people talk about macroeconomic cycles, industrial cycles, and market capitalization style rotation. In the currency circle, there is actually only one most important cycle - Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. It's nearly primitive, but it's awesomely effective. Bitcoin has been cut in half every four years. After each halving in the past, there has been a bull market soaring. It has been verified for three consecutive rounds: 2012 halving → 2013 bull market (from $10 to $1,000) 2016 halving → 2017 bull market (from $400 to $20,000) 2020 → 2021 bull market (from $9,000 to $69,000) It is not that every bull market is exactly the same, but: the core driving force is constant and the details are different. Therefore, this is not "technical analysis" or "K-line metaphysics", but supply and demand economics at the macro level. ⛏ 02. How does halving affect the price? The total amount of Bitcoin is limited, only 21 million. Mining means obtaining Bitcoin through computing power. The reward is reduced by half every four years, which means that the "new supply" in the market has dropped significantly. 2012-11-28 Rewards 50BTC per block for the first halving→ 25BTC2016-07-09 Rewards 25BTC per block for the second halving→ 12.5BTC2020-05-11 Rewards 12.5BTC per block for the third halving→ 6.25BTC2024-04-20 Rewards 6.25BTC per block for the fourth halving→ 3.125BTC the next halving is expected to be around 2028, and the block reward will become 1.5625 BTC. When the supply and demand relationship remains unchanged, the supply drops sharply → prices rise. But that's not all. There is another key point that many people ignore: Most Bitcoins have been taken over by the "coin hoarding party" and will not be sold at all. For example, now, there are only "450 new Bitcoins added every day" in the market, but among these 450 coins, most miners will sell them immediately after obtaining them and monetize them to operate. Therefore: the market must have enough buying orders every day to take over these selling pressures; once the selling pressure is reduced, the buying order remains unchanged, the price begins to rise; the price rises → speculative funds enter the market → trigger a chain reaction → the bull market starts. This is a seemingly simple but actually strict flywheel mechanism. ? 03. Not everyone can hold on to Bitcoin Most people make mistakes, not buying at the top, but panic at the bottom. Why? Because the two most common mistakes in the currency circle are: when you see the rise, you dare not buy it because you are afraid of "returning to zero after the surge"; when you fall to the bottom, you dare not buy it because you are afraid of "really returning to zero". So 999 designed a simple reference indicator called: ahr999 index. The design logic of this indicator is very simple: the currency price is divided by some weighting of the historical average price. ahr999 is greater than 0.45 → The market is seriously undervalued and suitable for hoarding coins; ahr999 is less than 2 → The price is seriously overvalued and invest with caution. This is not a prediction tool, it is a reference anchor. It tells us: Are you doing a cheap deal? ? 04. You only need to do one thing: you don’t need to become a genius, you don’t need to look at the K-line every day, and you don’t need to fight the dealer desperately. You only need to remember one sentence: Travel through four years and become a qualified coin hoarding party. The truth of this world is: only a very small number of people can be "unmoved like a mountain". In the bull market and the bear market, you will see: Many people get rich and return to zero; many people get in and get off; many people are firm in their mouths and clear their wallets. And if you start to invest in a bear market and still be able to hold on to a bull market, you have already won over the vast majority of people. ? 05. Conclusion: The cycle does not lie, and the four-year cycle of people who deceive themselves into Bitcoin has never disappointed. Those who are disappointed are often those who trade frequently and think they are self-righteous. Investing is not about intelligence, but about patience. You are not predicting the future, but adapting to structural cycles. If you can’t even hold on for a cycle, what about “financial freedom”? Finally, Nangong Yuan wants to say: Let’s meet in 2033. If you still want WeChat, then my WeChat official account, Minnan Gong Yuan, is still there, then you will still remember this article. Let’s leave a message to share how the world in 2033 has become.​​​​